Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry Miami I have to disagree with you I see it at 16.5N 50.5W as well look at where you were talking about but don;t see it there at all
You may want to analyze the visible satellite loop of ex-Gaston.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Don't think we are going to have to wait long on that no named storms situation to go away.....

Agreed.
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Quoting btwntx08:

yes there is surface low there


yikes, looks like a TD may be forming then..

it has water to work with, and an awful lot of convection
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
I call that double trouble

Quoting Bordonaro:

Looks like 90L and ex-Gaston are slowly getting their act together..
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sorry Miami I have to disagree with you I see it at 16.5N 50.5W as well look at where you were talking about but don;t see it there at all
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Quoting btwntx08:

yes there is surface low there

Looks like 90L and ex-Gaston are slowly getting their act together..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
(wonders to self)....will it just...not post in six hours.......lol


Quoting washingtonian115:
The Gfs is taking it's labor day vacation.
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Im more than certain that the storm on this run will be a fish. Too North and too strong.
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Don't think we are going to have to wait long on that no named storms situation to go away.....

Quoting Neapolitan:
90L on the left, ex-Gaston on the right:

Click for larger image:
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Bingo MH09....I think the GFS was taking the long weekend off and drinking "ECMWF cola"

The Gfs is taking it's labor day vacation.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
The GFS is a funny beastie....

Developed it well when it wasn't doing much better (Yesterday, Friday)..

and now that it is, and gaining a better enviroment.....GFS kills it...lol. Just a reminder that models are not to be trusted until a system actually develops..

Notice that some small convection is over the center of ex-Gaston for the first time in days...


I agree Ex-Gaston is doing a good job against all of odds, crossing the dessert that have become the atlantic thanks to SAL and still have manage to hang to life. Of course if SAL weren't there Gaston would have become perhaps a hurricane as it was predicted by models when it first left Africa.
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I don't think it would be more than a TD when i pass near the northern island on Tuesday, but it would be interesting to watch and learn from Gaston.
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120. Relix
Gaston is definitely back!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2639
And to support the potential new "liftoff" of the Gas man.....



Animated

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Deep convection developing to the east of the circulation.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Deep convection developing to the east of the circulation.

well on its way to be reclassified.
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90L on the left, ex-Gaston on the right:

Click for larger image:
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
67 cYcLoN1C86 "blah blah blah..."

You do realise that your recent signup along with your presumption that we should trust you enough to click your link makes you look very much like a spammer at best.

Frankly my distaste for malware won't allow me to click that link to see if you are a blackhat.
And this site has been under attack for a while by such malicious hackers.
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Deep convection developing to the east of the circulation.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a TS at 72-78 hours.

This one is developing fast.
That's because it's name will be Igor.....
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19.8N 95.6W

around there, do you think there's a surface low?

I see a small tight spin
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


I live in Northwest Louisiana and I know my home needs the rain too. I just dont need it bad enough for me to ride out something in the GOM. No offense taken. :)

Thanks :O)..I hope all the bad weather steers to your west and the just dumps in all in TX and the LA..

We had 22 days over 100F last month, here at the DFW AP, averaged 5.1F above normal, which was 90.1F, one of our warmest August's in a wheile.

With only 0.6" of rain last month, we are short about 4" for the yr and it would be wonderful to have it all fall over 2 days this week..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting cYcLoN1C86:
Good afternoon Wunderground! I am as some of you know a senior in High School and will be attending Texas A&M in January. As a thank you gift, I would like to give my School 10 of these portable weather stations in hopes of them implementing Atmospheric Sciences into their curriculum, it may not work but I think it would serve a useful purpose. I am half way there to covering the costs, and to speed up the process I would like to ask you to sign up on this website and thats all! I am NOT asking for donations at all, just to simply sign up. I will receive 1 dollar for each sign up, and you have to do nothing at all but sign up using this link:

Link



Thank you all so much! I will be sure to acknowledge all that sign up! Again, I am not asking for a penny! Just for you to complete the sign up process! Thank you, I will be on later tonight with my first blog on Ex-Gaston, and other threats!

WHOOP!!!!! You're going to love it here. I'm currently a sophomore in the Meteorology program at Texas A&M.
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Never mind, what the GFS develops is PGI41L.

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Lots o' "tacklin fuel" out there, not to put it lightly...just hope it doesn't get tooooo strong for those of you in TX

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a TS at 72-78 hours.

This one is developing fast.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z GFS, 60 hours. Don't know why it doesn't develop ex-Gaston, especially since the environmental conditions in the Caribbean are favorable.

This is why some models are a joke.And remmeber how some models didn't pick up on gaston before it foremd,and after it formed.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Yeah, Swirl....I know....(smiling). My comment sounded much harsher than it was meant. I was kinda pokin fun too, sorry bout that




I see where you came from now, lol. Kinda slow this AM, err PM already?
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Bingo MH09....I think the GFS was taking the long weekend off and drinking "ECMWF cola"

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z GFS, 60 hours. Don't know why it doesn't develop ex-Gaston, especially since the environmental conditions in the Caribbean are favorable.

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Probably and bad for us is over the Antilles
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a developing TD off of Africa at 60 hours on the 12z GFS
That's PGI42L's pouch merging with PGI41L's pouch to develop into a tropical cyclone. At least that's what the GFS appears to do.
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Looks like a TS at 72-78 hours.

This one is developing fast.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I am hoping for the moisture here in N TX. I truly hope you are safe, and the storm steers clear of your area, nothing more than some good warm rains...


I live in Northwest Louisiana and I know my home needs the rain too. I just dont need it bad enough for me to ride out something in the GOM. No offense taken. :)
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Don't mean to get all "local" or anything...but hey.

there is a "blobby thingy" out in the gulf lookin to ruin my holiday weekend

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I say gaston will follow the OFCL track
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12z GFS, 60 hours. Don't know why it doesn't develop ex-Gaston, especially since the environmental conditions in the Caribbean are favorable.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The long-range GFS ensembles take it through the Gulf. Not really reliable at the moment though.




Thanks for the reply Stormchaser.
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=PGI38L&zoom=4&im g=1&vars=000000000000000111&loop=0http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/storm.php?&ba sin=atlantic&sname=PGI38L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=000000000000000111&loop=0
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Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


I hope NOT. Im sitting on an Oil Platform in the Western GOM!
Already getting storm cells from it.

I am hoping for the moisture here in N TX. I truly hope you are safe, and the storm steers clear of your area, nothing more than some good warm rains...
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Looks like a developing TD off of Africa at 60 hours on the 12z GFS
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


COC definitely covered now and looks to be around 50.5W and 16.5N. MH09, help me out here please, am I seeing the coc in the right place ?
Gaston is defentally getting better organized.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


COC definitely covered now and looks to be around 50.5W and 16.5N. MH09, help me out here please, am I seeing the coc in the right place ?


I actually saw the spin very unexpectedly "backtrack" on the visible. Gaston is winding up very well now.

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Quoting Goldenblack:
Jeesh, good thing 90L doesn't get more time over water, may do something as it is..



90L, you are cordially invited to move north and bring TX rain, thanks!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting cYcLoN1C86:
Good afternoon Wunderground! I am as some of you know a senior in High School and will be attending Texas A&M in January. As a thank you gift, I would like to give my School 10 of these portable weather stations in hopes of them implementing Atmospheric Sciences into their curriculum, it may not work but I think it would serve a useful purpose. I am half way there to covering the costs, and to speed up the process I would like to ask you to sign up on this website and thats all! I am NOT asking for donations at all, just to simply sign up. I will receive 1 dollar for each sign up, and you have to do nothing at all but sign up using this link:

Link



Thank you all so much! I will be sure to acknowledge all that sign up! Again, I am not asking for a penny! Just for you to complete the sign up process! Thank you, I will be on later tonight with my first blog on Ex-Gaston, and other threats!
Done and good luck.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Good, hope 90L ramps up and becomes a strong TS and moves inland N or Brownsville, TX. The SE TX area intp N TX needs this rain :O).


I hope NOT. Im sitting on an Oil Platform in the Western GOM!
Already getting storm cells from it.
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Jeesh, good thing 90L doesn't get more time over water, may do something as it is..


Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005

Pressure coming down quick
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Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 956W, 25, 1005

Good, hope 90L ramps up and becomes a strong TS and moves inland N or Brownsville, TX. The SE TX area intp N TX needs this rain :O).
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.