Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Snowlover123:


Lefou:
Gosh it disturbs me to see you, Gaston
Looking so down in the dumps
Ev'ry guy here'd love to be you, Gaston
Even when taking your lumps
There's no man in town as admired as you
You're ev'ryone's favorite guy
Ev'ryone's awed and inspired by you
And it's not very hard to see why
No one's slick as Gaston
No one's quick as Gaston
No one's neck's as incredibly thick as Gaston's
For there's no man in town half as manly
Perfect, a pure paragon!
You can ask any Tom, Dick or Stanley
And they'll tell you whose team they prefer to be on
Lefou and Chorus:
No one's been like Gaston
A king pin like Gaston
LeFou:
No one's got a swell cleft in his chin like Gaston
Gaston:
As a specimen, yes, I'm intimidating!
Lefou and Chorus:
My what a guy, that Gaston!
Give five "hurrahs!"
Give twelve "hip-hips!"
LeFou:
Gaston is the best
And the rest is all drips
Chorus:
No one fights like Gaston
Douses lights like Gaston
LeFou:
In a wrestling match nobody bites like Gaston!
Bimbettes:
For there's no one as burly and brawny
Gaston:
As you see I've got biceps to spare
LeFou:
Not a bit of him's scraggly or scrawny
Gaston:
That's right!
And ev'ry last inch of me's covered with hair
Chorus:
No one hits like Gaston
Matches wits like Gaston
LeFou:
In a spitting match nobody spits like Gaston
Gaston:
I'm espcially good at expectorating!
Ptoooie!
Chorus:
Ten points for Gaston!
Gaston:
When I was a lad I ate four dozen eggs
Ev'ry morning to help me get large
And now that I'm grown I eat five dozen eggs
So I'm roughly the size of a barge!
Chorus:
Oh, ahhh, wow!
My what a guy, that Gaston!
No one shoots like Gaston
Makes those beauts like Gaston
LeFou:
Then goes tromping around wearing boots like Gaston
Gaston:
I use antlers in all of my decorating!
Chorus:
My what a guy,
Gaston!



:)
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Quoting KEHCharleston:

Absence of trolls and posts that are generated quoting them.
A low-swear environment? Good afternoon, all.
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Quoting tropicaltank:
Could the system progress from EX-Gaston to TS Gaston by 5pm?


Quite possible as deep convection as developed near the low level circulation.The uppper environment ahead in my view looks pretty favorable for continued organization.
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From Gulf Of Mexico Offshore Forecast

SYNOPSIS
LOW PRES OVER SW GULF COAST AT 19.5N95.5W 1007 MB
NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEING MOVING TOWARD
THE N-NW TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND MOVE
INLAND NEAR 25N98W MON NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING N FROM
THE LOW TO THE NW GULF WILL ALSO MOVE NW ACROSS W WATERS. STRONG
PRES GRADIENT TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH WILL PRODUCE FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHIFTING NW WITH THESE
FEATURES THROUGH TUE. A STALLED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE FAR
N GULF WILL DISSIPATE EARLY MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
N GULF TUE THROUGH THU.
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Good afternoon, welcome to the "90L, ex-Gaston & African wave train watching party" :O). How are you this afternoon?
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Good Afternoon, but I have to leave to the movies now. Why do I leave every time you come back, or vice-versa? Big coincidence lol.
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Gaston generates a thunderstorm to its NE. Yet another day labouriously still chugging along thru the SAL.
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Afternoon Storm! Looks like a busy next few days up ahead.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24719
So do you think it will jump to TS Gaston or TD Gaston?
Either way, seems it will be classified at 5pm.
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Could the system progress from EX-Gaston to TS Gaston by 5pm?
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Quoting ElConando:
Is the NHC saying that TS warnings would be posted for the Leewards as soon as it redevelops?


Yes they are.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Man, what is it with the dry air??

Well, the latest cold front from Central Canada dropped dewpoints into the lower 40's yesterday here at the DFW, TX AP.

Dewpoints today are back to normal, in the upper 60's, however, some drier air made it all the way down to the Northern GOM. That needs to mix out and the surface boundary is about dissapated over the NW GOM.

The COC of 90L is also indicated to be over land at the moment. It will move offshore later today. 90L will slowly intensify and may become our "H" TC.

The SAL is having a party with ex-Gaston. After 24 hrs ex-Gaston will be in a moister environment and should ramp up quickly.
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So, TWO red circles on the TWO pm TWO. lol
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Quoting ElConando:
Is the NHC saying that TS warnings would be posted for the Leewards as soon as it redevelops?


More or less.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Is the NHC saying that TS warnings would be posted for the Leewards as soon as it redevelops?
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I would expect advisories and warnings for Gaston to be issued at 5PM this evening based upon the wording from the NHC and the latest trends in organization and convection.
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wow someone was right

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT

AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED
. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.



I am right that the SW GOMEX system did not become better organized. It should be 90%, JMO, and here is what Miami said earlier. ;)

"Satellite images indicate that the remnants of Gaston has gotten better organized over the past few hours. Based on this, advisories will likely be initiated later today along with tropical storm watched or warnings along portions of the northern Lesser Antilles. There is a high chance...90 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours".
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy smokes. It looks like a lot of chaotic cloud mass also.

Currently a " High entropy systen."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JB thinks there is a TD forming in the Southwest Gulf.
Member Since: May 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 89
Quoting Bordonaro:

The system is slowly organizing. The surrounding landmass appears to be disrupting the process, and the surface boundary to her north may be injecting some drier air into the circulation.


Man, what is it with the dry air??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the blog's kinda dead.

Absence of trolls and posts that are generated quoting them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
301. IKE
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ok, I am getting less ignorant, that was what I though.

Thank you Ike


You're welcome....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051735
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
80% for Gaston.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24719
Quoting Vero1:


The CMC makes a pretty face at the end of the run.



I think that it's blasphemous for the CMC not to develop Gaston.
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Ok, I am getting less ignorant, that was what I though.

Thank you Ike
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy smokes. It looks like a lot of chaotic cloud mass also.


The system is slowly organizing. The surrounding landmass appears to be disrupting the process, and the surface boundary to her north may be injecting some drier air into the circulation.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking a whole lot better. It's trying to mix out the dry air and seclude itself. Expect the percentage to be higher then 70% in the next TWO.



Looks better than it did as a Tropical Storm, JMO.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Gaston is officially above 17.0N. However, as with many storms this season, once again the center may reform in another area. In fact, there is also a lot of energy on the east side now. Almost as if the Fujiwhara effect on a small scale is present.
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Gaston is officially above 17.0N. However, as with many storms this season, once again the center may reform in another area. In fact, there is also a lot of energy on the east side now. Almost as if the Fujiwhara effect on a small scale is present.
Where do you see that it is officially above 17.0 N ? Last coordinates I saw was 16.8N and 50.0W which was the 12Z coordinates.
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Looking a whole lot better. It's trying to mix out the dry air and seclude itself. Expect the percentage to be higher then 70% in the next TWO.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
292. IKE
Quoting Eugeniopr:


Ike, for the weather ignorant like me, what this means.


Neither model does much with ex-Gaston. NOGAPS shows an eastern ATL system at the end of the run...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There are two borderline disturbances/TD's out there and the blog is quiet. I'd never thought I'd see it.
Yup.

I don't understand why the global models have stopped developing ex-Gaston. Environmental conditions are set to be favorable in the Caribbean so I don't see any reason why it shouldn't organized and deepen.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lot'so bad mojo in front of Gaston.






Good on Gaston. I think the NAM has the Texas scenario on 90L because of the Kjoules at 3rd possible circulation center. So far I've found three centers including the official one. However, we'll know more later.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...


Ike, for the weather ignorant like me, what this means.
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Earl was wind-event for us yesterday.
Power outages would have lasted weeks if Earl would have been a STRONG Cat1 storm.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmX7jkp5Zrk
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Anyone know where I can get IKE for Malou?
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285. Vero1
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...


12Z NOGAPS...


The CMC makes a pretty face at the end of the run.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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