Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Lots of thunder at my house. Big time T Storms just South of my location (S. Fort Myers)


Hey! That's where my ex works. How is ol' Ft Myers?
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Quoting ElConando:


Didn't they issue it a few hours ago or did you just notice it?

I guess i'm just noticing lol
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


???

why they have it moving wsw?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
Thanks for posting,usually Jeff Masters site would have something posted and so would our local weather site. When I didn't see nothing mentioned about this, it took me by surprise.
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Quoting Drakoen:
90L has a TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4N 94.9W TO 22.8N 98.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. RMKS: AT 06/1500Z, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 94.9W AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS IN CONJUCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND MOVEMENT INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 061500Z AUG 2010.//


Didn't they issue it a few hours ago or did you just notice it?
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Quoting sailingallover:
Later all have a good one..going to get a burger at El Batey
El batey? Are you in Puerto Rico?
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Quoting crashingwaves:
I'm surprised their isn't any model runs with the tropical wave that was Gaston at one time. They only mention the tropical wave in GOM. I guess this up coming week should be interesting.


???

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I'm surprised their isn't any model runs with the tropical wave that was Gaston at one time. They only mention the tropical wave in GOM. I guess this up coming week should be interesting.
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I'm curious has there ever been a forecast cone for a storm the NHC that had a storm staying at depression status throughout the duration of the cone on its first advisory?
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90L has a TCFA

WTNT21 KNGU 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.4N 94.9W TO 22.8N 98.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. RMKS: AT 06/1500Z, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 94.9W AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 24HRS.
THERE IS CURRENTLY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE.
THIS IN CONJUCTION WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT AND MOVEMENT INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY 061500Z AUG 2010.//
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675. Relix
Ex-Gaston ha a few issues. I am starting to think it will pass around or over PR as a weak TD or a minimal tropical storm.
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90L T=1.5 from both agencies
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Ex-Gaston

TAFB: 2.0
SAB: 1.5
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Lots of thunder at my house. Big time T Storms just South of my location (S. Fort Myers)
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Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2974
Quoting ElConando:


I'm not convinced he'll even form today.
Maybe at 11pm...doubt any earlier.
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MH09, I think 90L's circulation has relocated to near 23n/95w.
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taking a break bbl
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It is more when then will it form right now with Gaston. When it does re-form expect TS warnings up for the Leewards.
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666. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If ex-Gaston becomes a tropical depression again, will it get a renumber?


At this point I think we will see it stay Gaston & not be renumbered. The remnant never mixed with any other T-waves, short waves, troughs or the such.
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665. Vero1
Quoting cyclonekid:
Why not?


He hasn't played nice over the past few days.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh ok. No renumber yet...very likely that we will not get Gaston back at 5pm.


I'm not convinced he'll even form today.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh ok. No renumber yet...very likely that we will not get Gaston back at 5pm.
Why not?
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662. JLPR2


Got to see if that new area of convection has maxed out and will start to weaken or if it will grow and strengthen, I'm starting to feel annoyed with Ex-Gaston. :\
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Quoting StormW:


Looks right at 17.0 or 16.9

What's your forecast for Gaston? I live in PR. so in terms of PR.
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North Carolina State Lows:
Franklin 39°F
Morganton 44°F
Andrews 44°F
Reidsville 47°F
Roxboro 48°F

We should have one more cool day before the lows and highs see an increase by 10degrees in a few days.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


The ATCF files for AL09 will change from LO to TD, that's when you will know.

Oh ok. No renumber yet...very likely that we will not get Gaston back at 5pm.
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658. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting sailingallover:

Seriously cool. I love the way you can actually see the hight and shape of the convection.


Yeah I don't know why there isn't an official Cloudsat fan club.


Gaston has a pretty strong ULL set up to his WNW. Looks like it is beginning to try & send some moisture back to him from South America. Moisture should get a little better ~57-60W. So far he has a respectable distance~ taking advantage of the low shear pockets that usually is to the SSE-E of an ULL without being hindered by it. Okay upper divergence, lacks lower convergence. I'd say due to the lack of lift lended by the MJO. 90L has great convergence & has found favor with the MJO.. 90L may also have the beginnings of an anticyclone which would greatly increase it's odds of pulling together, where Gaston at the moment does not. 90L might be more happening in the next 2 days but still wouldn't discount Gaston.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
rut roh! thunderstorm in the back yard, better turn of the computer.


Lots of thunder at my house. Big time T Storms just South of my location (S. Fort Myers)
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656. Vero1
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SE FLOW IS AT 15-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND E AT
15-20 KT THROUGH THE SRN CARIB W OF 70W AND ALONG N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SUN...THEN PRES GRADIENT
WILL RELAX SOME OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND SPREADING W TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS ON WED NIGHT INTO THU. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE AND TRACK W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N.
ALTHOUGH TC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVENTUAL HURRICANE
STRENGTH...INGESTION OF SAL WITHIN THE CORE CIRCULATION HAS
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD AND LONG LIVED CNVTN PAST FEW DAYS.
CURRENTLY CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAKING A COMEBACK NEAR THE
CENTER OF THIS LOW...AND IT IT PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH THE SYSTEM
COULD BE QUICKLY UPGRADED. HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE TROPICAL LOW W
ACCOMPANIED BY CYCLONIC WINDS OF 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-12 FT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS WIND AND SEAS FORECASTS...OVER
REMAINDER OF AREA VERY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
TROPICAL LOW...SO EXPECT A LOT OF TWEAKING IN EACH FORECAST
PACKAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TILL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
REMNANTS OF GASTON.

Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
90L is just too close to land. A nice circulation developing, but again it is too close to land. Needs to get further east fast, because half of the circulation looks over land already and dry air could become a problem if this does not move east fast enough. TD at the most or even a low end TS maybe 50mph if it is a tad further east at its peak, just not enough water and time.


I agree..most cyclogenisis that becomes a problem for us in the North gulf develops further east in BOC...
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23n/95w looks to be a center relocation, or just an area of enhanced convection. Either way it looks ominous as the llC heads to the west.
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Link

Check the Animate box
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
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brownsville nws
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY 7 AM THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE WEATHER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TOWARD THE BEGINNING PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING A JET STREAK GETS ORGANIZED OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS BRINGING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. THIS JET STREAK MOVES NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER JET STREAK TO FORM OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES EMBEDDED IN
THE SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER FORECAST
TO BE SOUTH OF THE RIVER AT THIS TIME FOR TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF THE PREVIOUS SW TO NE ORIENTED JET STREAK WITH THE ENHANCEMENT
IN SE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DIVERGENCE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
THESE UPPER AIR DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COULD INDUCE AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF THE MINI SUPERCELL TYPE.

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rut roh! thunderstorm in the back yard, better turn of the computer.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Not too surprising on the ACE front, true Cape Verde major hurricanes on the whole will accrue more ACE than any type of homebrew system. (Of course, a Wilma is going to supersede a long tracking tropical storm/Cat 1).

The storms that have got over 60 ACE are:

1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane (Cat 4)
Hurricane Ivan (Cat 5)
Hurricane #4, 1926 (Cat 4)
Hurricane Donna (Cat 5)
Hurricane #9, 1893 (Cat 3)
Hurricane Isabel (Cat 5)
Hurricane Carrie (Cat 4)
Hurricane Dog, 1950 (Cat 5)
Ft. Lauderdale Hurricane, 1947 (Cat 5)

All above 60 ACE, all Cape Verdes. That's more than a lot of seasons. As said before, Hurricane Ivan had more ACE than the entire 2002 season. San Ciriaco had more than the entire 2007 season.

Take Katrina. That was 20. Only a 1/3 of any of those.

2005 had so much ACE largely due to so many systems.

It only narrow beat 1950, despite having 14 more storms and 3 more Cat 5s. (1950 had 15 less storms, but one of 2005 was subtropical hence not counting for ACE purposes. It did have one more major than '05).
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Quoting pottery:

Clearly!
I think everyone ought to join this movement. I don't live near the ocean but I intend to start setting out a few frozen jugs every day. Might offset my contribution to GW.
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647. Vero1

Marine Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AGXX40 KNHC 051858
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

GULF OF MEXICO...
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS FAR N GULF HAS BEGUN TO
MERGE WITH LLVL TROUGH/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE NE
GULF...WITH ACTIVE CNVTN CONTINUING. S-SE FLOW SPREADING FROM
THE NW CARIB AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN HAS HELPED TO MAKE LLVL
TROFFING ACROSS THE SW AND W GULF MORE N TO S ALIGNED. ALVARADO,
MEXICO RADAR HAS SHOWN A SMALL LOW OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR
19.5N95.5W THIS MORNING THAT LOOKS TO HAVE BEGUN TO DRIFT N VIA
VIS IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROF WILL
SHIFT NW NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LOW LIKELY TO BE INLAND BY 36
HOURS. THIS GIVES IT A VERY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF...AS THEY ARE ON CLOSER AGREEMENT TODAY. 20-25
KT SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL E OF THE TROUGH TO ABOUT 90W AND PUMP UP
SEAS TO 9 FT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO
THE SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRES AND MORE E TO SE FLOW
WILL THEN PREVAIL AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE N HALF.




Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting stormpetrol:
anyone else notice wunderground site moving slow?


It depends on which computer I'm using. On my faster laptop, the site works fine. But on my work computer and a different lap top I use, the Wunderground is one of the slowest loading sites on the net. Why? I'm not sure.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I understand that, but will they renumber it again, or will we just get surprised with a new advisory?


The ATCF files for AL09 will change from LO to TD, that's when you will know.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
The Tropical Depression formerly known as Gaston continues to behave like Fred from last year.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
It looks like Gaston is speeding up in forward motion.
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Later all have a good one..going to get a burger at El Batey
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Is there a chance of Gaston going NORTH of the Caribbean?
Thanks.
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Probably a surprise advisory.
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Gaston has remained fairly constant. I haven't noticed much change over the past 24 hours. You can also see an outflow boundry (heading out Eastward from the center)in one of the frames on the visible.
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
No MH09, they will keep him at 09L.
I understand that, but will they renumber it again, or will we just get surprised with a new advisory?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If ex-Gaston becomes a tropical depression again, will it get a renumber?


I don't think so...There are 2 reasons why.

1) If you look at the NHC TWOs and stuff they keep referring to it has ex Gaston.

2) I had the same question as you and read that as long as the center remains trackable, it keeps the same name/number.
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No MH09, they will keep him at 09L.
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635. Vero1
Quoting stormpetrol:
anyone else notice wunderground site moving slow?


No
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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