Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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One interesting thing that I've noticed is that it seems like Gaston, as he moves forward, seems to draw the dry air in behind him? Is this possible or am I making stuff up?
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Gaston is NOT dead.
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Quoting markot:
stormchaser, hurricane 23 neither of you know what yur talking about, gaston is getting bigger better organized, plz get real ok.....


You must have a very loose definition of "getting better organized".

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Quoting fllamorgan:


People on here were just saying Gaston RIP an hour ago??? It's looking better I take it now.

yup

MoonlightCowboy = voice of reason
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Quoting Kristina40:
Well Miami, we kinda saw this coming last night when the pressure went all kinds of crazy ;)
Lol, yeah. The pressure was quite low so the winds were going to eventually catch up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Pensacola Doug-do you know what time Oz is estimated to be in Brownsville?
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Me thinks there's some confusion here...

HERMINE




EX-GASTON

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Frankly, I'm a bit weary of these systems with a penchant for defying odds. Gaston has been a fighter from the time in entered the Atlantic. It's consistently fought dry air, shear and doubt about its development. These "thorns" have a tendency to sometimes eventually getting their way, causing trouble for someone, somewhere.

I think we have to consider the basic conditions available, the storm's attributes, future possibilities:

1. closed LLC
2. vigorous circulation
3. 30 degree temps
4. diminishing dry air
5. lower shear approaching
6. generating convection
7. moderate forward speed 10-15 kts
8. westerly motion
9. unfettered tropical waters ahead with high TCHP
10. model support


Writing this system off yet would be remiss.
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Well Miami, we kinda saw this coming last night when the pressure went all kinds of crazy ;)
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2625. Hhunter
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2624. markot
stormchaser, hurricane 23 neither of you know what yur talking about, gaston is getting bigger better organized, plz get real ok.....
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2623. Patrap
Some where a curtain rod is bent, ..westward.
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2622. hydrus
Gaston looks frail at the moment. But it is in this area were they seem to pull it together.
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Quoting StormW:


You're funny!


Ha Storm! You'd think they'd get tired now and then.
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where is recon heading??? Did they forgot to pack there lunch??
Member Since: May 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like Recon is heading home.



Must have had a problem.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24508
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



GUIDELINES FOR CONVERTING BETWEEN VARIOUS WIND AVERAGING PERIODS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS


thank you! (you always have the links :P)
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Very impressive. Depending on how much time it has over water is the deciding factor on whether or not it becomes a hurricane.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting PR51:
well, right now Gaston is dead, fully and completely dead. Let him RIP.


Not 'dead' until that little LLC dissipates.
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Quoting hurristat:
Does anyone know the conversion between 10-min sustained winds and 1-min?



GUIDELINES FOR CONVERTING BETWEEN VARIOUS WIND AVERAGING PERIODS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS
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Quoting Chicklit:


today may be gaston's day.


People on here were just saying Gaston RIP an hour ago??? It's looking better I take it now.
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2611. PR51
well, right now Gaston is dead, fully and completely dead. Let him RIP.
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2610. Hhunter


we have a problem her..dvorak...
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Looks like Recon is heading home.

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2608. Patrap
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Quoting ozzyman236:
WEATHERGUY WAS THE ONE THAT SAID GASTON WOULD FALL APART..NICE JOB BOB..


next to your "a" key
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Quoting markot:
gaston is blowing up....getting bigger xstronger.....


Are you talking about Hermine?

ex-Gaston isn't really doing much of anything.

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Quoting itrackstorms:
Looks like RECON may have mechanical problems. They just turned around.


Looks like they are heading home.



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Quoting Chicklit:
Hate to bust your bubble Jed, but Gaston is taking off.


Agreed.
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Quoting hurristat:
Does anyone know the conversion between 10-min sustained winds and 1-min?


Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2599. hydrus
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Incredible how Hermine is developing !!!!!

the low near the Antilles looks like crap.
Hermine showing Intense convection near its center. Those greens are the top of the scale babeeeee..lol
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Someone had their cereal with extra sugar this morning...
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Hate to bust your bubble Jed, but Gaston is taking off.
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2596. markot
gaston is blowing up....getting bigger xstronger.....
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2595. Hhunter
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Quoting Patrap:


Thanks for posting that.
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Whoops... looks like RECON may have mechanical problems. They just turned around.

RATS!
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I'm wondering how close it'll be to 24.5N, 96.4W by next advisory.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2590. Patrap
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Incredible how Hermine is developing !!!!!

the low near the Antilles looks like crap.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Not looking so hot.



Who was the person who said "Now just watch Gaston fall apart during DMAX lol"? Now I know it hasn't completely fallen apart, but it is more disorganized than it was at DMIN yesterday. Even though it was a joke, props to whoever said that lol.
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and move on.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Uh yeah Hermine is a she...



Really??? That's all you focused on in the entire comment? He/She/It looks like it wants to be a Hurricane to me before making landfall. Any comment on the subject or no?
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i was looking at he gfs maps for next tuesday when whatever gaston will be. evidently the front that comes thru this weekend is lifting out.per posted image. now the question is will it plow thru CA or mexico? or a bit like opal stalls a bit and waits for the next trof/front.
it was only a few days ago that gaston was going to be a fish.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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