Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 357 - 307

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Quoting HurricaneGeek:
For countries that are not the US, for example Mexico and Hermine how are warnings and watches posted?
Does the Mexican government request them or does the NHC recommend the Mexican government to issue them? What happens? Thanks.


Pretty sure the local weather services in the countries have government officials posted on what is happening. Im sure they give them a heads up on when warnings should be posted. Although I dont doubt at all that all these agencies communicate with each other, including the NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
356. IKE
1011.5 mb
(~ 29.87 inHg)


All east to ENE to NE winds on recon with Gaston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Well the system hasn't really done anything interesting for them to edit the TWO, lol. Basically, it keeps repeating the process of gaining convection and losing it a few hours later.


true. When gaston is over for real, looking back on it's track is going to be fun. You'll see a brief tack in the E ATL, then it breaks for about 250 miles, then it starts again. (most likely).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
After seeing the recon reports, it is clear the NHC is ignoring their own material, Gaston may be disorganized, but has a circulation with winds of 40 mph. Clearly amazing!


recon is just getting in there, the 2pm came out before, they did not ignore anything
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
For countries that are not the US, for example Mexico and Hermine how are warnings and watches posted?
Does the Mexican government request them or does the NHC recommend the Mexican government to issue them? What happens? Thanks.


THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

There you go, answered.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
After seeing the recon reports, it is clear the NHC is ignoring their own material, Gaston may be disorganized, but has a circulation with winds of 40 mph. Clearly amazing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For countries that are not the US, for example Mexico and Hermine how are warnings and watches posted?
Does the Mexican government request them or does the NHC recommend the Mexican government to issue them? What happens? Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
348. Skyepony (Mod)
Fun~ AF303 is flying Gaston at ~1000'. Must not be expecting much.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jlp09550:


"Gooder?" Aha, yeah, it should. Gaston doesn't look incredibly bad on satellite.

The hurricane center feels that Gaston will move into favorable conditions soon. It also seems every time we get something in this area, it starts to organize. It will be interesting to watch.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
~3hours late, but...

TropicalStormHermine's heading had turned westward to (2.3degrees west of) NorthNorthWest
from its previous heading of (3.3degrees north of) NorthNorthWest
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~25.3mph(~40.8km/h)

Invest90L -- 6hour intervals between positions
05Sep . 12pmGMT - - 19.5n95.7w - - 25knots - - 1005mb - - NHC-ATCF *19.4n95.6w
05Sep . 06pmGMT - - 19.9n95.7w - - 25knots - - 1004mb - - NHC-ATCF *95.9w
06Sep . 12amGMT - - 20.4n9.54w - - 25knots - - 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF
TD.10 -- 3hour intervals between positions (including the previous one and the next)
06Sep . 03amGMT - - 20.7n95.2w - - 30mph - - 1003mb - - NHC.Adv.#1
06Sep . 06amGMT - - 20.9n95.0w - - 35mph - - 1003mb - - #1A
TD.10 becomes TS.Hermine
06Sep . 09amGMT - - 21.6n95.0w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
06Sep . 12pmGMT - - 22.4n95.3w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - #2A
06Sep . 03pmGMT - - 23.4n95.8w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #3

25knots=~28.8mph __ ~26.1knots=30mph

Copy and paste 19.5n95.7w, 19.9n95.7w, 20.4n95.4w, 20.7n95.2w-20.9n95.0w, 20.9n95.0w-21.6n95.0w, 21.6n95.0w-22.4n95.3w, 22.4n95.3w-23.4n95.8w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

* Before the NHC reevaluated&alterered the ATCF numbers.
^ The dots preceeding the four line segments show positions that were measured 6hours apart.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
I think the NHC has just copied and pasted the same TWO for Gaston for the past 3 or 4 dyas. They just change the percentage part, lol.


Well the system hasn't really done anything interesting for them to edit the TWO, lol. Basically, it keeps repeating the process of gaining convection and losing it a few hours later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This lady's zippin' up quick, up to 60mph already. The joys of living on the gulf coast...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PtownBryan:


Wow you got struck? That is no good! I was in the truck, my friend was outside with the camera! Yeah not much happened when I lived there, however, when I went to take my entrance exams in 2003, I stayed in a hotel in Moore. That next weekend the hotel was destroyed by a tornado! Well have a great day I am out!

Yeah, it wasn't good that I got struck, but I'm ok for the most part (I think lol). Some odd hearing issues now and then, but that's about it. You have a great day also I'm out as well. Have a good day, everybody. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at the big pic on WV Hermine is eating away at the ridge pretty easily.


Afternoon Skye. So you are thinking She could head a little further N? That radar just seems to show more westerly component than I would have expected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
340. Relix
36mph surface winds so far on the western quadrant.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2647
I think the NHC has just copied and pasted the same TWO for Gaston for the past 3 or 4 dyas. They just change the percentage part, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting itrackstorms:


Flight level...


mine was SFMR
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
337. jpsb
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yep, and it looks like it is moving NW or maybe even a hair W of that. She's going to be on shore by 8-10 tonight inmho.
Lower Texas coast, good news for us up here in Galveston! Guess it's safe to go have lunch and a beer. BBL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


It'll be onshore by sunset....my guess.


Yep. I'd expect so.

She's not gone quite as north as she was trending, but the west motion as stayed the same.

Given herself an hour more over water, maybe.

If she continues... on this west motion... Give her say, .7W... She'll be at 97.2W (in 3 hours). Just off the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If Gaston becomes a system again judging by recon it will go straight to TS.

Colin-Gaston
Dejavu!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5627
Quoting extreme236:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HERMINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HERMINE
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
They are gonna wait for the 5pm to upgrade Gaston?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bonz:


About a month and a half 'til the heat breaks for this season. Can't wait.


Then people will complain that it's too cold, chilly, etc. I'm pretty sure humans have an ingrained need to complain about things.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Not according to the steering layers forecast maps for the past week, where the flow has been predominately east to west. You do look at those, right?


Storm, I've noticed that you have become more fierce these past few days. That's the spirit!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
330. Skyepony (Mod)
Looking at the big pic on WV Hermine is eating away at the ridge pretty easily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting portcharlotte:
STORMW Sorry you have to address this issue(not having a degree) but it does tend to haunt those who have the experience and expertise to forecast but do not have a degree. I have 14 years with the NWS as a tech..I can make forecasts based on data available but have always been quiet in modern times because of the lack of a degree in Meteorology. Without a degree it's not credible TO SOME PEOPLE to be too outspoken even if you have the ability to out-forecast a degreed met....I think you do a great job and continue to do so!




I worked at Energizer after getting my degree in ChemE at GaTech. Those techs there (without degrees) knew a helluva lot more than me about batteries and how they worked... especially in the real world, not in the nice theoretical lab. I left three years later and was still in awe at the amount of knowledge they had... as I am with Mr. Walsh. Keep on keepin' on Storm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
327. IKE
I don't see any west winds where recon is at on Gaston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If Gaston becomes a system again judging by recon it will go straight to TS.


Needs a bit more convection but yes it seems like it would.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
Quoting StormGoddess:

Whoa you almost got struck and it's on film! Wow I got struck by lightening once....on the phone....knocked my socks off let me tell you....should have listened to my grandmother about that one for sure lol. Oklahoma doing pretty good....we had that tornado outbreak for a day back in March. Other than that, for almost a decade now the tornadoes here have been very mild compared to what they once were. The stormchasers around here a couple of years ago were angry because of the lack of tornadoes to chase and many of them gave up in disgust about this area and they mostly hang out around Kansas and Texas more so now.


Wow you got struck? That is no good! I was in the truck, my friend was outside with the camera! Yeah not much happened when I lived there, however, when I went to take my entrance exams in 2003, I stayed in a hotel in Moore. That next weekend the hotel was destroyed by a tornado! Well have a great day I am out!
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Quoting Relix:
Gaston:

Time: 17:09:30Z
Coordinates: 17.7833N 59.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 379.7 mb (~ 11.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,003 meters (~ 26,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 455 meters (~ 1,493 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 88° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: -20.9°C (~ -5.6°F)
Dew Pt: -25.9°C (~ -14.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)


Flight level...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes12:


It need to get better organized.


just showing recon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Until recon gets in there were just guessing intensity at this point. I think Hermine is almost a hurricane.


Or near it, amazing to say the least.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HERMINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HERMINE
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If Gaston becomes a system again judging by recon it will go straight to TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Relix:
GASTON!

Time: 17:09:30Z
Coordinates: 17.7833N 59.2667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 379.7 mb (~ 11.21 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 8,003 meters (~ 26,257 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 455 meters (~ 1,493 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 88° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: -20.9°C (~ -5.6°F)
Dew Pt: -25.9°C (~ -14.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
A TS WOW lol weard
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, I think it will look gooder by late tonight and officially get his name re-attached.


"Gooder?" Aha, yeah, it should. Gaston doesn't look incredibly bad on satellite.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


It is possible. That wave is well-defined.


Yes. It's very well defined, I looked it up in the dictionary and it was there. =)
Very corny yes.
Thanks.

That wave East of Senegal could become Julia, which takes the nombre of Jeanne.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:
recon from XGaston

36.9 knots (~ 42.4 mph)
Tropical Storm


It need to get better organized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
conditions in lehigh acres, east of ft myers florida. thank god the humidity is 'only' 60% today, which is relatively low for summer.


1 sec ago
91.6 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph

Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.90 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 103 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Until recon gets in there were just guessing intensity at this point. I think Hermine is almost a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Anyone see what I'm seeing?




Impressive. Clearly see the eyewall closing off. Nice radar loop, 1900. Thanks.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
recon from XGaston

36.9 knots (~ 42.4 mph)
Tropical Storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great info Levi, great obs she is running out of time though. Too bad, could a hurricane please develop with favorable conditions for once, but not affect land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
The wave off of Africa should be mentioned in the 2pm TWO, but probably won't be until tonight's 8pm TWO.

I guess so
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 357 - 307

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.