Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 535 - 485

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Quoting weathermancer:


We may have to wait 3 days.


Its DMIN over there, no shock the convection died down a bit

3 days? not so sure about that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Earls hurricane winds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmX7jkp5Zrk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that little impressive burst of organization didnt last long.



We may have to wait 3 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:


Since we're on the subject, I'll say we see not one but two. Reasoning: 1) Record-high TCHP; 2) Danielle and Earl both got pretty close, even in some "colder" northern waters; 3) Had Alex not run out of ocean, there was every indication he was headed that way, even given the early time of the season; and 4) just because. Nothing scientific about that last one; it's just a hunch... :-)


Mine is based off a historical hunch.

Category 5s are rare. They need more than just hot water, it's a combination of the right ingredients at the same time. If they needed just hot water, they'd occur on nearly an annual basis. The last time any sort of Cat 5 bunching that we've observed from 2003-2007 was between 1955-61. There wasn't any until 1967 despite the waters still being in AMO+ until around '65.

Also, the TCHP and hot waters are in the Caribbean yes, but the QBO may offset some of that 'positive' to Cat 5 formation. It has some sort of impact on storms below 15N. It won't impact on intensity if any long tracker goes through, but may help curb any storm formation in and around those really hot waters.

Again, despite these really hot waters and high TCHP, just because a hurricane 'can' doesn't mean that it 'will'. I do not argue the point that a Category 5 is not impossible. We still have 2 months of possibilities.

That said, I also do believe we have 3-4 major hurricanes left. I don't believe that Earl will be the strongest storm of the year, though it'll be close. A storm like a Paloma late on in the season is quite plausible.

Some of it is just from a gut feeling too, no necessary scientific basis.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting RecordSeason:
Just wait until DMAX.

For what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:

since if he does develop it's going to be to farther west for the trough to pick him up he will probably re-curve right over us.

Possible..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the John Hope Rule "the Herbert Box"? If I misspelled it..don't be too hard on me..:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Good to see you back.
I was thinking that Gaston would surely miss the Islands, and pass just North.
But that was yesterday! Today, I'm not sure about that.
If he gets into the Caribbean, he could get nasty.
But it's all very iffy right now, I think.

since if he does develop it's going to be to farther west for the trough to pick him up he will probably re-curve right over us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:


I always keep plastic gallon jugs of ice in the freezer this time of year. It adds a couple of days to the time your freezer food will survive if you lose power in a storm.

Good Thinking, BatBuoy!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Yes.

A quantitative estimate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


To answer your question...if the center develops further east, I can't rule that out.

12Z NAM


Thanks Storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Uh Oh!!
Just put some plastic gallon bottles filled with water in the freezer.


I always keep plastic gallon jugs of ice in the freezer this time of year. It adds a couple of days to the time your freezer food will survive if you lose power in a storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
Pottery hurry with the ice -- look what is coming into the frame.


I just noticed the relevance of the date of that forecast.
There is a graph somewhere with that date on it....
I have a vague recollection....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
Pottery hurry with the ice -- look what is coming into the frame.

Yeah, that's what the GFS develops...PGI41L. That tropical wave is currently just off of the African coast. It should get mentioned in the 8pm TWO.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that little impressive burst of organization didnt last long.


But remember Earl. 55W went into TS mode CAT4 at 65 west. Gaston has a well defined circulation to draw on OTHC a soon as he loses the dry air. Which should happen as the trough moves east, he moves west and he gets farther from the center of the high to his NE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vero1:
Pottery hurry with the ice -- look what is coming into the frame.


Uh Oh!!
Just put some plastic gallon bottles filled with water in the freezer.
Will start to drop them in the sea in a day or 2.
Otherwise..... we are Doom!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good to meet you, Waveryder.
Photos would be nice.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
516. Vero1
Pottery hurry with the ice -- look what is coming into the frame.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z ECMWF.... waaaay out in time, so we know it will change......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


If he's the first one to belly-up to the TCHP bar in the Carribean then he will be a mean drunk!

He might pass-out before he gets to the bar, though. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well that little impressive burst of organization didnt last long.

still bursting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well that little impressive burst of organization didnt last long.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15920
Doug checking in from the Seacoast region of NH. From my handle you can guess my interest in this blog. I always root for TS and Hurricanes to track 100 or more miles off shore - less likely that way that we will experience loss of life and property (in most cases) and offshore storm tracks make for better surfing conditions! I paddled out yesterday morning about 10:30 just two hours or so into the falling tide at an exposed headland about 5 miles southeast of the mouth of the Piscataqua river. Conditions overnight in our location were not severe, and the morning's weather was beautiful, mild with light westerlies (gradients have since tightened and winds have been blowing 16 -20 mph from NW). Swell was consistently 6-8' at our shoreline from mid morning to early afternoon and then fell progressively over these last 24 hours. I have surfed the same spot many time before in groundswell from Atlantic hurricanes and windswell from Nor'easters. During the very short swell window yesterday there was powerful surf focused on southeast exposed ledge and point breaks and I was fortunate to ride several waves with faces in the 10-12' range. Next time I will get you all some photos. I have been living here since the 60's and have always been drawn to be a witness to (and as a surfer a participant in) the powerful coastal weather systems that are a part of the fabric of life here on the short, varied NH coastline. Mostly cold core storms here, but I keep watch for tropical systems as summer cools to autumn. Love lurking here on WU and enjoy the good information and wacky banter alike.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:
Hey All! Finally back on a Keyboard instead of iphone after Earl.. now waiting to see what Gaston is going to do. Dry air now keeping it in a weak cycle of intensify, run out of convection, intensify run out of convection but when it gets a little closer to me and it will have more energy to work with and less dry air although the dry air has been keeping up with it. So curios. What do you think the WORST Gaston could become by the time it hits 65 West. Me strong TS weak 1.

Good to see you back.
I was thinking that Gaston would surely miss the Islands, and pass just North.
But that was yesterday! Today, I'm not sure about that.
If he gets into the Caribbean, he could get nasty.
But it's all very iffy right now, I think.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
507. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

What does the Ike model think?


I think the John Hope rule will get tested.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting pottery:
Thinking about Gaston ....
He has been around a while,
Declared Dead and almost Buried,
Fought off some dastardly dry air,
Kept spinning with little convection,
Slowed to a Crawl,
Kept his west track pretty much,
Is still there,
With a Chance....

I wonder if he will become THE Storm of 2010.


If he's the first one to belly-up to the TCHP bar in the Carribean then he will be a mean drunk!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sailingallover:
Hey All! Finally back on a Keyboard instead of iphone after Earl.. now waiting to see what Gaston is going to do. Dry air now keeping it in a weak cycle of intensify, run out of convection, intensify run out of convection but when it gets a little closer to me and it will have more energy to work with and less dry air although the dry air has been keeping up with it. So curios. What do you think the WORST Gaston could become by the time it hits 65 West. Me strong TS weak 1.
Hmmm, the absolute worst that it could be by 65W, eh? I think a minimal category 1 would be the absolute worst. A more reasonable intensity estimate, I think, would be 45-60mph by the time it reaches 65W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
I'm still sticking with my thought of no Cat 5s this year.

(I know, what a horrible, horrible 'downcaster' I am...)


Since we're on the subject, I'll say we see not one but two. Reasoning: 1) Record-high TCHP; 2) Danielle and Earl both got pretty close, even in some "colder" northern waters; 3) Had Alex not run out of ocean, there was every indication he was headed that way, even given the early time of the season; and 4) just because. Nothing scientific about that last one; it's just a hunch... :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seems that dry air is trying to push southward.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MH09, not good at all, that would mean very little interaction with the mountainous region of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Jamaica is rather smaller then the two islands I just mentioned in terms of the mountain size they have to offer. This is definitely a Hurricane Emily/Wilma situation if the tracks verify.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
501. IKE
Day 9 ECMWF...



Day 10....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
This iteration of the ECMWF shows Gaston as of tomorrow, but then drops it later in the run.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


But the ECMWF is developing systems in the eastern Atlantic. I just don't think the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and NOGAPS are impressed with it. It's still having issues holding convection.

What does the Ike model think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey All! Finally back on a Keyboard instead of iphone after Earl.. now waiting to see what Gaston is going to do. Dry air now keeping it in a weak cycle of intensify, run out of convection, intensify run out of convection but when it gets a little closer to me and it will have more energy to work with and less dry air although the dry air has been keeping up with it. So curios. What do you think the WORST Gaston could become by the time it hits 65 West. Me strong TS weak 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
497. IKE
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


My guess is that the extrapolated data along with few weather buoy data points are not accurately depicting that we are seeing.


But the ECMWF is developing systems in the eastern Atlantic. I just don't think the ECMWF, GFS, CMC and NOGAPS are impressed with it. It's still having issues holding convection.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We may see something that resembles Wilma this year -- likely in the same location too (where the deepest OHC is located).


Unfortunately I think the same thing as well. We will see the true utmost potential those deep warm waters of the NW Caribbean Sea have to offer.

Since I posted about 30 minutes ago, I am seeing a much more organized invest 90L. Low level circulation centered appears to be around 20n/96w. I think if it moves a little more to the northeast we could have some serious development, but land interaction is the main detriment to any sustained organizational trends.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 245 Comments: 3935
Quoting Vero1:

Yes

I hope you did not think I was being quarrelsome earlier (Re the Ice Cubes)
I should have "LOLLed" my comment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Uh-oh. The 18z dynamical envelope has shifted considerably towards the left. Looks like Jamaica is in "the line of fire".

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Some of the models seem to have changed their mind.
LOL, look at the LGEM. I really don't know which one to agree with...I'll go with the GFDI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Because they don't think it will develop.....





My guess is that the extrapolated data along with few weather buoy data points are not accurately depicting that we are seeing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thinking about Gaston ....
He has been around a while,
Declared Dead and almost Buried,
Fought off some dastardly dry air,
Kept spinning with little convection,
Slowed to a Crawl,
Kept his west track pretty much,
Is still there,
With a Chance....

I wonder if he will become THE Storm of 2010.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
489. JLPR2


Some of the models seem to have changed their mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
488. IKE
ECMWF shows 2 systems in the eastern ATL...first one looks on a Danielle path...Link

Day 8...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting cirrocumulus:


No problem. I just wondered if some could see the low placed on the NOAA floater and the loop with the movement a couple hours ago when it was easy to see. Right now I see it at about 19.9N and 95.7W on visible. It may be at 20.0N and is harder to see on a visible loop than an hour or so ago. Do you have a radar link from Mexico?




Unfortunately it seems that they're just images there is not any loop animations. Yet hope it helps.

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
I have a feeling that before this season is over, we'll see just exactly what the upper limits for hurricane strength are.
We may see something that resembles Wilma this year -- likely in the same location too (where the deepest OHC is located).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 535 - 485

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
54 °F
Partly Cloudy