Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Storm, any thoughts on the ULL to its WNW, and how it might influence the storm?
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Quoting StormW:


Almost looks like Pac Man trying to eat it.


the dry air was out ahead of it before though right?

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Quoting StormW:


Almost looks like Pac Man trying to eat it.
lol
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2001
Looks like it is outracing that dry air, and the dry air to the north is pulling away.
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Quoting blsealevel:


Link

Check the Animate box


Thanks for that! At least my dreams of having some rain here in Houston have a chance lol!
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728. JLPR2
Ex-Gaston has the dry air on its tail.

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A track similar to the 12z UKMET would certainly be a bad one. Keeps it generally away from the mountainous land thus allowing it to intensify with minor disruption from Jamaica. The Yucatan and points northward would be in for a major if that particular track verified.

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726. eddye
go on weather cat people
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725. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


We'd have to write a book on that one!


haha!
I can imagine myself buying that in Borders. XD
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724. N3EG
Quoting hydrus:
I can tell you right now, if Gerbil takes the southernmost path, Gerbil could be a very serious storm. That would be a dangerous path.


I agree...was thinking (and posting) that when the dry air that went around Earl seemed to push it south.
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722. JLPR2
Quoting Orcasystems:


It wouldn't surprise me... nothing it has done so far follows the rules... and then watch it reincarnate itself during Dmin


yeah :S
Although it's moving into warmer waters and is finding more moisture as it heads west so maybe that's why it's waking up now.
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90L looks disorganized.
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718. IKE


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting aquak9:
still not 100% sold on Gaston (Gerbil), but I'm getting closer.
I can tell you right now, if Gerbil takes the southernmost path, Gerbil could be a very serious storm. That would be a dangerous path.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Wouldn't it be funny if it fell apart during D-max? LOL


It wouldn't surprise me... nothing it has done so far follows the rules... and then watch it reincarnate itself during Dmin
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Quoting JLPR2:


Wouldn't it be funny if it fell apart during D-max? LOL


lol
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Hope I'm wrong but looks like Gaston may finally be starting to get its act together.
Link

Is this the beginning?
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
710. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


this is during DMIN too, very promising for the future of Ex-Gaston


Wouldn't it be funny if it fell apart during D-max? LOL
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Quoting JLPR2:
Starting to look more convincing



this is during DMIN too, very promising for the future of Ex-Gaston
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708. JLPR2
Starting to look more convincing

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Quoting blsealevel:


Picketing the Fish's


Nope.. just the word :)
meant in the traditional term "word" being descriptive of the word fish... not that hiphop thingie.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


the models are still running on Ex-Gaston

I posted the tracks below
Thank you, sir.
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Quoting Orcasystems:




Picketing the Fish's
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
still not 100% sold on Gaston (Gerbil), but I'm getting closer.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26655
Quoting StormW:


FISH


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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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700. Skyepony (Mod)
90L not too shabby for suffering the heat of the afternoon.
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Quoting xcool:


LOOK OUT ROBB


I'm expecting this to shift East tonight
How far East?? Central TX might want to keep an eye on this just in case though
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting RecordSeason:
679:

eeeyeah...

The fact that Gaston has remained as a weak, disorganized piece of crap this long may ultimately make him more of a threat in the long term...

that's what i heard.
catloop
'the disorganized crap' is getting larger.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11423
697. xcool
StormW YES BIG FISH FROM BK
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696. Skyepony (Mod)
With Earl's last flight yesterday & it being a holiday weekend, guess I shouldn't be surprised there's no non-tasked data coming out of 90L today. Tomorrow looks busy.. 90L at 1600Z, Gaston 1800Z.
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Quoting 7544:
looks like the mess in the gom moving ne toward fla ?


where do you see this?
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692. xcool


LOOK OUT ROBB
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690. 7544
looks like the mess in the gom moving ne toward fla ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting jurakantaino:
I was hoping the classify ex-Gaston at least as an invest so that at least they show some projected pass or something...


the models are still running on Ex-Gaston

I posted the tracks below
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I was hoping the classify ex-Gaston at least as an invest so that at least they show some projected pass or something...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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