Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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835. IKE
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Are there any weather buoys in the BOC? Anybody have a link to the one closest to 90L?


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Are there any weather buoys in the BOC? Anybody have a link to the one closest to 90L?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Give me 10-15 minutes.


I will wait before turning this thnig off.
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832. IKE
132 hr. 18Z GFS.....shows an eastern Atlantic storm and Gaston a no-show....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Miami: Why did you ban me? I haven't done anything to you.
You're banned? Odd. Try again.
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Quoting Eugeniopr:


We are waiting.
Give me 10-15 minutes.
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Miami: Why did you ban me? I haven't done anything to you.
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Yeah Idaho I agree with was just trying to be a stick. Also managed to get the wrong blogger because of the quote. Should have realized must have been a canes fan to hate the Gators.For lengthy reason I am a fan of both, but I am sure no one cares.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
maddox you dont know what yur talking about, its getting better organized....
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maddox you dont know what yur talking about, its getting better organized....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
geez my ignore list is growing faster than Ozzy Osbourne's' dead brain cells


Hey Hurricanes101!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm out. LOL. J/k.

I'm updating my blog...I'll have it out in a few minutes.


We are waiting.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
geez my ignore list is growing faster than Ozzy Osbourne's' dead brain cells


I have 52 right now and it looks like it's about to increase
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geez my ignore list is growing faster than Ozzy Osbourne's' dead brain cells
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EX-Gaston consists of one tiny thunderstorm top:
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BDA is clearly clueless, do not listen to this person; no models show this system recurving
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Quoting KanKunKid:

Night? Maybe. I spent the day with a Cat 4 (Charlie) it was fun and educational and I would do it again in a heart beat. Getting smacked in the face with a big fish? Let's see...?? Hmmmm. Well, suffice it to say, it's not even on the list, which I might add is long, but distinguished.


nice Top Gun reference......
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I'm not sure that observations of the game qualify has "a lot of talk" but I will say the BSU doesn't shy away from anyone and as long as we have this rediculuous BCS system in place we won't know how Div. 1 teams REALLY stack up against each other.
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Quoting aquak9:
KanKun is here?

I'm outta here--
LOL!!
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Quoting canehater1:
Anything can happen in the GOM if conditions are right...Link


What happens in the GOM stays in the GOM.... LOL
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Anything can happen in the GOM if conditions are right...Link
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Quoting KanKunKid:
I must have hit the mark pretty close with Chicklit, or she logged off..


I'm in MEXICO! Im not stalking you or looking in your kitchen window!


She left to get a restraining order...:(
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Gaston will be recurving in 3 days anyway. Thats if he is a storm at that time. You guys in the Caymans do not need to worry yourselves sick at this time.
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KanKun is here?

I'm outta here--
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Quoting Hou77083:
From the Houston Chronicle today, hope we can get some of that rain here in Houston


Statement as of 3:30 PM CDT on September 5, 2010

... Locally heavy rainfall expected this week as area of disturbed
weather in the Gulf impacts south Texas...

Moisture from an area of disturbed weather over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche will move into south Texas
during the next few days. As a result... rain chances will increase
Monday and Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall possible over south
Texas as early as Monday night.

At this time... the main impact from the area of disturbed weather
will be heavy rainfall... as this system is expected to move
northwest and into northeastern Mexico on Tuesday. However... since
the area of disturbed weather is not organized at this time...
there still is some uncertainty on where this system will
eventually track and whether it will become an organized tropical
system.

Even if it remains a non-organized tropical system and moves into
northeastern Mexico on Tuesday... the copious moisture amounts from
this system will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms at least through mid week... with the heaviest
rainfall and possible flooding expected Monday night through
Tuesday night.

Average rainfall amounts Monday through Wednesday night are
expected average between 2 and 4 inches... with isolated amounts
around 10 inches possible. This could result in flooding...
especially over low lying or flood prone areas. A Flood Watch may
be required on Monday or Monday night.

Tropical funnel clouds will also be possible during this
time... which generally remain aloft but at times have been known
to briefly touch down.

Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Weather Service concerning this evolving weather event.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... commercial radio or television
for further updates. You can also keep abreast of the latest
forecasts and statements on our website:

Www.Weather.Gov/corpuschristi (all lower case).


I sure hope we do get some here in the Houston area!
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wunderground is having its own issues, with Google Chrome. You used to be able to view it on there, but now the chrome updates for some reason do not allow one to view it.
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, it appears I'm running everyone off the blog. first StormW and now Chicklit. So I better leave before Pilotguy logs out.
Good evening bloggers! enjoy the holiday and I hope to see you when Gaston's fate has been decided!
I'm out. LOL. J/k.

I'm updating my blog...I'll have it out in a few minutes.
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From the Houston Chronicle today, hope we can get some of that rain here in Houston


Statement as of 3:30 PM CDT on September 5, 2010

... Locally heavy rainfall expected this week as area of disturbed
weather in the Gulf impacts south Texas...

Moisture from an area of disturbed weather over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche will move into south Texas
during the next few days. As a result... rain chances will increase
Monday and Tuesday with locally heavy rainfall possible over south
Texas as early as Monday night.

At this time... the main impact from the area of disturbed weather
will be heavy rainfall... as this system is expected to move
northwest and into northeastern Mexico on Tuesday. However... since
the area of disturbed weather is not organized at this time...
there still is some uncertainty on where this system will
eventually track and whether it will become an organized tropical
system.

Even if it remains a non-organized tropical system and moves into
northeastern Mexico on Tuesday... the copious moisture amounts from
this system will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms at least through mid week... with the heaviest
rainfall and possible flooding expected Monday night through
Tuesday night.

Average rainfall amounts Monday through Wednesday night are
expected average between 2 and 4 inches... with isolated amounts
around 10 inches possible. This could result in flooding...
especially over low lying or flood prone areas. A Flood Watch may
be required on Monday or Monday night.

Tropical funnel clouds will also be possible during this
time... which generally remain aloft but at times have been known
to briefly touch down.

Residents should continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the
National Weather Service concerning this evolving weather event.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio... commercial radio or television
for further updates. You can also keep abreast of the latest
forecasts and statements on our website:

Www.Weather.Gov/corpuschristi (all lower case).
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Unfortunately storms that wind up making the trek across the Caribbean during this time of year depending on where the troughs come across have a habit of eyeing up South Florida and the Gulf coast regions.
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796. Vero1
Quoting lhwhelk:

Houston/Galveston radar has been "down for maintenance" all day and part of yesterday. Trying to "animate" it gives big leaps of time, all from the a.m.


Stimulus money ran out
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Not to mention N.C. dropping two passes in the end zone that could have won the game for them!


How about them Gators - LOL. If they played any division 1 team they would have been crushed. Ranked #4? They are not a top 20 team this year.
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793. Relix
Now I know the structure and SSTs are there but dry air and shear are hitting it hard. let's see what the night brings.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2659
Quoting cloudy0day:


Having trouble here in E Central FL. All the Orlando, Melbourne, Jax or Tampa radars indicate that they are down for maintiance.

Houston/Galveston radar has been "down for maintenance" all day and part of yesterday. Trying to "animate" it gives big leaps of time, all from the a.m.
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791. Relix
Well I honestly expect nothing from Gaston in PR. Heck I will be surprised if it does ramp up intensity soon.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2659
790. JLPR2
Well now, goodnight Gaston! It should be interesting watching you tonight.

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Thanks JLPR2, so Gaston isn't going to be a typical case since it has stayed so weak (among other reasons). If Hispanola doesn't tear it up, it could be a real threat.
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Quoting Hurricanman:


No, I can see all three of those radar sites, and I can see your storms.
have had issues with radar all day. had thunder checked radar showed nothing 1 hour 3.50 inches had fallen whats the problem
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785. Vero1
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Afternoon.
What happened to Gaston?


He is still Deep Sea Fishing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.