Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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1034. Relix
Seems like Gaston will amount to only a bit of rainfall as it passes south of PR. Next I say. I do expect rainy conditions here.
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1033. xcool
bye Gaston no hope
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
1031. Vero1
Quoting pilotguy1:


http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mlb&product=NCR&loop=no

Try this link. It's working.


that is what I have been saying. NEXRAD is down but NWS is up.
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90L 80%? it has been getting more organized but still 80%?

I doubt this can become a TS so I doubt it will be even a TD.
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Quoting flightweatherfan:
i think unless ex-gaston makes an impressive combac, it will pass through the islads as a wave at most and bring some beneficial showers. atleast thats what im hoping for.
Dude, change your avatar, someone else already "owns" it.
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A list of some trolls.
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i think unless ex-gaston makes an impressive combac, it will pass through the islads as a wave at most and bring some beneficial showers. atleast thats what im hoping for.
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So to the "experts" here: will Gaston re-emerge? And if so...where does it go?
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Quoting StormW:
They just keep straying in, don't they.
Like flies.
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I think they messed up the percentages...

Ex-Gaston: 60%
90L: 80%

EDIT: Never mind, I read the TWO again, I see why the percentages changed.
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gastone down too 60% 90L up to 80%
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1019. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Evening all
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Quoting StormW:
They just keep straying in, don't they.


Evening Storm,

I must say "if ignorance is bliss" was the best comment of the year so far. lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, it could have advected a little to the south to be under the recent convective burst. Low level steering in the area would suggest that it may take a slight dive towards the WSW too.





Ex-Gaston took on black cloud tops, like his wo- nvm.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Yeah, but it will be gradual until around 24-30 hours from now, when an anticyclone could become collocated with the center.

"Collocated" - yikes - gonna have to look that one up! This may displace "annular" as a blog favorite.
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00
ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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1013. Vero1
Quoting pilotguy1:


Which radar is that?


It appears NEXRAD is down.. However NWS radars are up.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1009. xcool



nhc plz drop lameGaston
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting xcool:
i'm not going lie this hurricane season kind boring .jmo .

The season stopped being boring to me when Earl turned into a hurricane.
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1007. shawn26
90%
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, it could have advected a little to the south to be under the recent convective burst. Low level steering in the area would suggest that it may take a slight dive towards the WSW too.



Thank you. Looking more and more like it will go into the
Caribbean.
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im thinking no change 80%
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1001. Vero1
Quoting btwntx08:
ok precentages for 8pm??anyone


no change
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1000. aquak9
kristina- I opened a really lame blog, to start the winter garden. Just click on my name.

I am starting to get a tummy ache when I look at Gaston(Gerbil)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
977. lickitysplit 4:27 PM PDT on September 05, 2010 Hide this comment.
Wow. What a lame season.


# 29 too my wall of trolls lol


Taz,
Itchy trigger finger this evening I see. ;)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So either his coc slipped south a bit or he never really was at 17.0N right ?
Yeah, it could have advected a little to the south to be under the recent convective burst. Low level steering in the area would suggest that it may take a slight dive towards the WSW too.



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996. xcool
i'm not going lie this hurricane season kind boring .jmo .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
TD?
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Good Evening everyone! looks like this season is a wait and see. these storms and ereas of interest are keeping us on our edge.
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My ignore list reaches #13. Guess who. :)
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yeah, you blocked me. It says so when I click on your name.
I've never blocked you. If you want to go to my blog, go ahead...you're not blocked, you've never been.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Yeah, you blocked me. It says so when I click on your name.


Uhm, if he blocked you he wouldn't be replying to your post, that he obviously can see ;)
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Great reads there 09. Thanks!
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Any chance of Charlie type track?
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Is there somewhere posted a list of all the trolls?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this added a other troll too my wall of trolls


lol

You're too much, Taz.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.