Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 185 - 135

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index



Wrapping up pretty good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kristina40:
It appears this season is peaking.


Based on what, exactly? We may be close to the climatological "peak" of the season, but based on all indicators, we're barely a third of the way through this particular year.

My seasonal forecast hasn't changed since July: 20/12/6/180. (Yes, that means 13/9/4/118 to go. We'll get there, I think, or pretty darn close.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh no you did not just give us the "NAM" did you?

lol

Quoting Bordonaro:
NAM 54 HRS has a weak TS making landfall on the lower TX coast

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Ex gaston a TS at 5pm? Looking impressive now COC covered 16.8N/50.6W due west now imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Tampa..."blobby thingy" is getting bigger....coming to rain on our labor parade...

Radar Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Can we finally get a storm with two actual outflow channels, one equatorward and one poleward and not be bothered with land interaction once they develop. I mean it seemed like 2005 had storms developing with two very distinct outflow channels and this year it is the year of one, poleward.

I agree and see this one recurving by day 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NAM 54 HRS has a weak TS making landfall on the lower TX coast

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


While some worry, the majority of the population goes about their daily business completely unaware of the topics. lol

Most the people I know don't even think about tropical storms unless the local news starts hyping them up.


yep.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can we finally get a storm with two actual outflow channels, one equatorward and one poleward and not be bothered with land interaction once they develop. I mean it seemed like 2005 had storms developing with two very distinct outflow channels and this year it is the year of one, poleward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Except for the possibility of "Gaston" doing so, the chances of any Cape Verde storms reaching the U.S. is diminishing day by day as the fall season approaches and the troughs from Canada into the eastern U.S. continue to gradually get stronger. U.S. threats are going to be limited to home grown products as well as storms which form in the Caribbean/Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TruthCommish:


I can't imagine being that panicky. I must be getting old or maybe I have an imaginary xanax I.V. drip.


Panicky? Should I be happy all these storms are popping up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TruthCommish:


I can't imagine being that panicky. I must be getting old or maybe I have an imaginary xanax I.V. drip.


While some worry, the majority of the population goes about their daily business completely unaware of the topics. lol

Most the people I know don't even think about tropical storms unless the local news starts hyping them up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Probably be a couple of hours before we have any idea if anything is to be upgraded (unless the TWO is specific towards any upgrade).

Back to far out tropical waves?

Beyond the sea... there's something waiting for...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MH09, so the 12z GFS develops both waves?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You may want to analyze the visible satellite loop of ex-Gaston.
I know that you know more than me but I don't think it is at 17N yet either. Looks more like it is just pulling the convection over it like a blanket.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
yea ok Miami but it not at 17.0N it nore like at 16.8N 51.0W ans if you look on the last two frams it looks as if it shifted SW to more like 16.79N 51.01W anyway starting to see a lot of red



Can't use rainbow mode to decipher the center's position. Try using this:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html

Clearly at 17 N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kristina40:
It appears this season is peaking. The blob over Africa is terrifying. I think Storm posted a pic of it this morning. Gaston has me worried as well, it's like an invasion.


I can't imagine being that panicky. I must be getting old or maybe I have an imaginary xanax I.V. drip.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
??? If he has a built in High breaker maybe, he is not strong...and thus the 400mb to 850mb steering currents will not allow for that much northly motion...if he does get stronger...it will be after the weakness passes away.....

CIMSS steering layers loop 400-850mb

Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks like Gaston could be another threat for Bermuda in the longrun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
163. IKE
138 hr. 12Z GFS....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gaston was at 16.5 N, but now it's at 17 N. Occasional jogs to the north will make the BAMB models correct. Gaston may travel just north of the islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yea ok Miami but it not at 17.0N it nore like at 16.8N 51.0W ans if you look on the last two frams it looks as if it shifted SW to more like 16.79N 51.01W anyway starting to see a lot of red

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


it does?

just about all the models take Gaston straight west into the Caribbean Islands
LOL, those type of statements just make me laugh...I guess they just post them to aggravate us. (Not yours, the one you quoted).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Kristina40:
It appears this season is peaking. The blob over Africa is terrifying. I think Storm posted a pic of it this morning. Gaston has me worried as well, it's like an invasion.
Because the bad boys of the season are forming (Gaston,and igor)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks like Gaston could be another threat for Bermuda in the longrun.


it does?

just about all the models take Gaston straight west into the Caribbean Islands
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoria780:
I think a center is trying to form somewhere near 22n and 94w on 90l..Which would put it further east and north
Didnt even read Bastardis comment.Looked at visible satellite motion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
141:
Intensity of Hermine is possibly 980mb(cat 2?)
and she is landfalling...bad news
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wasn't there a show "Eerie Indiana"? lol. Waay too landlocked for this blog.

Quoting TruthCommish:


No. It's a “eerie” silence in the Atlantic that exasperates the wish-casters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


I thought the other wave behind it was the one the models are developing instead.
Nah, it's PGI41L. The one behind it (PGI42L) won't emerge for another 60-72 hours. The GFS has it as a tropical depression/tropical storm off of the coast of Africa by that time frame.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Looks like Gaston could be another threat for Bermuda in the longrun.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Guatemala mudslides kill at least 28; 2 buses hit

(AP) – 45 minutes ago

GUATEMALA CITY — Torrential rains from a tropical depression caused mudslides that have killed at least 28 people in Guatemala — most of them in separate disasters along the same highway.

The first highway slide near midday Saturday partially buried a bus under tons of mud at kilometer marker 81 on a highway leading northwest of the capital toward Mexico.Officials said at least 12 people died. That led President Alvaro Colom to declare a national emergency.

...
Heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11-E have pelted Guatemala for days, unleashing deadly mudslides in several areas, cutting highways and forcing officials to evacuate thousands of people.




That's awful Caicos. A grim reminder that a storm doesn't have to be a Hurricane or even a TS to cause death and destruction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
NAM 60hrs...
Link
I think a center is trying to form somewhere near 22n and 94w on 90l..Which would put it further east and north
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
latest bastardi


SUNDAY 10 AM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF.

The data buoy near 22 north and 94 west has had its wind turn from east with gusts to 35 mph to south, though only at around 10 kts but the pressure is down to 1005.7 and is falling against the rise indicating to me a tropical depression is starting to form. Depending on where the center develops, this is something that should concern residents of deep south Texas. Obviously the WRF is wildest about this, but this is contingent on the development being further out over the water, something the global models arent seeing.

And then there is gaston, which my strict interpretation is a depression, but has essentially continued west unchanged It will be in the islands by Tuesday afternoon.

I feel the most likely track for the developing tropical cyclone in the gulf will be into northeast Mexico close to where Alex came ashore. But lets see where a center can get established first.

Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting ClearwaterRain:
wow its like a erie silence in the Atlantic.....kinda like the calm before the BIG one ?


No. It's a “eerie” silence in the Atlantic that exasperates the wish-casters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gaston is heading headlong into the peak of hurricane season.



The former storms stabilized waters to the north of Gaston. However, the Caribbean is the opposite and Gaston is going to bite off a chunk of new energy to the west. Prepare for turbulence!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes, and here is another thing I see too...ULL is moving away and sheer is falling (use the +/- 3 buttons at top left)

CIMSS Sheer Tendency

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Gaston will soon be entering an area with a little more moisture to work with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:

90L should not become anything more than a TS. I saw a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) on the blog about 1 hr ago concerning the possible "H" storm. TX & LA need her rains badly.

Ex-Gaston may become a big problem if he develops in the moist Caribbean tropical environment.
It's always those sneaky G storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears this season is peaking. The blob over Africa is terrifying. I think Storm posted a pic of it this morning. Gaston has me worried as well, it's like an invasion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure should get mentioned in the 2pm TWO. This is the disturbance that has been constantly turned into a hurricane by the GFS...and you can see why...very vigorous. Yeah, it's 'quiet' now...probably won't be in 3-4 days.



I thought the other wave behind it was the one the models are developing instead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NAM 60hrs...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guatemala mudslides kill at least 28; 2 buses hit

(AP) – 45 minutes ago

GUATEMALA CITY — Torrential rains from a tropical depression caused mudslides that have killed at least 28 people in Guatemala — most of them in separate disasters along the same highway.

The first highway slide near midday Saturday partially buried a bus under tons of mud at kilometer marker 81 on a highway leading northwest of the capital toward Mexico.Officials said at least 12 people died. That led President Alvaro Colom to declare a national emergency.

...
Heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11-E have pelted Guatemala for days, unleashing deadly mudslides in several areas, cutting highways and forcing officials to evacuate thousands of people.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gaston will soon be entering an area with a little more moisture to work with.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
I call that double trouble


90L should not become anything more than a TS. I saw a TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) on the blog about 1 hr ago concerning the possible "H" storm. TX & LA need her rains badly.

Ex-Gaston may become a big problem if he develops in the moist Caribbean tropical environment.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Im more than certain that the storm on this run will be a fish. Too North and too strong.
well see what the next model runs show.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry Miami I have to disagree with you I see it at 16.5N 50.5W as well look at where you were talking about but don;t see it there at all
You may want to analyze the visible satellite loop of ex-Gaston.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

Viewing: 185 - 135

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
62 °F
Overcast