Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
The wave off of Africa should be mentioned in the 2pm TWO, but probably won't be until tonight's 8pm TWO.

I guess so
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Dang, as usual, Levi is one step ahead of me.
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CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23917
304. Bonz
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Me too! Come on fall.


About a month and a half 'til the heat breaks for this season. Can't wait.
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302. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
.7N, .7W since last co-ordinates.


It'll be onshore by sunset....my guess.
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301. Relix
GASTON!

Time: 17:09:30Z
Coordinates: 17.7833N 59.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 379.7 mb (~ 11.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,003 meters (~ 26,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 455 meters (~ 1,493 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 88° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: -20.9°C (~ -5.6°F)
Dew Pt: -25.9°C (~ -14.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
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300. Relix
Gaston:

Time: 17:09:30Z
Coordinates: 17.7833N 59.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 379.7 mb (~ 11.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,003 meters (~ 26,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 455 meters (~ 1,493 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 88° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: -20.9°C (~ -5.6°F)
Dew Pt: -25.9°C (~ -14.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
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.
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Quoting Levi32:
Eye is developing.



Yep, and it looks like it is moving NW or maybe even a hair W of that. She's going to be on shore by 8-10 tonight inmho.
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Quoting extreme236:
Very vigorous wave east of Senegal.

It's future-IGOR
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010L/H/H/C1
MARK
24.10N/96.36W
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294. IKE
12Z NOGAPS thru 180 hours...
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.7N, .7W since last co-ordinates.
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Anyone see what I'm seeing?

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Quoting Levi32:
Eye is developing.

You can see it on visible too, although not as clear as on radar of course.

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Quoting Bonz:


Heat index here currently is 100. I'm hiding in my air-conditioned cave all day.


Me too! Come on fall.
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Quoting lennit:
#1 he is not named, #2 he is a low level feature #3 if he had been named and was deep layer feature he also would have recurved #4 he will not effect the East coast even if he does develop now %5 he will come from Carib IF was to effect the US

He was named, and is now officially known as Remnant Low Gaston. He is much more than a low level feature. He did not recurve since he was weak.
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Eye is developing.

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Look at me at the western edge! lol
Gaston looks good-ish.
Yes, I think it will look gooder by late tonight and officially get his name re-attached.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21037
The wave off of Africa should be mentioned in the 2pm TWO, but probably won't be until tonight's 8pm TWO.
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Quoting lennit:
#1 he is not named, #2 he is a low level feature #3 if he had been named and was deep layer feature he also would have recurved #4 he will not effect the East coast even if he does develop now %5 he will come from Carib IF was to effect the US


ummmm,
1)He was named(hince EX GASTON).
2)Does it really matter, He got to our side of the atlantic and is going to affect someone!

Chill a little!!
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...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT HEADS FOR THE WESTERN
GULF COAST...



SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ENE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


because this blog is full of misinformation and overdramatics

Its like the Jerry Springer show


Ugh isn't that the understatement...there is so much overdramatic and excitable behavior on here sometimes I just shake my head.
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Just north of Beaumont, TX it started raining about 11:00 CDT. Light gusting winds SE, with intermitant rain showers. Forecast is T-storms later this afternoon.
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Gaston is more then a simple low level feature, he has low level circulation with conditions becoming more favorable for rapid development as the air mass just needs to continue to moisten up more. Once this occurs, instability will increase and so will his convection. No need to downplay the potential ex Gaston has to become Gaston again and become a major threat downstream.
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17:23:00Z 18.050N 58.217W 886.4 mb
(~ 26.18 inHg) 1,169 meters
(~ 3,835 feet)

just now descending
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Send some to Pearland we are thirsty over here lol!

We do. My grandpa bought one after Edouard threatened to be a hurricane. Glad Edouard came about because otherwise we would have been looking for one and getting ripped off probably trying to buy one!


yeah, being without electricity is no fun at all, but at least with a generator you can have some kind of normalcy until the power is kicked back on. :)
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Quoting lennit:
#1 he is not named, #2 he is a low level feature #3 if he had been named and was deep layer feature he also would have recurved #4 he will not effect the East coast even if he does develop now


It is far too early to say where the future Gaston will go assuming he develops...
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Quoting hydrus:
Ex-Gaston.

Look at me at the western edge! lol
Gaston looks good-ish.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


because this blog is full of misinformation and overdramatics

Its like the Jerry Springer show
lol
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271. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Will she even make 5pm?


Central or EDST? lol.

I'm not sure if she'll be offshore but a few more hours.

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Quoting reedzone:


So we had a few recurvatures.. Doesn't every storm season have at least a few recurvatures? The pattern right now shows a nice ridge over the Eastern US after the strong trough pushed away. BTW, Hermine developed off the trailing edge of that trough, and got some help with X-TD11E. The GFS may be right in recurving Igor, but what about the storm behind it, did we not learn the pattern from Danielle and Earl, Edouard and Fran (1996), Fabian and Isabel (2003). This was not directed at you Storm, just explaining why I called it a wishcast.
,its not a question of if they curve,but where!!!;)
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Quoting will40:


17:13:00Z 17.850N 59.017W 453.1 mb
(~ 13.38 inHg) 6,661 meters
(~ 21,854 feet)

i agree i dont know why some say they are already in and taking measurements


because this blog is full of misinformation and overdramatics

Its like the Jerry Springer show
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7554
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Cool. But bad.
Ex-Gaston.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21037
Quoting Hurricanes101:


This storm is further away from landfall then I think some are realizing


On radar movement *looks* to the west, but without a good center it is very hard to say for sure.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Does depend on the west motion as well, of course.

Next co-ordinates will be interesting.
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Quoting KaNaPaPiJoSa:
Hermine is already affecting the Houston area...or, at least a small part of her off to the NE. Raining HARD at my house.


Send some to Pearland we are thirsty over here lol!
Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, I know what you mean. You have a generator? We got one after Rita for the just in case.....


We do. My grandpa bought one after Edouard threatened to be a hurricane. Glad Edouard came about because otherwise we would have been looking for one and getting ripped off probably trying to buy one!
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Quoting StormW:


Where did Gaston come from?
#1 he is not named, #2 he is a low level feature #3 if he had been named and was deep layer feature he also would have recurved #4 he will not effect the East coast even if he does develop now %5 he will come from Carib IF was to effect the US
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Quoting StormW:


What's your exact location?


Mauriceville,TX about 10-15 min from LA border
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes.


I do agree still, but not by much.

She's in a hurry to get somewhere.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


This storm is further away from landfall then I think some are realizing
Exactly. It's still around 96W. Probably will make landfall in the wee hours of the morning, possibly around midnight if it picks up its pace a little bit more.

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Quoting lennit:
i bet ya that not one Cape Verde NAMED storm can make it across the atlantic now the mid Atl trof refuses to go away and the Sub-T ridge is not strong enough to progress it along and with colder air already on the move and seasonal progression it will only dig deeper. one will have to stay weak and move under in the LLevel flow and develop in the SW atl or the Caribbean to effect the US


Again.. Nice wishcast but........ no
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Quoting AllStar17:
Recon. finding 35 mph winds well west of ex-Gaston.


With any consistent convection at all over the coc, that should warrant a TD classification, especially as it drawers near the islands. I'm not certain Gaston is going to do any "rapid" development, but the potential is there once it finds the lower shear, less dry air and filters out the infiltrated dry air from the system. With such a vigorous circulation and closer proximity to the islands, any ramp up at all in convection and winds could create a more serious threat, and quickly.

Again, imo, its better to err on the side of caution and awareness - safety, not classification is the key.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29608
Quoting RecordSeason:
235:

the western side is a tad weak right now, but yes, that is an eye forming. It should be solid within a few hours at this rate.

Cool. But bad.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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