Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting alaina1085:

Im pretty sure that state is VirginIA...lol
I think they combined virgin with virginia and popped out a name... are they getting that desperate?



Or they just got bored and decided to put a little ole southern draw into the spelling of virginia, lol.
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Hurricane watches issue
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Let's see:

1am: LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
4am: LOCATION...21.6N 95.0W
7am: LOCATION...22.4N 95.3W
10am: LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W

At that rate, it's going to be close to 24.5N by 2pm.

Hermine could make landfall by 5pm this evening.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Looks like Hermine wants to become a hurricane.

Are there any GRIP planes scheduled to be in it?

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Cyclone OZ is on his way to Brownsville!

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2530. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 23.4N 95.8W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb


Moved 1.0N and .5W again in 3 hours. Landfall will be sooner than first thought.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see people aren't as worry about Gaston as before....

I dont think its that, We are just watching Hermine also... a little closer to home for most of us.
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lets not get to excited hermine will be over water only about another 8-10 hours...
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2527. Patrap
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I see people aren't as worry about Gaston as before....
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Quoting Vero1:
It's a state isn't it?

Im pretty sure that state is VirginIA...lol
I think they combined virgin with virginia and popped out a name... are they getting that desperate?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
For anyone who hasn't seen it already...

Hermine is up to 50 mph w/ a 998mb pressure.

AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 954W, 45, 998,


That Hurricane Watch is there for a reason. Guess S Texas may be in for a gusty surprise this labor day.
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"...DUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
CHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
COAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN
MORE THAN EXPECTED."
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Yup, the hurricane watches have come.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2521. IKE
...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2520. Patrap
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)
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...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 23.4°N 95.8°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
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2518. Vero1
Quoting PELLSPROG:
Virginie vir-JIN-ee !!!!!!!!! Who has a name like this ??
It's a state isn't it?
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
2517. Patrap
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Quoting KanKunKid:


There are some interesting conditions in the Caribbean right now and the Sea is very, very warm. I believe we are all adults here with a pretty good grasp of how hurricanes form, so I would hope that you can give us the dignity of deciding what we ourselves will get excited about.



This is a weather blog, and everyone is free to give their opinion. I was not trying to take anyone's "dignity" away. Just stating my own opinion. You guys are free to give yours, and I'm free to give mine, please don't take things personal.
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For anyone who hasn't seen it already...

Hermine is up to 50 mph w/ a 998mb pressure.

AL, 10, 2010090612, , BEST, 0, 226N, 954W, 45, 998,
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2513. Patrap
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2512. markot
hurricane 23, why do you say things that are totally against all the facts...gaston is starting to blow up look at 1345 photos....
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2511. Hhunter
bastardi concerned about rapid feedback effect HURRICANE!

MONDAY 9 AM
IS RAPID FEEDBACK SYNDROME A PROBLEM WITH HERMINE.

I wont know till I can see the recon, which given the situation that has been apparent since Friday and Saturday.. the chance for mischief here, should have been in there before this. But this is expanding quickly and the chance for an Humberto like event is in the cards. Lets remember Alex exploded in here and though recent storms ( Dolly and Alex) were in my opinion under valued by the Saffir Simpson scale, the chance of this become a hurricane is growing with each step north its taking. Posts both here, and on the twitter I do, have been stating a worry about this for a while.

South Texas, and in fact as far north as the coastal bend should be aware that this could wind up fast in your back hard. Hurricane watches may be needed once we see what the recon says.

thanks for reading, ciao for now ****

MONDAY 7 AM

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see a possible Jeanne,and Ivan trio setting up.So far this season has almost been like 04 in a way,and we're using the same list!
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Quoting StormW:


Not quite. Go back and research a negative NAO.


Storm there's really no chance atleast in my take of things anything makes the trek across and seriously threatens the mainland.

The high is much weaker this year
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Interesting.

This has hurricane watches up.

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Quoting IKE:


I was going to say...looks headed for the coast.


Yep, could be good news because she wants to strengthen!
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LoL.

Hermine had a radar estimated 123kts flight level wind gust a few minutes ago...
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting markot:
look t 13:45 satt. photo gaston is blowing up....


WVLoop


At ~56-57W
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link?


Link
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


How could you say Gaston does not have the ability to strengthen? You can't say until he has totally favorable conditions. We all know dry air is inhibiting any significant development. But to say he does not have the ability is outrageous and comical.



Gaston hasn't developed convection throughout its life time, that would equal an afternoon sea breeze convective flare up in Florida, how much more ridiculous then would it to be to consider a model which attains it to category 5 intensity.


Keep in mind, Physics do just not support Gaston becoming anything significant right now.

I did mention nothing is impossible, but the chances are quite minute indeed. Therefore, Gaston should not be worried about.

The atmosphere would have to change radically throughout Ex-Gaston for it to have a chance at significant development into a strong hurricane. The chance of this happening, is very very low.

Not only is moisture lacking, but lapse rates are extremely weak around it, and overall instability just plain sucks.
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Just looking at Hermine with untrained eyes here, but....

From the looks of him, it wouldn't take much of a deviation from forecasted track and a little bit longer over water for him to achieve hurricane status. He's looking pretty serious right now.
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Quoting originalLT:
I don't think she will be at "minimal" tropical storm strength. I do think it will be a T.S., but one of 60-70mph when she makes land-fall near the Tex/Mex boarder.

I agree on the 70-ish mph.
At the acute angle the T.S. is approaching the coast I believe the storm will trend a bit further North due to the land friction on its west side. It will probably have a tendency to bump the coast a time or two before it finally goes in, maybe just south of Corpus.
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Quoting Cantu5977:



...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...



Looks like is moving faster than anticipated.


Link?
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Quoting StormW:


LINK


Storm, I found it. I went back to your page and clicked on the blog. Thanks for the info.
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Quoting Chicklit:


We're usually talking about storms that haven't formed yet :)
Like those ghost storms on the models.
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Quoting tkeith:
yeah, whoever named the storms this year got a hold of the wrong pan of brownies that day....

Hahahaha!!!
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TXZ248-249-252-061700-
/O.CAN.KBRO.TI.W.0003.100907T1800Z-100908T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-STARR-
819 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010


...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HERMINE MOVING A BIT FASTER AND INTENSIFYING. WIND WARNING
CANCELLED BASED ON FORECAST WINDS BEING LOWER THAN TROPICAL STORM
FORCE AND TIMING ARRIVING EARLIER.

PLEASE NOTE THAT ANOTHER WIND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED BASED ON
LATER TRACKS AND POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION. SUCH A WARNING WOULD BE
IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV FOR
CONTINUOUS UPDATES.


Looks like is moving faster than anticipated.
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2491. markot
look t 13:45 satt. photo gaston is blowing up....
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Quoting Jedkins01:



hey look, I'm just trying to inject a dose of some good old reality, not every system explodes in a active hurricane season.

Most tropical systems often give some indication whether they could become strong cyclones, Gaston just does not have the ability to intensify into a significant threat, no matter how good conditions become.


I won't rule anything out, and say its impossible to develop significantly, but the chances are quite low that Gaston will ever make any big come back. So its just not worth really getting excited about.


There are some interesting conditions in the Caribbean right now and the Sea is very, very warm. I believe we are all adults here with a pretty good grasp of how hurricanes form, so I would hope that you can give us the dignity of deciding what we ourselves will get excited about.
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Noticed the GFS still spitting out CV storms thankfully the bermuda high this season is very weak and that combined with a negative NAO spells recurve pretty quickly.
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Is that an eye?
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2485:

Yup, models seem to have nailed it. As it tightened up it took a significant westerly wobble, thankfully.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting KanKunKid:


No, they know.


I'm glad to hear that, KanKunKid. I remember my trips years ago into Mexico and the poverty in some places... I guess I just thought some places that are more remote might not know. With all the heartache they had already, it's sad to hear they will most likely have more.
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2485. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Hermine Update..Latest Video Blog.


I was going to say...looks headed for the coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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