Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this added a other troll too my wall of trolls


lol

You're too much, Taz.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting shawn26:
Miami, any chance of Charley type of track?
We would need an unusually amplified trof for September that's for sure. But hey, that's been the trend this year, and it happened in August of 2004, so it's a possibility...I can't rule it out this early in the game.
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Quoting Vero1:


And the models are moving west


shalllow steering layer
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Why did you block me? I'm not a troll, just a lurker...


Not you.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, I'd put it around 16.9N 52.3/52.4W based off of shortwave.
So either his coc slipped south a bit or he never really was at 17.0N right ?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, I'd put it around 16.9N 52.3/52.4W based off of shortwave.

0.01 below 17N...it's not at 17 anymore! lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not you.


Yeah, you blocked me. It says so when I click on your name.
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Wow. What a lame season.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, but it will be gradual until around 24-30 hours from now, when an anticyclone could become collocated with the center.

Right now, he's still experiencing some moderate easterly shear, which is pumping the dry air to the east into the circulation. But the magnitude of this dry air is not nearly as severe as we've seen previously.

So slow development can be expected until tomorrow night or Tuesday morning.
Thanks.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Why did you block me? I'm not a troll, just a lurker...
Not you.
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973. Vero1
Quoting ElConando:


Omg it's annular.


And the models are moving west
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Quoting ElConando:


Omg it's annular.


Ya know, one day someone is gonna misspell that one.

I see ex-gaston finally got a little convection over the center.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Miami, isn't the coc below 17N now ?
Yeah, I'd put it around 16.9N 52.3/52.4W based off of shortwave.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. Now he can begin intensifying, correct ?


Yeah, but it will be gradual until around 24-30 hours from now, when an anticyclone could become collocated with the center.

Right now, he's still experiencing some moderate easterly shear, which is pumping the dry air to the east into the circulation. But the magnitude of this dry air is not nearly as severe as we've seen previously.

So slow development can be expected until tomorrow night or Tuesday morning.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
969. xcool
AtHomeInTX hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting ElConando:


Omg it's annular.

lol This blog is hilarious!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
#36...36,36,36...#36 on my poof list...#36. SOLD to the troll!


Why did you block me? I'm not a troll, just a lurker...
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


There must be someway out . . .
Excellent and such a waste of talent.
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Miami, any chance of Charley type of track?
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17n
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Quoting doorman79:


PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!! lol

Evening everyone!


Omg it's annular.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


There must be someway out . . .


Great song. :)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting ozzyman236:
i can't remember we didn't have a storm for the labor day going some place..this is incredible it shows you how slow this season is..
lol yea slow season indeed!Keep trying dude!
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Miami, isn't the coc below 17N now ?
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Quoting Vero1:


Which radar?

Any radar in Mexico where 90L is visible.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


just ignore the clown, he obviously has no clue


lol I know

It's so fun, though.

Time to poof him.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
#36...36,36,36...#36 on my poof list...#36. SOLD to the troll!
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Has ex Gaston moved slightly south of due west over last few hours , i suspect advisories will begin at 11pm.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yellow! *faints*
The sarcasm is overwhelming there LOL!


PINHOLE EYE!!!!!!!! lol

Evening everyone!
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952. Vero1
MELbourne FL: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
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950. Vero1
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Do you have a link to that radar?


Which radar?
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949. JLPR2


Yellow! *faints*
The sarcasm is overwhelming there LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
For anyone that missed it earlier and is interested:

Blog Update

Ex-Gaston still very likely to redevelop
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Quoting KoritheMan:


HERP DERP


just ignore the clown, he obviously has no clue
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. That appears to be the case.
Thanks. Now he can begin intensifying, correct ?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Id of thought the A stood for something else


lol perhaps.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting ozzyman236:
you know guys think about it this is september 5 just about the peak of hurricane season and we don't have 1 storm to talk about..tropics are really not here this year..


HERP DERP
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting xcool:


nice

Do you have a link to that radar?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Kori. I just got back on so is the heaviest convection now over the coc ?


Yes. That appears to be the case.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
941. Vero1
Quoting Skyepony:
I'm about to get slammed by a severe thunder storm..NWS has warnings out...looked like a green wall coming. Too bad radar is down for maintenance.


MEL radar is up :: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Id of thought the A stood for something else

So did I...
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Quoting ozzyman236:
A strong cold front coming down will cool the ssts in the tropics..


lolwut

What "strong cold front"? The longwave trough we just had didn't even cool the SSTs. We won't start getting what can justifiably be called "cold fronts" until October.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 598 Comments: 21160
Quoting xcool:
HEY ALL.LOL


Hey xcool. :)
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Nice catch xcool. I've been watching the buoy and pressure is steadily dropping.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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