Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2935 - 2885

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

2935. DarIvy959810
5:38 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting RecordSeason:
2301:

So is it "Ee-Gor" or is it "eye-gor"?

It's an Russian name
Quoting RecordSeason:
2301:

So is it "Ee-Gor" or is it "eye-gor"?

It's an Russian name
Member Since: May 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 171
2934. WildHorseDesertTx
4:45 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
Quoting hydrus:
Link???


OK, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=celia1970


Location (* - estimated)Max Sustained Wind/Max Wind Gust
Aransas Pass NNE 130 mph SW 180 mph *
Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
2933. hydrus
4:28 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
Link???
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21249
2932. Sfloridacat5
4:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6909
2931. Orcasystems
4:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You were briefly associated with Oz's operation. Untill he kick ya to the Curb SJ. I'm glad he did. And now you sound like a jilted lover. Dry up and blow away dude.

That was over the line...sorry.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2930. TexasHurricane
4:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Good morning all. I see we now have Tropical Storm Hermine and it is looking mighty impressive and going a little further north. It has been raining off and on here and getting breezy. I wonder if it will get worse here as time goes on. Stay safe everyone...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2929. TheDawnAwakening
4:24 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting 1900hurricane:


Looks to be developing a very tight inner core, eyewall.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
2928. Hhunter
4:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Link

track hermine on radar..you can see core on long range brownsville radar
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
2927. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
2926. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
2925. MiamiHurricanes09
4:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2924. Relix
4:23 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Gaston is truly making a comeback. Airplane over him.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2723
2923. WildHorseDesertTx
4:22 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.


That was at Corpus Christi International Airport, which is 20 miles inland of the bay, and 25 from the Gulf (Behind Padre Island). Weather instruments in Port Aransas (right on the gulf) blew off and stopped recording at 175mph, right after the eye passed over.
Member Since: July 23, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 107
2922. Neapolitan
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Here's another great shot of Things To Come:

Click for larger image:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13538
2921. 1900hurricane
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
2920. melwerle
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
ok, I just can't resist chiming in on Mr. Oz...Yeah, I'll watch his antics, and I also respect his right to do what he does. Cantore and others do it. What I have zero respect for, but what honestly gets me to watch is his sheer stupidity.

He chased a thunderstorm (94L)...Driving from NM almost to NO before turning around. His coverage of the OBX was very poor. For one, there was not daylight footage after the storm. He was drinking scotch the whole time he was at Hatteras which is just stupid. And now he's getting ready to drive from NM to Brownsville to cover a storm that even the NHC slower track says will be well inland by 7am tomorrow morning...And didn't someone say he was going to go live at 5am?

The sad thing is Oz has a good concept and people do want to see what happens when these storms make landfall. He is just about as clueless as it gets when it comes to "how" to do it. It is quite obvious that this is more about his ego than good journalism. And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.


Well said, SJ. I watched it the other night. I agree with you 100%.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
2919. Prgal
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Good afternoon. Is Gaston a TD? Link
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 921
2918. MiamiHurricanes09
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

It's a complicated scenario depicted by the models when it comes to these two waves and which one becomes the tropical cyclone. The GFS and NOGAPS depict that PGI41L (the weaker pouch located just off the African coast) absorbs PGI42L (the stronger pouch still over land and east of PGI41L). The ECMWF on the other hand does the opposite when it has PGI42L absorbing PGI41L. The CMC also appears to be on the same bandwagon as the ECMWF.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2917. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:21 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Alex
Bonnie
Colin
Danielle
Earl
Fiona

Gaston
Hermine

Igor
Julia
Karl
Lisa
Matthew
Nicole
Otto
Paul
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32074
2915. Couillon
4:20 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You were briefly associated with Oz's operation. Untill he kick ya to the Curb SJ. I'm glad he did. And now you sound like a jilted lover. Dry up and blow away dude.
Member Since: August 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 167
2914. luigi18
4:20 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Why would they investigate Gaston? Perhaps to see what is happening in the environment of Gaston.

they know something is going on!
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
2913. Orcasystems
4:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Two HH's. in Different directions.. inbound/outbound



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2911. hydrus
4:19 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Good outflow, especially on the western side.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21249
2910. Snowlover123
4:18 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2909. doorman79
4:18 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah,,yesterday was awesome here too,,but Hermine has brought the muggies back this am..


That she has:(
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
2908. Cotillion
4:18 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Looks like indeed it's approaching 24N, still 2 hours before advisory.

I wanted to see if it would be close to: 24.5N, 96.4W.

Looks like it.

If it continues, it'll make landfall around half 5 to 6pm at a guess.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2906. Vero1
4:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
GRIP's DC-8 is on the ground @ 17.7N 64.8W
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2905. TheDawnAwakening
4:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Levi, Hermine is developing some impressive inflow bands, or low level spiral banding is becoming more and more evident with each passing satellite frame.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
2904. Patrap
4:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting doorman79:
Good Morning everyone!

Hey Pat,
hows life on the southshore. I went up I-55 to Mississippi for the weekend. Woke up to 58 degrees yesterday morning. Was awesome!!!!!


Yeah,,yesterday was awesome here too,,but Hermine has brought the muggies back this am..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
2903. WeatherNerdPR
4:17 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:


Yet the one over water is not mentioned in the TWO.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5684
2902. txjac
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting angiest:
Been out of pocket this weekend but I just wanted to say (with apologies to Waters, Gilmour, et al) "Welcome to Hermine."

Hermine is causing some nice showers here on the far west side of Houston.


I agree ...kind of puts a damper on my plans but am thouroughly enjoying the rain!
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2526
2901. angiest
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Hhunter:


Hermine really seems to be getting it together.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2900. CaribBoy
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
NAVY/NRL has a TC formation alert for ex-Gaston (17.4N 55.5W)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6170
2899. Snowlover123
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yesterday:



WOW. And that is right in front of Gaston...
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2898. WeatherNerdPR
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting tkeith:
new avatar?

I can change it if you want.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5684
2897. doorman79
4:16 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Good Morning everyone!

Hey Pat,
hows life on the southshore. I went up I-55 to Mississippi for the weekend. Woke up to 58 degrees yesterday morning. Was awesome!!!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 895
2896. Patrap
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
2895. hydrus
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

Very, very impressive looking waves..And the anti-cyclones that are going to support them should make things interesting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21249
2894. TheDawnAwakening
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Why would they investigate Gaston? Perhaps to see what is happening in the environment of Gaston.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3901
2893. angiest
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Been out of pocket this weekend but I just wanted to say (with apologies to Waters, Gilmour, et al) "Welcome to Hermine."

Hermine is causing some nice showers here on the far west side of Houston.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2892. WeatherNerdPR
4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting tkeith:
new avatar?

Yeah.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5684
2891. MiamiHurricanes09
4:14 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting will40:
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

not sure what this recon is up to
Another Reconnaissance aircraft is investigating the remnants of Gaston.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2890. PELLSPROG
4:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:
Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:




Ho My Gosh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for the heads up
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 142
2889. Snowlover123
4:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting luigi18:
Here in Puerto Rico is a lot of humidity and the water in the beach is very very hot! not normal. this means a favorable environment for Jr Gaston.


A lot of shower and thunderstorm activity looks to flair up- the problem? None of it is near the center.

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2888. Hhunter
4:13 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
hunter craft going to gaston
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
2887. JRRP
4:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5837
2886. tkeith
4:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hi Wunderground.
new avatar?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8927
2885. charlestonscnanny
4:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

So was what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, did and countless others. If someone can't separate TV from their own reality/capabilities then they may just be up for the next Darwin award.

I'm a newbie with a new avatar but still Charlestonnanny. All of this freedom of speech is nonsense as Dr. Masters owns this blog and that is "freedom of ownership" IMO. When does a hurricane warning go up for storms? Than you all.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 107

Viewing: 2935 - 2885

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Rain
78 °F
Light Rain