Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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785. Vero1
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
What happened to Gaston?


He is still Deep Sea Fishing
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting RecordSeason:
So anyway, as an LSU fan, I was disappointed with the Tigers last night.

NC was missing 8 starters due to suspensions, so statistically a team loses an average of 1.5 points on the spread per starter that is missing. Therefore, statistically, LSU would be favored by an additional 12 points due to those suspensions.

So what do they do? they end up winning by only 6 points.

Hmmm..."spotted" 12, win by 6...

Not very impressive at all.


Not to mention N.C. dropping two passes in the end zone that could have won the game for them!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
What happened to Gaston?


It got wetter. And less dead.
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780:

He is chugging along doing what he does best: Make us wonder.


However, the next several days should be very...interesting, and frightening for some, I should think.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Quoting floridafisherman:
isnt that area in the gulf the same general area where humberto formed?

Link


No it started further north. I remember being at work in Houston watching it on and off all day long on the radar. Was not much then bam overnight..well you know the rest! I never put two and two together but it hit on Sept 13th, and Ike also hit this area on Sept 13!
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Good Afternoon.
What happened to Gaston?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
779. JLPR2
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Climatologically speaking, can anybody give some insight as to where a storm in ex-Gaston's position would tend to go in early-mid September? Any analog storms?


Follow the red line
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Climatologically speaking, can anybody give some insight as to where a storm in ex-Gaston's position would tend to go in early-mid September? Any analog storms?
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Quoting RecordSeason:
So anyway, as an LSU fan, I was disappointed with the Tigers last night.

NC was missing 8 starters due to suspensions, so statistically a team loses an average of 1.5 points on the spread per starter that is missing. Therefore, statistically, LSU would be favored by an additional 12 points due to those suspensions.

So what do they do? they end up winning by only 6 points.

Hmmm..."spotted" 12, win by 6...

Not very impressive at all.


Worse than that, LSU nearly lost the game on the last play.

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Trying to post a image of the radar but it ain't working.
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Gaston is tiny.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11398
Quoting RecordSeason:
So anyway, as an LSU fan, I was disappointed with the Tigers last night.

NC was missing 8 starters due to suspensions, so statistically a team loses an average of 1.5 points on the spread per starter that is missing. Therefore, statistically, LSU would be favored by an additional 12 points due to those suspensions.

So what do they do? they end up winning by only 6 points.

Hmmm..."spotted" 12, win by 6...

Not very impressive at all.


Geoops Tigers?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So anyway, as an LSU fan, I was disappointed with the Tigers last night.

NC was missing 8 starters due to suspensions, so statistically a team loses an average of 1.5 points on the spread per starter that is missing. Therefore, statistically, LSU would be favored by an additional 12 points due to those suspensions.

So what do they do? they end up winning by only 6 points.

Hmmm..."spotted" 12, win by 6...

Not very impressive at all.
Member Since: June 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2336
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Should be an interesting evening JLPR2, and even better, Mom's cooking!
(I'm bringing the steaks, salad and wine.)
Life is good for the moment, anyway.


Porterhouse thick cut, Italian combo with romaine and baby spinach and Cabernet Souvignon, Yellow Tail or a good import.

Am I close?
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Quoting cloudy0day:


Having trouble here in E Central FL. All the Orlando, Melbourne, Jax or Tampa radars indicate that they are down for maintiance.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=no

Try this link.
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768. Vero1
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Should be an interesting evening JLPR2, and even better, Mom's cooking!
(I'm bringing the steaks, salad and wine.)
Life is good for the moment, anyway.
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Quoting Chicklit:
rofl. you guys are funny.
Radar in Miami is down for maintenance.
I know Patrap had a concussion during that workshop he worked so hard on for the 5th anniversary of Katrina. It's also been a wicked spring/summer with the BP disaster. Maybe WU's go-to guy for the GOM is recharging until there's a real threat in the Gulf.

By the way, this is Naples, Florida:
Statement and it goes blah blah blah...snip snip snip eroo ..

Bettwy


Naples? That explains everything. I used to OWN that town. Kind of miss it.
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765. JLPR2
Ex-Gaston entering D-min, lets see how that goes.

Link
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Quoting blsealevel:


Gotcha
getting smacked with a Macheral has got to be better then spending the night with a cat 4 or 5 any day "imo"

Night? Maybe. I spent the day with a Cat 4 (Charlie) it was fun and educational and I would do it again in a heart beat. Getting smacked in the face with a big fish? Let's see...?? Hmmmm. Well, suffice it to say, it's not even on the list, which I might add is long, but distinguished.
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rofl. you guys are funny.
Radar in Miami is down for maintenance.
I know Patrap had a concussion during that workshop he worked so hard on for the 5th anniversary of Katrina. It's also been a wicked spring/summer with the BP disaster. Maybe WU's go-to guy for the GOM is recharging until there's a real threat in the Gulf.

By the way, this is Naples, Florida:
Statement as of 3:33 PM EDT on September 05, 2010

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an * Urban Flood Advisory for...
south central Hendry County in southern Florida...central Collier County in southwest Florida...* until 530 PM EDT

* at 331 PM EDT an area of heavy showers and thunderstorms was producing rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour across portions of the advised area.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the advised area as showers and thunderstorms remain nearly stationary.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

Lat... Lon 2632 8176 2632 8166 2643 8166 2633 8124 2595 8120 2603 8165

Bettwy
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Gaston is going to be a big storm in its future!
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761. Vero1
Quoting cloudy0day:


Having trouble here in E Central FL. All the Orlando, Melbourne, Jax or Tampa radars indicate that they are down for maintiance.


The radars are up!!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting KanKunKid:


Yeah, it's not like you're getting beat with it.




Gotcha
getting smacked with a Macheral has got to be better then spending the night with a cat 4 or 5 any day "imo"
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting Chicklit:
Don't feel sorry for Gaston.
He's a bad guy. Needs to be snuffed out.


We don't know if was going to be bad or not. (Like Boris Badernot) Like a baby T- Rex. They are so cute as babies.
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758. JLPR2
Hmm... As of now Gaston is a small system, maybe that's why the models are loosing it.

Does Felix ring a bell?
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isnt that area in the gulf the same general area where humberto formed?

Link
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756. Vero1
Quoting Chicklit:
Don't feel sorry for Gaston.
He's a bad guy. Needs to be snuffed out.


He has been keeping this blog alive.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting Hurricanman:


No, I can see all three of those radar sites, and I can see your storms.


Having trouble here in E Central FL. All the Orlando, Melbourne, Jax or Tampa radars indicate that they are down for maintiance.
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Quoting Chicklit:


Where's Patrap been? He always keeps us informed about what's going on in the GOM.


I think he actually has a life.
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Don't feel sorry for Gaston.
He's a bad guy. Needs to be snuffed out.
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Quoting floridafisherman:
anyone having problems with nexrad radar sites in south florida?

ive tried miami, its down.
key west, down for maintaince.
tampa is the same thing.

i live just east of ft myers and see alot of black sky and hear alot of thunder but cant see whats out there cause of a lack of coverage from 3 radars being simultaniously down for maintaince. wtf lol


No, I can see all three of those radar sites, and I can see your storms.
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Where's Patrap been? He always keeps us informed about what's going on in the GOM.
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Killer graphic, saved.
--------------
Ex-Gaston has the dry air on its tail
------------
Like Pac-man! Poor thing.
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748. Vero1
Quoting StormW:


It's gonna keep moving W-WNW. That will help keep the area Gaston is in, ventilated.


Just so it does not start hyper-ventilating.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
anyone having problems with nexrad radar sites in south florida?

ive tried miami, its down.
key west, down for maintaince.
tampa is the same thing.

i live just east of ft myers and see alot of black sky and hear alot of thunder but cant see whats out there cause of a lack of coverage from 3 radars being simultaniously down for maintaince. wtf lol
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Quoting JLPR2:


Aww, but that's not how the game works. :\
LOL!


LMAO

touche
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745. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


the Pacman may never get to it now


Aww, but that's not how the game works. :\
LOL!
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18z surface analysis shows that the tropical wave located near the African coast continues to be accompanied by an area of low pressure. The pressure of the low actually decreased by 2mb...now at 1009mb...it was at 1011mb previously.

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Quoting StormW:


Almost looks like Pac Man trying to eat it.


Good afternoon Chief! Hows the weather there?
It's warm and very breezy in the Western Caribbean, which means it is cool in the shade and the bugs can't find you! For 2 days the winds have been 15 to 20 gusting to 30. Nice.

Occasional squalls but nothing major. If it stays like this till December, I would not complain (about the weather here). I hope you're enjoying your "down time" with a few adult beverages and the contentment of yet another years worth of accumulated knowledge under your belt (or where ever you keep it).
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Quoting hydrus:
I can tell you right now, if Gerbil takes the southernmost path, Gerbil could be a very serious storm. That would be a dangerous path.


I know, hydrus, I know. Way too many memories of invests etc that looked like CRAP and then came back to kick the CRAP out of us humans. I am VERY wary of Gerbil. I do not want to get upset, this early.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah it does.
Now the question is will Gaston turn back into a colored version of itself before the Pacman gets it or will the Pacman eat the white ghost? XD


the Pacman may never get to it now
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Quoting btwntx08:
b4 i left just saw the 18z nam it goes crazy with 90L intensify it as it appoaches the border 992mb again lol



But it shifted south from it's previous landfall position.
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737. JLPR2
Quoting StormW:


Almost looks like Pac Man trying to eat it.


Yeah it does.
Now the question is will Gaston turn back into a colored version of itself before the Pacman gets it or will the Pacman eat the white ghost? XD
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Storm, any thoughts on the ULL to its WNW, and how it might influence the storm?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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