Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Snowlover123:


Sadly, Hermine is probably stronger than 50 mph, and this is a perfect disaster for not warning people before-hand.

So Hermine is at 990.5MB, her minds are about 65MPH?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


If it's in all caps it has to be right? Right? LMAO!
So some think!! Those are the ones who will be having BBQ crow when all is said and done... Y'all have a great Labor day and everyone, everywhere, be safe.
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2733. Hhunter
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2732. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
2717:

Gaston is gonna break the John Hope rule...
Is that the rule where the disturbance has to be a T.D. in order to have a 70% of being a named storm in the Caribbean?
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Quoting ozzyman236:
weatherguyo3 said gaston is R.I.P he should know he is dead on with hermine...props to weatherguy03..



Gaston is no where close to R.I.P. He will most likely be reformed by tomorrow.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.


I think later today, the watches will be upgraded to warnings.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Orcasystems:


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.


What are the Sons of the American Revolution doing with OZ in a hurricane?
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Oh no!!! All caps.....ooooooooo!!!! Whatever...



Lol. Good morning Katrina.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Won't be for long. A moister mid-level environment awaits in the far eastern Caribbean.


True. Global Models also show shear dying down, which would also be conductive for development.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting JupiterFL:


Orca,
While I respect your opinion, I think you are slightly overboard. People discuss JFV and he is banned. People discuss Stormtop and he has been banned 100 times. At least this guy brings out discussion of weather and not shower curtains.


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting btwntx08:

yes


Good luck with hurricane-force gusts IMO
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hermine is a classic Tehuantepec cross-over storm that I had been predicting before the season and that the GFS model had depicted for a while. Likely to become the third tropical cyclone to make landfall near the US/Mexico border this season. Luckily this system is not expected to become a hurricane.


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.
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Currently, Gaston is one thunderstorm away from being a naked swirl.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Gaston is fighting some dry air...

Won't be for long. A moister mid-level environment awaits in the far eastern Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2714. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
Maybe he needs premium unleaded.....

Or nitrous...very weak.
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2713. Thaale
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ka-TEE-uh pronounced that way--three syllables, with stress on the penultimate one--is one I've heard fairly often in South America. True, it seems to be more common in Brazil than elsewhere on the continent, but still...

You're right about the ambiguous nature of the NHC's own PG for Igor. I don't think the leading 'e' is a schwa, however, as the rest of the storm names use 'uh' to denote that sound (as in Katia above). I'd guess it's just a minor typo, and the the first syllable is indeed long: ee-GORE. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

Thanks, I had never met or heard of a ka-TEE-ah. I still think they could do a better job of finding names with less ambiguity, though admittedly their task is complicated by the need to constantly come up with new ones due to retirement (we know who Katia replaces in the six-year cycle).


Quoting jurakantaino:
Igor is a common name in Puerto Rico, we have many Igors here and is pronounce as it is written of course with the Spanish Phomemic of the vowel

Thanks, also. Comforting to know there's some method to their madness.
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Quoting itrackstorms:
000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT


Sadly, Hermine is probably stronger than 50 mph, and this is a perfect disaster for not warning people before-hand.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.


Goodness me, has the world of 1984 suddenly come true here?

If the Dr and Oz have problems, let them deal with it. Likewise let the rest of the group decide for themselves.

Censorship of the group has no place here.

If they want to make comments or point to websites, let them.

BTW the precipitable water animation shows Gaston as still having some life in him. He has as much spin a Colin for example.

Invest 90 ???


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2709. hydrus
Quoting btwntx08:
looks like im gonna pounded again
I,ll say.., That is one nasty lookin storm. If you are able, and have all your prep done, Keep us filled in with the latest obs.:)
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000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT
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Quoting btwntx08:
looks like im gonna pounded again


Good luck! ;) Send us the videos and pictures! Wait... are you going to get hit by Hermine?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2704. IKE
Maybe he needs premium unleaded.....

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Gaston is fighting some dry air...

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.


Orca,
While I respect your opinion, I think you are slightly overboard. People discuss JFV and he is banned. People discuss Stormtop and he has been banned 100 times. At least this guy brings out discussion of weather and not shower curtains.
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Recon turning around because of radar problems. Is there NO backup plan or is there just not a need to fly into Hermine?
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2700. Dunkman
I don't understand this "model support" for Gaston. GFS, ECMWF, and HRWF don't develop it at all. The UKMET and GFDL may possibly have it as a TD in 5 days. I'll take those against whatever models develop him.
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Hermine has been sitting in the BOC for days getting her act together.

Gaston on the other has been moving quite briskly while dealing with dry air and wind shear.

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Whats with you guys... you know Dr Masters has permanently banned Oz, yet you insist on babbling about him on here and posted links to his website?

Respect is something some of you appear to have problems with.
......i posted no link,and earased my post after i saw doug already had it covered,i respect the doc 100%,just letting people know that tthey can view the tc live via a live stream,doc lost a realtime asset when he banned oz imo
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2696. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yep. Once he gets on the other side of the lesser antilles, he might be a bigger deal.
If he organizes fast, he may go a little further north of what some of the models are showing. If in fact it remains weak and heads into the Caribbean Sea on a rough westward course, he could strengthen rapidly.
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Good Early Afternoon/Late Morning...

Hermine looks very impressive.

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Please don't take this the wrong way, but I have to ask the question as I have vacation coming up. Does it appear soon to be Gaston is a threat to Florida in the long-term at all? I can't seem to tell right now, but looks like it will go straight West through to the Yucatan. I am correct in this assumption?
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Hermine is sure putting on a show!
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Quoting Thaale:

IMO the official pronunciation guide just added to the confusion. It says e-GOR, which I would have assumed means long E. But then a little below it is has Lisa as LEE-sa, using double E to denote long E and suggesting e-GOR is pronounced eh-GOR, though as it's an unstressed sylalble I guess the point is that it's a schwa.

In any case, since when is Igor by any pronunciation a common name in any of the cultures / languages of the Atlantic basic, which I thought was the rule they went by? It's not common in American or Canadian English. Is it popular in any of the French speaking locales in the region? I don't think so. The Spanish speaking ones? I've lived in Miami for decades I've and never met or heard of any Igor who wasn't Russian or Ukrainian.

Next year they're pulling out Katia, which I would also have thought was more common in Eastern Europe than in Atlantic hurricane country, and is usually pronounced KAH-tcha. But they have come up with ka-TEE-ah. Who the heck is named ka-TEE-ah, anywhere? Where do they come up with this stuff?
Igor is a common name in Puerto Rico, we have many Igors here and is pronounce as it is written of course with the Spanish Phoneme of the vowel...
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Quoting Thaale:

IMO the official pronunciation guide just added to the confusion. It says e-GOR, which I would have assumed means long E. But then a little below it is has Lisa as LEE-sa, using double E to denote long E and suggesting e-GOR is pronounced eh-GOR, though as it's an unstressed sylalble I guess the point is that it's a schwa.

In any case, since when is Igor by any pronunciation a common name in any of the cultures / languages of the Atlantic basic, which I thought was the rule they went by? It's not common in American or Canadian English. Is it popular in any of the French speaking locales in the region? I don't think so. The Spanish speaking ones? I've lived in Miami for decades I've and never met or heard of any Igor who wasn't Russian or Ukrainian.

Next year they're pulling out Katia, which I would also have thought was more common in Eastern Europe than in Atlantic hurricane country, and is usually pronounced KAH-tcha. But they have come up with ka-TEE-ah. Who the heck is named ka-TEE-ah, anywhere? Where do they come up with this stuff?


Ka-TEE-uh pronounced that way--three syllables, with stress on the penultimate one--is one I've heard fairly often in South America. True, it seems to be more common in Brazil than elsewhere on the continent, but still...

You're right about the ambiguous nature of the NHC's own PG for Igor. I don't think the leading 'e' is a schwa, however, as the rest of the storm names use 'uh' to denote that sound (as in Katia above). I'd guess it's just a minor typo, and the the first syllable is indeed long: ee-GORE. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it...

P.S. -- I worked at an all-Cuban office in Miami for two years. Of the 55-60 people there, ten were male, and two of them were named Igor...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Conversion to 10-min from 1-min: .93
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Quoting Chicklit:
1 knots = 1.15077945 miles per hour.

The following approximate distance calculations are relatively simple, but can produce distance errors of 10 percent of more. These approximate calculations are performed using latitude and longitude values in degrees. The first approximation requires only simple math functions:

Approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 53.0 * (lon2 - lon1)

You can improve the accuracy of this approximate distance calculation by adding the cosine math function:

Improved approximate distance in miles:

sqrt(x * x + y * y)

help!
where x = 69.1 * (lat2 - lat1)
and y = 69.1 * (lon2 - lon1) * cos(lat1/57.3)




I WAS TOLD THERE WOULD BE NO MATH!!! ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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