Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Nice catch xcool. I've been watching the buoy and pressure is steadily dropping.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Member Since: September 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

And this just happens to be your first comment? Please, make your trolling a little less obvious. XD
Hi Kori. I just got back on so is the heaviest convection now over the coc ?
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933. xcool


nice
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Quoting KoritheMan:


A -2 for you maybe, because you fail at trolling.

But I suppose it would only be fair to give you an A for effort. ;)


Id of thought the A stood for something else
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Which is sad, since a storm in those waters has the potential to become a serious hurricane.


I know. :(
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting ozzyman236:
A -2


A -2 for you maybe, because you fail at trolling.

But I suppose it would only be fair to give you an A for effort. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unfortunately, when a storm enters the Caribbean, there's no way out except through land.

Which is sad, since a storm in those waters has the potential to become a serious hurricane.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Quoting KoritheMan:


Member Since: September 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

And this just happens to be your first comment? Please, make your trolling a little less obvious. XD
1+
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924. xcool
HEY ALL.LOL
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Quoting ozzyman236:
Mr Gaston R.I.P


Member Since: September 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

And this just happens to be your first comment? Please, make your trolling a little less obvious. XD
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
hunkerdown Skye
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That looks very bad. For us. I'm thinking of 2 disastrous scenarios with that pattern:
-Haiti Floods
-Yucatan Destruction
Hopefully none of them will happen.


Unfortunately, when a storm enters the Caribbean, there's no way out except through land.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting JLPR2:


Exactly XD
lol
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917. Skyepony (Mod)
I'm about to get slammed by a severe thunder storm..NWS has warnings out...looked like a green wall coming. Too bad radar is down for maintenance.
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Quoting BDADUDE:

Only time will tell I guess.


he is not developed enough to feel a weakness just yet
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Quoting JLPR2:


What?

That looks very bad. For us. I'm thinking of 2 disastrous scenarios with that pattern:
-Haiti Floods
-Yucatan Destruction
Hopefully none of them will happen.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
914. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
What weakness


Exactly XD
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Quoting KoritheMan:


A slight weakness may well develop in the ridge, but it shouldn't occur until after Gaston enters the Caribbean.

Only time will tell I guess.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at some of the satellites Gaston does have a large circulation at the surface he just doesn't have enough moisture at this time to work with,

Correct, he only appears small because of limited convection, his circulation covers quite a bit of area, looks like he might be one if he gains strength to carry very high waves,jmo.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Why does nobody see the weakness that is going to pull Gaston North?


Ummmm.... what exactly are you looking at?
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Quoting JLPR2:


What?
What weakness
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Why does nobody see the weakness that is going to pull Gaston North?


A slight weakness may well develop in the ridge, but it shouldn't occur until after Gaston enters the Caribbean.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20573
Quoting want2lrn:


would love a good soaking....but that is all!! Thank you for the help


You're welcome. :) Hope that's all anyone gets. Just hope somehow it misses Haiti completely.
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907. Vero1
Quoting BDADUDE:
Why does nobody see the weakness that is going to pull Gaston North?


Because there isn't any
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905. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:
Why does nobody see the weakness that is going to pull Gaston North?


What?
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Looking at some of the satellites Gaston does have a large circulation at the surface he just doesn't have enough moisture at this time to work with,
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Why does nobody see the weakness that is going to pull Gaston North?
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902. JLPR2
Well, time to watch the ants.
The ants here disappeared 2 days before Earl passed 100miles to my NE and returned two days after Fiona moved away from the area, they seem to have the right idea. XD
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update

Ex-Gaston still very likely to redevelop

Thanks.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5682
Here's a good Link for the BOC system
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WOW. you can clearly see banding with the spin. Zoom in.Link
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mh09, will you post a link to your blog so i can put it on my favs...thank you
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


The yellow blob on about Corpus Christi. Here's the loop you can follow it from the Atlantic. Good thing though it's not showing development.
Link


would love a good soaking....but that is all!! Thank you for the help
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Quoting want2lrn:


Newbie here...where do you see that on the chart?


The yellow blob on about Corpus Christi. Here's the loop you can follow it from the Atlantic. Good thing though it's not showing development.
Link
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Quoting cyclonekid:
MH09 and others...I made these graphics in honor of 90L. Do you think that this could possibly happen (the Projected Path and the Tropical Storm Warnings)





Very much so yes.
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Quoting KanKunKid:


OK, you bet I will. Long story, (So's my Johnson ha! another quote) I was supposed to be a data point for NHC. Got robbed by corrupt police 10 miles from the USA. Mexico provides suction!
Still alive, got my guitar and a sense of humor.
I want to see another hurricane but not in Mexico! Keep up the good work dude!
LOL, thank you.
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BOC buoy showing some signs of life..

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Quoting cyclonekid:
MH09 and others...I made these graphics in honor of 90L. Do you think that this could possibly happen (the Projected Path and the Tropical Storm Warnings)







Looks about right to me from what I've seen and read.
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The ULL to the nw is hurting Gaston for sure if it stays to close it will always be the Bonnie scenario for sure and like so many we have watched the last couple of years. But if given the chance we have all seen how fast this things can intensify.It's in the right place but it might be at the wrong time, Ike, there is a song something like that no.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
ACK! The EURO sends Gaston to TX! Lol. ;)


Newbie here...where do you see that on the chart?
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
two more storm back of it.


Yeah. :( I'm ignoring those. :D
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90L look to have that spin and it moving N or even NE... Any thoughts?
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MH09 and others...I made these graphics in honor of 90L. Do you think that this could possibly happen (the Projected Path and the Tropical Storm Warnings)





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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.