Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting StormW:


Think about the implications of something developing mid Gulf or Yucatan area.


um....guessing here. Going to TX?
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384. IKE
48 hour...

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Hey StormW!

Have any idea if Gaston will go north or south or over the Islands?
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381. xcool
Hurricanes101:HA
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are blind as a bat then

take a look at the forecast model tracks
LMAO!
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378. xcool
yoyo rob whats Latest on you friend 90L ?
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377. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 600 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1005 MB LOW 35 NM NE OFF THE COAST OF
THE CITY OF VERACRUZ NEAR 19.6N 95.4W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NNE ALONG 23N95W TO 26N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. OFFICIAL DATA FROM SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CITY OF VERACRUZ HAVE REGISTERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HRS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

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Quoting futuremet:


NAM= Not a Model lol
actually can be quite good just not necessarily for tropical systems
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From what im reading on the maps gaston will be recurving by day 3 due to a weakness in the ridge.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Do you think it is really gonna take 7 days to get to Hispaniola? Cause I say 5 based on those fast trades in the caribbean, unless steering currents collapse. Right now I notice an ULL over Puerto Rico & Hispaniola.
moving west faster than Gaston
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Quoting StormW:


Well, try and remember where those systems "really" developed. Mother Nature is trying to tell us something, for those who care to pay attention.


hmmm ok. What is mother nature trying to tell us??
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Good Afternoon, but I have to leave to the movies now. Why do I leave every time you come back, or vice-versa? Big coincidence lol.


Like Clark Kent and Superman.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF @ 24 hours....



TD in the gulf. Gaston is an open wave in the image; which I find to be false.
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Any chance of Gaston taking a Charlie type of track if and when it develops?
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I think that Gaston will redevelop and go just north of PR and following the ULL move wnw into Florida...I dont know when the next trough is though
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


Storm, remember some of us are learning, what that map means?

Thank you


The map shows Upper Level Wind Shear. Gaston appears to be in an area of low wind shear.
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Good afternoon, Storm.

Ike, I thought I recalled MH09 playing a prank with some of our fellow bloggers a couple of months ago. Am I mistaken, MH09?
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362. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 24 hours....

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Quoting StormW:
Last update on shear...how's that grab you where Gaston might be?

As you said before, "Ouch"
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Hi Storm!
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


72g of protein! Wo, he'll be too strong!


Too strong lol :P
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Quoting StormW:
Last update on shear...how's that grab you where Gaston might be?



Storm, remember some of us are learning, what that map means?

Thank you
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357. IKE
Updated IR on Gaston....

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Trouble #3 coming off of Africa...

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Quoting StormW:


Yes. Mexico.


ok, I was saying yesterday how the the storms (Alex) and the wannabe's seem to like MX and LA this year....so far anyways.
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Quoting StormW:
Last update on shear...how's that grab you where Gaston might be?



Might as well give it a few margarita's as well.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
Quoting Snowlover123:
Looks like Gaston is absorbing the feeder band off to its east, "feeding" Gaston with 12 Dozen Eggs. ;)



72g of protein! Wo, he'll be too strong!
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Quoting StormW:
Last update on shear...how's that grab you where Gaston might be?



Gaston looks to be in a favorable environment, right now.
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Quoting StormW:


Yes it does!

Good to see ya!


Hi Storm - look for 90L to develop? Go into MX or S. TX?
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Looks like Gaston is absorbing the feeder band off to its east, "feeding" Gaston with 12 Dozen Eggs. ;)

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Quoting Eugeniopr:
Latest models are sending EX G to the Caribbean. South of PR and RD. Hope do not hit Haiti or does not develop.


Remember the Dominican Republic is there as well.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
Up to 100 feared buried in Guatemala landslide

GUATEMALA CITY — As many as 100 people may have been buried in a landslide in Guatemala on a major highway, a spokesman for the fire department said Sunday.

Approximately 100 people were attempting to dig a bus out of a first mudslide when a second engulfed the scene, said fire department spokesman Sergio Vasquez.

At least 36 people have been confirmed killed by mudslides and flooding throughout the country since Saturday, according to emergency workers.
"We are told that there are 150 missing," he said. "Under the earth there is a bus that carried we don't know how many people, and there are those who tried to help the victims of the first slide."

Heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11-E have pelted Guatemala for days, unleashing deadly mudslides in several areas, cutting highways and forcing officials to evacuate thousands of people.
Full article: Link
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Quoting TexasHurricane:



:)


;)

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Latest models are sending EX G to the Caribbean. South of PR and RD. Hope do not hit Haiti or does not develop.
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Quoting QMiami:


Very nice satellite imagery showing how Gaston is closing off the dry air.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I agree
Same here.
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Good afternoon from St. Maarten, I have made some changes to setup of my live camera everyone watched Earl on. It was offline for a while but is now back on and can be seen here.

http://bit.ly/brGbDO

If Gaston develops you can watch his passage live on this camera as long as we do not drop power again.

Cheers, and thank you to everyone who viewed Earl, we had over 10,000 individual viewers! At many times the camera could not keep up with the viewers!
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Quoting hurricane23:


Quite possible as deep convection as developed near the low level circulation.The uppper environment ahead in my view look pretty favorable for continued organization.


I agree
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Some lower level outflow boundaries are evident on satellite imagery. Cloud tops may begin to warm/collapse.

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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


Good afternoon, Senior Chief! It's interesting to note that the models don't develop Gaston, yet it looks much better than yesterday, and it looks like the cold convection to the east of the system appears to be wrapping around it.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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