Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Getting some awesome images from GE.

Recon heading in.

FULL IMAGE
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15916
Quoting CybrTeddy:

TCHP 2009 on this date.


2008


2007


2006


2005


Note, the TCHP map received a major upgrade in resolution after the 2008 season, so for '05-'08 it is higher than it looks.


I'm willing to bet that 2010 has the record for the highest amount of TCHP (If there is a record for that, lol.)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32226
Quoting Kristina40:
It appears she'll be making landfall quickly, she sure is moving.


She's making a run for the border.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Where are you? Pearland here. Just a sprinkle here so far but I see we have rain offshore getting ready to move in. Wonder if we will get some flooding like Alex brought...

Missouri City Hwy 6 and Ft. Bend toll road. Just had another one. Its been that way all morning.
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Quoting will40:


Link



THanks Alot do you happen to have the google earth link as well?
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Recon descending. Almost at cruising altitude.

182630 2533N 09452W 8280 01729 0104 +167 +140 155035 036 /// /// 03
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hermine has not peaked and continues to organized quickly. Her core is strengthening as seen on the latest radar imagery out of Brownsville, TX showing this very well. The eye or dry slot on radar is tightening which actually means its probably the formation of an eyewall and the associated eye.
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Right now, water vapor imagery as well as radar imagery shows some dry air from over Mexico seems to have gotten into Hermine's core recently.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Is there not a storm that has not shared a similar track yet with any storm? Good luck separating and following the tracks:

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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Radar really shows the eye tightening up very well right now. Also extremely deep convection is exploding on the southern side of the circulation.
A shot at minimal hurricane status is still possible.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is their any way you can compare the TCHP from 2009,and 2005.Thanks.

TCHP 2009 on this date.


2008


2007


2006


2005


Note, the TCHP map received a major upgrade in resolution after the 2008 season, so for '05-'08 it is higher than it looks but you get the picture.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
AL, 09, 2010090618, , BEST, 0, 175N, 572W, 30, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 170, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

Going backwards in pressure again.

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It appears she'll be making landfall quickly, she sure is moving.
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Hermine at 3.0:



Wilma at 3.0:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32226
Quoting RecordSeason:
Radar Estimated winds for Hermine have been declining recently.

Perhaps she has already peaked and begun to wane?


New burst of convection near the center on the latest frame.
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490. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Neapolitan:


Neither. 4.0 is a very strong tropical storm; 4.5 is, however, a minimal hurricane.


that would probably be JMA Dvorak intensity LOL

otherwise 4.0 is the currect hurricane status.
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Quoting TcuFrogs:
Band after band of rain here, south of Houston. Hermine wont move this far north, but we are going to get alot of rain.


Where are you? Pearland here. Just a sprinkle here so far but I see we have rain offshore getting ready to move in. Wonder if we will get some flooding like Alex brought...
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Radar really shows the eye tightening up very well right now. Also extremely deep convection is exploding on the southern side of the circulation.
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Quoting FeartheEye:
can someone post the HH Recon Link?


Link
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm going to try to set the record straight on Gaston. Yes, its pathetic looking right now (a little bit better organized than this morning) and surface pressures are high, but the circulation still exists. You could have a naked swirl and that is all that would matter for regeneration, take a look at this TCHP map.


Now, if the computer models verify Gaston will be moving into some of the hottest SST's on the face of the planet, with a low shear environment. Here's a water vapor image of the Caribbean, much more moist.



Computer models aren't regenerating Gaston but that isn't saying much, seeing as none of them developed Gaston in the first place. Bottom line, Gaston will not develop immediately, rather it will wait until it is maybe even south of Puerto Rico to do so.
Is their any way you can compare the TCHP from 2009,and 2005.Thanks.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
Quoting Grecojdw:


But if it does not go barely North of the islands, it will have to pass South of The DR to survive. It will be a very close approach to the South of the DR if it does go into the Caribbean AFAIK.


Gaston might clip Hispaniola, which might inhibit it but I doubt highly it will kill it, especially if its already a tropical cyclone by then.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
can someone post the HH Recon Link?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


they have yet to be on the south side of the system, has to be from something else

probably from that extension of clouds that goes off to the north from Gaston


probably
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I hope those in the affected areas are prepared for a lot of rain.

Even when Alex was a tropical storm, he had a bit less rain forecast than Hermine does right now.

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Thanks Hades, perhaps we will see a much stronger storm on recon, then satellite estimates.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm going to try to set the record straight on Gaston. Yes, its pathetic looking right now (a little bit better organized than this morning) and surface pressures are high, but the circulation still exists. You could have a naked swirl and that is all that would matter for regeneration, take a look at this TCHP
map.


Now, if the computer models verify Gaston will be moving into some of the hottest SST's on the face of the planet, with a low shear environment. Here's a water vapor image of the Caribbean, much more moist.



Computer models aren't regenerating Gaston but that isn't saying much, seeing as none of them developed Gaston in the first place. Bottom line, Gaston will not develop immediately, rather it will wait until it is maybe even south of Puerto Rico to do so.


But if it does not go barely North of the islands, it will have to pass South of The DR to survive. It will be a very close approach to the South of the DR if it does go into the Caribbean AFAIK.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm going to try to set the record straight on Gaston. Yes, its pathetic looking right now (a little bit better organized than this morning) and surface pressures are high, but the circulation still exists. You could have a naked swirl and that is all that would matter for regeneration, take a look at this TCHP map.


Now, if the computer models verify Gaston will be moving into some of the hottest SST's on the face of the planet, with a low shear environment. Here's a water vapor image of the Caribbean, much more moist.



Computer models aren't regenerating Gaston but that isn't saying much, seeing as none of them developed Gaston in the first place. Bottom line, Gaston will not develop immediately, rather it will wait until it is maybe even south of Puerto Rico to do so.
A lot of moisture ahead for it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Is 3.0 hurricane intensity or is 4.0 hurricane intensity.


Neither. 4.0 is a very strong tropical storm; 4.5 is, however, a minimal hurricane.
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Quoting will40:


they found some WSW earlier


they have yet to be on the south side of the system, has to be from something else

probably from that extension of clouds that goes off to the north from Gaston
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7803
473. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The DawnAwakening, 4.0 is hurricane status
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Band after band of rain here, south of Houston. Hermine wont move this far north, but we are going to get alot of rain.
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South Padre Surf Cam

Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7249
Quoting hurricanerunaway:


Thanks!!
I saw earlier that you are from Mauriceville...that's what prompted me to just go on and join! I'm from Mville too.

I'm hoping it doesn't get any more windy!!



well, I'm glad I got you to post. :)

I think we are good. The rest of the season, who knows.....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


???

my latest recon position still shows them north of the storm, all winds out of the NE


they found some WSW earlier
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Maybe Hydrus, but I will stick with a leaf stem.
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I'm going to try to set the record straight on Gaston. Yes, its pathetic looking right now (a little bit better organized than this morning) and surface pressures are high, but the circulation still exists. You could have a naked swirl and that is all that would matter for regeneration, take a look at this TCHP map.


Now, if the computer models verify Gaston will be moving into some of the hottest SST's on the face of the planet, with a low shear environment. Here's a water vapor image of the Caribbean, much more moist.



Computer models aren't regenerating Gaston but that isn't saying much, seeing as none of them developed Gaston in the first place. Bottom line, Gaston will not develop immediately, rather it will wait until it is maybe even south of Puerto Rico to do so.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24134
466. IKE
96 hour ECMWF...Link

120 hour ECMWF...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
2010SEP06 174500
CI2.5
1005.1
35.0
Initial2.5
Adjusted 2.8
Raw 3.7

--------
hmm 3.0 intensity


Is 3.0 hurricane intensity or is 4.0 hurricane intensity.
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Quoting will40:


WSW but no W as of yet


???

my latest recon position still shows them north of the storm, all winds out of the SE
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7803
Quoting SevereWeather:
Hello everybody!

Wanted to introduce myself and say thanks for all of the great inforamtion!

I just discovered this blog a few days ago. Except for the ocassional troll, it seems to be a wealth of information.

Back to lurking.



Welcome to WU! Where are you from?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


I am in the same area as you. Welcome....


Thanks!!
I saw earlier that you are from Mauriceville...that's what prompted me to just go on and join! I'm from Mville too.

I'm hoping it doesn't get any more windy!!

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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


Maybe a leaf stem, but as small as I will go.
A molecular woody rhizoid. Perhaps, maybe, A thip diploid. But that is as small as i will go.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21401
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
has the recon found a west wind at the lower levels in gus?


WSW but no W as of yet
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459. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2010SEP06 174500
CI2.5
1005.1
35.0
Initial2.5
Adjusted 2.8
Raw 3.7

--------
hmm 3.0 intensity
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Quoting MississippiWx:
And Igor is the one that gives me chills...Watch out for that guy.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17063
Quoting Levi32:


Gaston has a surface trough extending from him to the northwest and there is speed-convergence there due to a burst of easterly wind on his northern side that becomes slower downstream. This causes the air to pile up which forces it to rise, causing the thunderstorms you see to the northwest of Gaston.



SFC maps don't show any trough there. Marine charts don't show a trough. But interesting commentary just the same. If indeed easterly flow is piling up, I'm thinking we should see Gaston slowing and convection growing around the coc.

Again, I'd like to hear StormW's thoughts on the scenario there. Thanks, Levi.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.