Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Guess we'll just have to see. There were four Cat 5s in the monstrous 2005 season, of course, and--while I am in no way implying that this year is the same as that--two is well within the realm of possibility. Both 1960 and 1961 had a pair of fives, as well.

Speaking of comparisons to 2005, this year's Earl would have ranked third ACE-wise had it occurred that year, while Danielle would be in fourth place. In '05, only Wilma and Emily had a higher ACE than Earl, and only those two along with Rita had more ACE than this year's Danielle. Yes, that's correct: Earl had a higher ACE than Rita, Katrina, Dennis, Ophelia, and the rest. For that matter, this past June's almost-forgotten Alex had a higher ACE than 17 of 2005's 28 named storms.

Another 2005 comparison: by the end of that year's 'G' storm--Gert--ACE stood at 64.2, compared to this year's 62...and our 'G' storm will likely have more to add. (Yes, I know, 2005's 'G' storm was done the last week of July. But the storms in 2005 clearly were no more powerful than this year's.)

I said all that to say this: there is a huge amount of atmospheric and oceanic energy available right now, and things are clearly trending upward. Not alarmism: this will be a record-setting year in its own right.
Great info as always, Neapolitan. +2.
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The Taino indians of Puerto Rico call the eastern most mountain "El Yunque",(4,799'), which meant the "Good God".For giving protecton by weakening "the evil God":that they called "HURAKAN" the times he decided to crossed the island from east to west. And yes FOlKS, is to the Taino indians that the name hurricane came from.
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If the NHC believes that Gaston could develope further I think they should rename Gaston as a TD and post Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings to some of the Islands at 5pm
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Remember, when they hit 55W they come alive.

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Quoting StormW:

I'm hoping for an early fall..lots of troughs and front coming off the east coast..
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Guess we'll just have to see. There were four Cat 5s in the monstrous 2005 season, of course, and--while I am in no way implying that this year is the same as that--two is well within the realm of possibility. Both 1960 and 1961 had a pair of fives, as well.

Speaking of comparisons to 2005, this year's Earl would have ranked third ACE-wise had it occurred that year, while Danielle would be in fourth place. In '05, only Wilma and Emily had a higher ACE than Earl, and only those two along with Rita had more ACE than this year's Danielle. Yes, that's correct: Earl had a higher ACE than Rita, Katrina, Dennis, Ophelia, and the rest. For that matter, this past June's almost-forgotten Alex had a higher ACE than 17 of 2005's 28 named storms.

Another 2005 comparison: by the end of that year's 'G' storm--Gert--ACE stood at 64.2, compared to this year's 62...and our 'G' storm will likely have more to add. (Yes, I know, 2005's 'G' storm was done the last week of July. But the storms in 2005 clearly were no more powerful than this year's.)

I said all that to say this: there is a huge amount of atmospheric and oceanic energy available right now, and things are clearly trending upward. Not alarmism: this will be a record-setting year in its own right.
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579. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat of 90L..the brown at the bottom is land, in the shape of the mountains it is hitting. (blue is water). Right side is the BOC side. Left is the EPAC. Good view of the mountains & how the precip is reacting at the different heights.



Here's the next frame north, the left side slicing through the NW quadrant of 90L.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well aware.

Not gonna argue over it. Deleted my post...


yea was kind of dumb to argue about, sorry
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do know what even weak systems can do to Haiti and DR right?


Well aware.

Not gonna argue over it. Deleted my post...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
I see Gaston just wont give up. I dont like it when they hang on until the Carribean.
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Quoting StormW:
Hi Storm I was wondering if you think that blob in the GOMEX could become another Alicia like in 1983?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you do know what even weak systems can do to Haiti and DR right?


There is no point in starting a silly argument over this though.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
I dunno, ex-Gaston just looks deformed right now...lol.

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I'm glad you have a well conceived plan in place!

Clearly!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Not necessarily.

It would probably only be a weak-moderate TS at that time.

Sure Hati/DR would get some rain, but Gaston would quickly die thereafter.


you do know what even weak systems can do to Haiti and DR right?
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Quoting JLPR2:


I'll have to disagree with that.


Dry air yes, SAL nope.

A bit of dust still but dry air is the major factor I think
The NRL link below shows dust to a lower concentration.
The dust was BAD Friday and yesterday..visibility over the water was less than 5 miles. Today is much better..the usual 20 or so. I'm in Culebra and can see St Thomas.
Images still don't work for me. Still a fairly dry NE breeze coming in though as the TUTT is moving away..
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol_web/globaer/ops_01/pride_composite/latest.html
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.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
90L looks to be organizing to me. I think we could see a TD out of it before days end.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting StormW:


I like that arrow on the one way south, and at 10W...I think that's the only direction they know how to draw this season. Must be a special "playbook" like in football.
LOL.
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Quoting pottery:

Uh Oh!!
Just put some plastic gallon bottles filled with water in the freezer.
Will start to drop them in the sea in a day or 2.
Otherwise..... we are Doom!


I'm glad you have a well conceived plan in place!
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Interesting. Copy and past 18.4n95.8w, 18.6n95.7w, 18.9n95.7w-19.1n95.7w, 19.1n95.7w-19.2n95.6w, 19.2n95.6w-19.4n95.6w, 19.4n95.6w-19.9n95.9w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.

90L has nearly tripled its moving speed up to ~6.7mph(~10.7km/h); and has changed
its heading to 7.1degrees west of NorthNorthWest, roughly parallel to the nearby coastline.
If 90L continues in the same manner, it'll remain within ~40miles(~64kilometres) of land,
and thus likely to make landfall without ever becoming a TropicalDepression.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


if it hits hispanoila it already becomes a serious threat


but I knew what you meant lol, just think if it hits Hispanoila, the impacts that island usually sees is big enough
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


if it hits hispanoila it already becomes a serious threat


Very true.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
If this re-develops and can avoid Hispaniola...it may become a serious threat under the right conditions.

We'll see what happens...





if it hits hispanoila it already becomes a serious threat
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Quoting Gearsts:
WHERE?
12z surface analysis...the 18z surface analysis should be out within the next 90 minutes.

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554. JLPR2
Quoting jurakantaino:
The swirl is trying to find humidity to survive, but there isn't enough sources, he is in the middle of the Sahara dessert(SAL), ironically his only hope will be the humidity left by the TUTT.Lets see what happens?


I'll have to disagree with that.


Dry air yes, SAL nope.
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Quoting extreme236:


I'm having trouble finding any end to this train anytime soon.
We're likely about to enter into a period of multiple systems again (like we saw with Danielle, Earl, and Fiona). Definitely some very vigorous tropical waves lined up one after another.
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Quoting extreme236:


NHC already has it tagged as a wave and low pressure system.
WHERE?
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Quoting StormW:


I'm having trouble finding any end to this train anytime soon.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting weathermancer:


We may have to wait 3 days.
The swirl is trying to find humidity to survive, but there isn't enough sources, he is in the middle of the Sahara dessert(SAL), ironically his only hope will be the humidity left by the TUTT.Lets see what happens?
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#539. Thx Eric...as in Bobby...infamous....or not...former Saints QB..who dat? lol
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Quoting extreme236:


NHC already has it tagged as a wave and low pressure system.
Yup, it should be able to slowly organize as the night progresses. Upper level conditions aren't excessively favorable though, 20-30 knots of easterly shear are affecting it currently. The GFS forecasts that an anticyclone develop atop it tomorrow though.

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If this re-develops and can avoid Hispaniola...it may become a serious threat under the right conditions.

We'll see what happens...



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Momma Africa still pumping-out more storms i see.
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Quoting sailingallover:

The in the model out of the model is very frustrating.. basically we have a bunch of boats here at the hurricane hole wondering when/if to go back in and tie up. It does not help the high tides are at night here now so getting in will be tricky for some boats and waiting until the last minute makes for a great big mess. People who did not go to a hurricane hole for Earl have their boats on the rocks on STT.. a couple people died.

I did not know there were deaths.
Sorry to learn that.
I can understand your frustration, and those of the crews waiting, waiting, waiting....
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Quoting Txwxchaser:
Is the John Hope Rule "the Herbert Box"? If I misspelled it..don't be too hard on me..:0
No, John Hope rule is that if it enters the Caribbean without developing it will not develop until around 70W.
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Still lined up with no end in sight; I count one wave off the coast, and four others at 2/3 day intervals behind that. Equatorial Africa: the gift that keeps on giving...

Click for larger image:
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Quoting Txwxchaser:
Is the John Hope Rule "the Herbert Box"? If I misspelled it..don't be too hard on me..:0


Nope... The John Hope rule is if a storm hasn't developed by the time it gets into the eastern Caribbean, it most likely it will not develop until it reaches the western Caribbean.

I think the rule should be only used for M/J/J storms.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Mine is based off a historical hunch.

Category 5s are rare. They need more than just hot water, it's a combination of the right ingredients at the same time. If they needed just hot water, they'd occur on nearly an annual basis. The last time any sort of Cat 5 bunching that we've observed from 2003-2007 was between 1955-61. There wasn't any until 1967 despite the waters still being in AMO+ until around '65.

Also, the TCHP and hot waters are in the Caribbean yes, but the QBO may offset some of that 'positive' to Cat 5 formation. It has some sort of impact on storms below 15N. It won't impact on intensity if any long tracker goes through, but may help curb any storm formation in and around those really hot waters.

Again, despite these really hot waters and high TCHP, just because a hurricane 'can' doesn't mean that it 'will'. I do not argue the point that a Category 5 is not impossible. We still have 2 months of possibilities.

That said, I also do believe we have 3-4 major hurricanes left. I don't believe that Earl will be the strongest storm of the year, though it'll be close. A storm like a Paloma late on in the season is quite plausible.

Some of it is just from a gut feeling too, no necessary scientific basis.

Cant argue with any of that.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, that's what the GFS develops...PGI41L. That tropical wave is currently just off of the African coast. It should get mentioned in the 8pm TWO.



NHC already has it tagged as a wave and low pressure system.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Txwxchaser:
Is the John Hope Rule "the Herbert Box"? If I misspelled it..don't be too hard on me..:0


The only John Hope rule I recall is that if systems do not develop in the Eastern Caribbean, they have to wait untill they reach the Western Caribbean - no Central C. development... And about "Herbert" : Its Hebert, pronounced ay-bear. lol
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Quoting InTheCone:
This iteration of the ECMWF shows Gaston as of tomorrow, but then drops it later in the run.


The in the model out of the model is very frustrating.. basically we have a bunch of boats here at the hurricane hole wondering when/if to go back in and tie up. It does not help the high tides are at night here now so getting in will be tricky for some boats and waiting until the last minute makes for a great big mess. People who did not go to a hurricane hole for Earl have their boats on the rocks on STT.. a couple people died.
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Quoting StormW:


Yes.
Thanks. I am sorry if I took a while to reply but I am back and forth cleaning and cooking.
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Quoting weathermancer:


We may have to wait 3 days.


Its DMIN over there, no shock the convection died down a bit

3 days? not so sure about that
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