Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
And latest raw estimates put it right at 4.0. Thankfully this thing doesn't have much time over water.


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


So CIMSS estimates it at Hurricane Stregnth. If that's true, we have a rapidly deepening system.

Yes, welcome to the 2010 ATL TC Season..and watch out for Gaston, he will be TROUBLE!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2781. dxdy
If TS Hermine in testifies into a hurricane, what are the chances of it being drawn more northward towards Corpus Christi?
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When I see information on the web-site I see two storms. When I see sat photos, I see one storm. WHAT GIVES ?????
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2779. Vero1
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.


They turned around because They heard that Patrap started the grill!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Can't they send out the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance squadron again like they did for Marco? Because by the time the next recon goes into Hermine, she'll probably be inland.
I'm not sure how it works, but I would assume they would be doing everything they could to get data with a storm this close to land.
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2777. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.
If Hermine were to slow down, it might a strong cat-one at landfall.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.


Hurricane watches are already up
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Quoting Bordonaro:

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH :O)


So CIMSS estimates it at Hurricane Stregnth. If that's true, we have a rapidly deepening system.
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Quoting ozzyman236:
teddy you the trouble maker ..all i did was said how weatherguy03 was dead on ...i have that right he does a wonderful job and never hedges..he tells it like it is like some other people i know..

Definitely..Maybe we should email the NHC!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH O)
And latest raw estimates put it right at 4.0. Thankfully this thing doesn't have much time over water.
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Happy Labor Day to all Americans! Can someone please point out the center of ex-Gaston? Thanks!
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2771. Ryuujin
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.
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Can't they send out the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance squadron again like they did for Marco? Because by the time the next recon goes into Hermine, she'll probably be inland.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
Especially considering the next flight is scheduled for overnight hours and its so close to land.
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I hope the Labor Day folks know Hermine is coming!!!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 23:13:25 N Lon : 95:42:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

4.0 is 65kts or 75MPH :O)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine looking like high TS / Low cat1 landfall.


I definitely agree.
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btwntx: Missouri City here, you geting much rain your way?
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2760. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I apologize if this has been stated recently, but can anybody give a current center fix on ex-Gaston? Thank you.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

So Hermine is at 990.5MB, her minds are about 65MPH?


Perhaps. The DVORAK-T Numbers they use to issue advisory intensities are just estimates, not actual numbers, keep in mind.
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2756. hydrus
Quoting JupiterFL:


Man yall are uptight. I love that show.
So when you were little, and The 3 Stooges were on TV, did your parents freak out because Curley took an iron to the side of his face?
There is that cut through the manure humor I like.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 23:13:25 N Lon : 95:42:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.8 3.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just ignore ozzy, he's only here to cause trouble. I agree weatherguy is a absolutely amazing forecaster but he isn't the only one.

Hopefully, ozzy will be gone by lunchtime.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


It might just be me, but as a person who has done more SAR work then I even want to think about... he is dangerous... he is going to get some SAR Tech killed with his foolishness.


Bearing a grudge does not justify CENSORSHIP...EVER

This needs to go private.


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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI





The center of circulation is definately visible on the long range loops.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
Quoting ozzyman236:
orca it sounds like to me you are jealous of cyclone oz...


ROFLMAO, yeah thats it.. I am getting old.
I am sorry... my idea of excitement is a long walk down a fairway with a putter in my hand :)
(I wish I could remember who said that, so I could give them proper credit)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2746. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


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Quoting itrackstorms:
000
URNT11 KNHC 061505
92229 15034 21272 91909 73100 99005 6566/ /5762
RMK AF303 0110A HERMINE OB 04
LAST REPORT

Well, looks like Hermine wants to be come our 4th hurricane of the season :O)..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Hermine's shot at hurricane status depends on her speed.

If she slows down a bit, she could.

Based on the differences between the NHC co-ordinates at each advisory, it's not impossible, but unlikely.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
So some think!! Those are the ones who will be having BBQ crow when all is said and done... Y'all have a great Labor day and everyone, everywhere, be safe.


Yep. You too. Enjoy your labor day. ;)
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Does anyone know how to bring up the long range reflectivity loop from the National Weather Service in Brownsville?

It a great loop and looks really far south into the GOM.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
Quoting calusakat:


If the Dr and Oz have problems, let them deal with it. Likewise let the rest of the group decide for themselves


Well, in all fairness, the Dr. did deal with Oz...he banned him.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13556
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Lol. Good morning Katrina.
Good Morning!
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Sadly, Hermine is probably stronger than 50 mph, and this is a perfect disaster for not warning people before-hand.

So Hermine is at 990.5MB, her minds are about 65MPH?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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