Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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285. Vero1
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...


The CMC makes a pretty face at the end of the run.

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Quoting btwntx08:

then why is there a tcfa on it and its 60% right now could get higher within the hr


It is starting to look like a Depression. That's what I said, and it explains the 60% on it.

-Snow
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
yo
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There are two borderline disturbances/TD's out there and the blog is quiet. I'd never thought I'd see it.


Labor Day Weekend, maybe had plans? Which I obviously don't...
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hi
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the blog's kinda dead.


easily the deadest it's been in awhile it seems ha
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the blog's kinda dead.


There are two borderline disturbances/TD's out there and the blog is quiet. I'd never thought I'd see it.
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278. IKE
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...

...........................................

Ex-Gaston on IR...

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hello?


Hello, CybrTeddy
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hello?
Yeah, the blog's kinda dead.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hello?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Very very unclear though, like a Depression.

then why is there a tcfa on it and its 60% right now could get higher within the hr
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
'Low' Gaston?

He musta been a jazz musician sometime.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Lot'so bad mojo in front of Gaston.




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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There's a surface circulation...look at how the low level clouds rotate cyclonically. The pressure of the low is 1005mb by the way.


Very very unclear though, like a Depression.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting btwntx08:


ahh there is a 1005 mb low


Vorticy appears to be elongated, indicating a broad area of low pressure, which usually takes longer to develop.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Snowlover123:
Upper Level Divergence and Lower Level Convergence have gotten better, which could explain all of the clouds, and recent pop up-thunderstorms, associated with both systems.





Voritcy is also good with both systems; especially ex-Gaston.



I don't see the beginning of a surface circulation with 90L. It needs to deepen pretty quickly, if the models are to verify.

-Snow
It does have a surface circulation.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Upper Level Divergence and Lower Level Convergence have gotten better, which could explain all of the clouds, and recent pop up-thunderstorms, associated with both systems.





Voritcy is also good with both systems; especially ex-Gaston.



I don't see the beginning of a surface circulation with 90L. It needs to deepen pretty quickly, if the models are to verify.

-Snow
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Snowlover123:
My goodness... a whole lot of clouds, but no surface circulation whatsoever.

Floater- Visible Loop


ahh there is a 1005 mb low
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
This is a little "iffy".

If the eastern blob can get wrapped, I think it's going to start ramping up any hour now.

If it doesn't wrap it's pretty much going to lose the past 6 hours worth of development and be starting all over again.

Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting Snowlover123:
My goodness... a whole lot of clouds, but no surface circulation whatsoever.

Floater- Visible Loop
There's a surface circulation...look at how the low level clouds rotate cyclonically. The pressure of the low is 1005mb by the way.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


Once the system crosses 55W it will be entering 30C waters which could aid in additional development.


It is remarkable how slow it has been moving.
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Gaston is officially above 17.0N. However, as with many storms this season, once again the center may reform in another area. In fact, there is also a lot of energy on the east side now. Almost as if the Fujiwhara effect on a small scale is present.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thank you for the minor correction. Thou fixed it. :)

lol
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My goodness... a whole lot of clouds, but no surface circulation whatsoever.

Floater- Visible Loop
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
there is no vorticity in the eastern gom i dont see nada coming out of there its the sw gom
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Our new website...and other news:
Link
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Miami, it would read "the remnants of Gaston have gotten better organized", not "has". Good job other than that minor error.
Thank you for the minor correction. Thou fixed it. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


Once the system crosses 55W it will be entering 30C waters which could aid in additional development.


Gaston will explode once it gets there. Currently, it's in 29 Degree C waters, which is more than favorable for development. 90L will be moving into 31 Degree C waters... O.o

Tropical North Atlantic Visible Satellite Loop
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
A little sparkalation going on in the eastern gom,a wee low forming sliding along a stat front towards fl...,
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models are in good agreement that ex-Gaston will be over the northern Lesser Antilles in about 48 hours. So, tropical storm watches are likely to be warranted later this afternoon. My best guess as to what they will write in the TWO is (someone write this down to see if I'm close, lol): "Satellite images indicate that the remnants of Gaston has gotten better organized over the past few hours. Based on this, advisories will likely be initiated later today along with tropical storm watched or warnings along portions of the northern Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours".

*This is not the official TWO. Just a guess of what it'll read like, lol.


Miami, it would read "the remnants of Gaston have gotten better organized", not "has". Good job other than that minor error.
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Holy smokes. It looks like a lot of chaotic cloud mass also.

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Quoting Snowlover123:


Gaston has recently acquired deeper convection, which could aid it to bumping its winds up.

-Snow


Once the system crosses 55W it will be entering 30C waters which could aid in additional development.
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CMC= Come meet Crud. :P
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
GFS= Great for Slaying.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Gaston sure is a fighter. He should continue to pulse up and down for a couple more days. May become a depression today, however I don't think he will regain TD status until at least Tuesday due to the dry air in his path. If he gets into the Caribbean (which I believe he eventually will), he could become a formidable hurricane by Friday (depending on possible interactions with land, particularly Hispaniola).
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Quoting Drakoen:
ASCAT pass shows that Ex-Gaston has a closed circulation, however, the winds are relatively weak: only 20-25knots. Still has some work to do.





Gaston has recently acquired deeper convection, which could aid it to bumping its winds up.

-Snow
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models are in good agreement that ex-Gaston will be over the northern Lesser Antilles in about 48 hours. So, tropical storm watches are likely to be warranted later this afternoon. My best guess as to what they will write in the TWO is (someone write this down to see if I'm close, lol): "Satellite images indicate that the remnants of Gaston has gotten better organized over the past few hours. Based on this, advisories will likely be initiated later today along with tropical storm watched or warnings along portions of the northern Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours".

*This is not the official TWO. Just a guess of what it'll read like, lol.


Looks like the models just answered my question, lol
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You can't be serious! 90L has banding and everything. Who agrees with the NAM? It spells trouble!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Do you think it is really gonna take 7 days to get to Hispaniola? Cause I say 5 based on those fast trades in the caribbean, unless steering currents collapse. Right now I notice an ULL over Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.
No, it'll likely be there in 5 days. Also, if you look on water vapor, that ULL is backing off towards the west. It should begin to move off towards the NW and dissipate.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
244. Skyepony (Mod)
Been pretty busy for blogging so figured I'd post my daily update that usually goes in my Wunderblog blog here as well today. Yeah some of it is old news but there's colorful graphics..

Fiona is gone. Earl remenants got modeled so I left him up. 99L is gone & 90L in the Gulf of Mexico is new. Mentioned this one in the last blog. Trying to pull together as it rolls up the Mexican coast, may even make it to extreme South Texas. GFS pulls it together, CMC not too excided about it. I'll go 70% we see a depression out of it, 30% tropical storm. It's really only a matter of how far away from land it can get. It's got rain regardless the orange/red is atleast 130mm (over 5 inches) in the last 12hrs..

Gaston, I think has a decent chance to reform. He's the worst kind.. Holds okay structure as he rolls low across the Atlantic, on the other side when the dust subsides~ it's just add water..

EPAC went quiet. New invest in the Central Pacific. WPAC has settled down a bit, one new invest. Good chance Malou to impact South Korea from the south~ about 40-50kts, lotta rain. Cloudsat just missed it..

Cloudsat did catch the very leading edge of the next wave stepping off Africa. Kinda impressive for a T-wave.
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ASCAT pass shows that Ex-Gaston has a closed circulation, however, the winds are relatively weak: only 20-25knots. Still has some work to do.



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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models are in good agreement that ex-Gaston will be over the northern Lesser Antilles in about 48 hours. So, tropical storm watches are likely to be warranted later this afternoon. My best guess as to what they will write in the TWO is (someone write this down to see if I'm close, lol): "Satellite images indicate that the remnants of Gaston has gotten better organized over the past few hours. Based on this, advisories will likely be initiated later today along with tropical storm watched or warnings along portions of the northern Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours".

*This is not the official TWO. Just a guess of what it'll read like, lol.



Saved it lol ;)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting futuremet:


NAM= Not a Model lol


Hey! Computer Models are garbage in garbage out! ;) Are you saying the NAM model is a good "model" because it's not a model? :P
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Do you think it is really gonna take 7 days to get to Hispaniola? Cause I say 5 based on those fast trades in the caribbean, unless steering currents collapse. Right now I notice an ULL over Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.

It will feel the weakness long before day 7.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Most likely that the circulation will make a final landfall over northern Mexico, however, heavy rainfall from the system will be felt across southern Texas.
Remember Hurricane Bret 1st Tampico then Brownsville,Ended just south of Corpus
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Models are in good agreement that ex-Gaston will be over the northern Lesser Antilles in about 48 hours. So, tropical storm watches are likely to be warranted later this afternoon. My best guess as to what they will write in the TWO is (someone write this down to see if I'm close, lol): "Satellite images indicate that the remnants of Gaston have gotten better organized over the past few hours. Based on this, advisories will likely be initiated later today along with tropical storm watched or warnings along portions of the northern Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours".

*This is not the official TWO. Just a guess of what it'll read like, lol.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
LMAO!

Quoting futuremet:


NAM= Not a Model lol
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Gaston is the best, and the rest is all... "OW!" No one's slick as Gaston...

Floater- Visible Loop

Gaston has some nice convection developing; very deep to the East of the center.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The HPC has ex-Gaston just north of HispaƱiola in 7 days:


Do you think it is really gonna take 7 days to get to Hispaniola? Cause I say 5 based on those fast trades in the caribbean, unless steering currents collapse. Right now I notice an ULL over Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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