Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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635. Vero1
Quoting stormpetrol:
anyone else notice wunderground site moving slow?


No
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting robert88:
I think fall is coming early. It has been a long time since i have seen troughs this strong and this early in a hurricane season. This morning felt like a nice fall day in October. Our low here in NC got down to 48!!! Our temperature outside right now is 79. Amazing to see that this early in September.


Looking around and most temperatures in NC are predicted to return to the mid-upper 80s and lows in the low 70s. So I doubt your fall has come early.

Florida's still predicted here to have temps in the lower-mid 90s.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
anyone else notice wunderground site moving slow?
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hi.
I do think Gaston is looking healthier but that's not really saying much.
I just doubt that it becomes a TD at 5 pm (but now that I say it won't, it will!) and it's more likely I think at 11 pm.

I know it's early and everything, but is there any chance of this making it NORTH of the Caribbean? Or what? Just asking to try to see what's happening.

There is a trough to the west and earlier there where even low level SE winds at about 60W at the edge of the Sub Tropical ridge. So it could get picked up and go north of the islands.
But the chances of it doing that are higher if's it's stronger. A strong storm has more of a tendency to go north and more likely to be picked up and taken north by the trough to the west. Most likely that will take it over the islands. But most models keep it weak enough to track south or over the islands more westerly.
It's real toss up right now but I'm think southern.over track although I'd love to see it follow Fionas path which is a possibility
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There is a weakness in the ridge over the GOM, which should allow 90L to be steered towards the NNW or N over the next 24 hours, perhaps giving the disturbance enough time over water to develop into a 40-50mph tropical storm. I don't see it being anything above that, steering and conditions don't favor it.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
Quoting robert88:
I think fall is coming early. It has been a long time since i have seen troughs this strong and this early in a hurricane season. This morning felt like a nice fall day in October. Our low here in NC got down to 48!!! Our temperature outside right now is 79. Amazing to see that this early in September.


Yeah, fall seems earlier than usual here too. My Dad was elk hunting in the Lemhi Mountains last week and got snowed on several times.
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If ex-Gaston becomes a tropical depression again, will it get a renumber?
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626. JLPR2
This says the center is slightly north of the strongest convection.

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I think exGaston will come alive at 60W. It looks like he will have gotten thru with the dry air issues by then. I also think he will stay S of the of the Northern Islands due to his lack of strength. If he keeps on a Westard track after that, I would expect a major hurricane due to favorable atmosphere conditions. IMHO
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6867
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hi.
I do think Gaston is looking healthier but that's not really saying much.
I just doubt that it becomes a TD at 5 pm (but now that I say it won't, it will!) and it's more likely I think at 11 pm.

I know it's early and everything, but is there any chance of this making it NORTH of the Caribbean? Or what? Just asking to try to see what's happening.
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90L is just too close to land. A nice circulation developing, but again it is too close to land. Needs to get further east fast, because half of the circulation looks over land already and dry air could become a problem if this does not move east fast enough. TD at the most or even a low end TS maybe 50mph if it is a tad further east at its peak, just not enough water and time.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3947
has gaston coc relocated under the heaviest blob of convection?
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I think fall is coming early. It has been a long time since i have seen troughs this strong and this early in a hurricane season. This morning felt like a nice fall day in October. Our low here in NC got down to 48!!! Our temperature outside right now is 79. Amazing to see that this early in September.
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We're above average right now with 7-3-2, if 90L develops we'll be at 8-3-2, if the computer models verify again (like they did with Danielle and Earl) by end of this week or early next week we'll be sitting here talking about Hurricane Igor, or 9-4-2. A lot of ifcasting there, as so I've been called, but goes to show how active September is going to be. 2009 at this point had 5-3-1, so we're probably at this rate going to see above 11 if the season suddenly slows down. If we end up with 6 this month like I'm predicting that will put us at 13 named, and add 2 more in October we'll be at 15, and 2 more later in the year 17.

We're right on course.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
Quoting RecordSeason:
603:

Last time I checked nobody here is named Frank Parker and this isn't "Seven Days".
What?
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Near 51.6W 16.9N
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Quoting duajones78413:
Will 90L bring rain to Corpus Christi?
We could use the rain


Heavy Rains Monday through Wednesday.

Link
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Quoting duajones78413:
Will 90L bring rain to Corpus Christi?
We could use the rain

Sure looks like it's going to. Check out weather.gov.
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Quoting jurakantaino:
The Taino indians of Puerto Rico call the eastern most mountain "El Yunque",(4,799'), which meant the "Good God".For giving protecton by weakening "the evil God":that they called "HURAKAN" the times he decided to crossed the island from east to west. And yes FOlKS, is to the Taino indians that the name hurricane came from.


cool!
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ex-Gaston just doesnt know what he wants to do. He continues to play with our nerves.
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Will 90L bring rain to Corpus Christi?
We could use the rain
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Quoting robert88:
So far this has the looks of a normal September and not a hyperactive craze that everyone seems to think is going to happen. I see no reason for this to be just an ordinary month UNLESS the MJO upswing causes insane activity within the next couple of weeks or so.

Even "Normal" Septembers in the Tropics usually end up with problems for someone. Ike was in 2008 when he had 4 systems one above the normal of 3 and we know what he did. Link
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Center looks south of 17N again but I am not sure. Storm or Miami ?
Nah, still looks to be moving due west from the same position it was a couple hours ago...17.0N.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
If the NHC believes that Gaston could develope further I think they should rename Gaston as a TD and post Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings to some of the Islands at 5pm

YES. It is VERY frustrating they are giving us a "watch out" and when it crosses 60W and become a TS they will then issue 36hr warnings when we can already be pretty sure they will be needed.
With the persistent circulation, the TUTT moving west now leaving some moisture hard to believe it will not form a TS for VI and PR.
The VI's are still cleaning up and water island still without power among other spots
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My 2010/2011 Winter Outlook. Paint Shop Pro didn't agree with me (lol), California should be Blue.

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Quoting StormW:


I really don't believe so at the moment. The center of this would have to get further east for that type of development to take place...IMPO.Thanks for the quick response. but you say at the moment
?LOL I'm here from Galveston,Tx. thats why I wonder.What is IMPO?Sorry still learning.
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What happen after Gaston enters the Carib? will it stay west and hit Mexico or turn and hit U.S?
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.
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Quoting BobinTampa:


poverty was probably the biggest factor in that though.


Well, poverty, plus copious amounts of rain. :-\

Seriously, though, Haiti's poverty has led to the loss of almost every bit of forestation, leading to frequent and deadly flooding. Despite all the talk we hear of nature being able to bounce back from any damage we humans could possibility do to it, this awful truism stands: destroying and despoiling the environment for short-term gain is folly of the worst sort, and it's never been a good idea. Never...

<hint hint>
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Hi.
I do think Gaston is looking healthier but that's not really saying much.
I just doubt that it becomes a TD at 5 pm (but now that I say it won't, it will!) and it's more likely I think at 11 pm.

I know it's early and everything, but is there any chance of this making it NORTH of the Caribbean? Or what? Just asking to try to see what's happening.
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Center looks south of 17N again but I am not sure. Storm or Miami ?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he is a chronic downcaster

notice we did not hear from him much during the last 2 weeks? gee I wonder why


Yup.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Which it probably will. We've just had 4 storms in a 11 day period, 2 of them where Category 4 hurricanes.


he is a chronic downcaster

notice we did not hear from him much during the last 2 weeks? gee I wonder why
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Quoting robert88:
So far this has the looks of a normal September and not a hyperactive craze that everyone seems to think is going to happen. I see no reason for this to be just an ordinary month UNLESS the MJO upswing causes insane activity within the next couple of weeks.


Which it probably will. We've just had 4 storms in a 11 day period, 2 of them where Category 4 hurricanes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24198
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
If the NHC believes that Gaston could develope further I think they should rename Gaston as a TD and post Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings to some of the Islands at 5pm
They should do that, but maybe they will wait till 8:00 pm or later because convection still looking ill.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting Skyepony:
Cloudsat of 90L..the brown at the bottom is land, in the shape of the mountains it is hitting. (blue is water). Right side is the BOC side. Left is the EPAC. Good view of the mountains & how the precip is reacting at the different heights.



Here's the next frame north, the left side slicing through the NW quadrant of 90L.

Seriously cool. I love the way you can actually see the hight and shape of the convection.
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


Jeanne killed over 3,000 in Haiti while still only a TS.


poverty was probably the biggest factor in that though.
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So far this has the looks of a normal September and not a hyperactive craze that everyone seems to think is going to happen. I see no reason for this to be just an ordinary month UNLESS the MJO upswing causes insane activity within the next couple of weeks or so.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We're likely about to enter into a period of multiple systems again (like we saw with Danielle, Earl, and Fiona). Definitely some very vigorous tropical waves lined up one after another.


As long as they track the same as the above mentioned..then bring em all on..
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589. Vero1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Remember, when they hit 55W they come alive.



Is that "55 arrive alive".
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea was kind of dumb to argue about, sorry


Dont worry about it.

That kind of stuff always doesn't wind up ending well.
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586. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Remember, when they hit 55W they come alive.



that new convection looks suspicious XD
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Guess we'll just have to see. There were four Cat 5s in the monstrous 2005 season, of course, and--while I am in no way implying that this year is the same as that--two is well within the realm of possibility. Both 1960 and 1961 had a pair of fives, as well.

Speaking of comparisons to 2005, this year's Earl would have ranked third ACE-wise had it occurred that year, while Danielle would be in fourth place. In '05, only Wilma and Emily had a higher ACE than Earl, and only those two along with Rita had more ACE than this year's Danielle. Yes, that's correct: Earl had a higher ACE than Rita, Katrina, Dennis, Ophelia, and the rest. For that matter, this past June's almost-forgotten Alex had a higher ACE than 17 of 2005's 28 named storms.

Another 2005 comparison: by the end of that year's 'G' storm--Gert--ACE stood at 64.2, compared to this year's 62...and our 'G' storm will likely have more to add. (Yes, I know, 2005's 'G' storm was done the last week of July. But the storms in 2005 clearly were no more powerful than this year's.)

I said all that to say this: there is a huge amount of atmospheric and oceanic energy available right now, and things are clearly trending upward. Not alarmism: this will be a record-setting year in its own right.
Great info as always, Neapolitan. +2.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.