Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Amen well stated.

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
if folks would just goe through a 3 part ritual every time one of these guys appears life would so much better.
#1. hit the red flag ! this alerts admin that there is an issue.

#2. hit the minus - if enough members do this person is basically voted off the blog and may not reappear if admin bans.

#3. if reappears hit the ignore as may be a personality issue between you and poster and others may not find as annoying as you but hey life is too short to be aggravated while engaged in what is supposed to be a pleasurable activity.

Every quote or response to a troll is a vote for them to stick around. They want to piss you off and wallow in your abuse because it means they got to you. Don't play their game you loose every time.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Still status quo in the tropics this evening. Gaston is about to reach the "sweet spot" for weak system to develop so let's see what happens between 55 and 63 W.

The track continues off to the West which is potentially very dangerous given the SST in the Caribbean.
Hey good evening Kman! We currently stand at ex-Gaston 6.0. Check out the 18z dynamical models...they shifted towards the left...a lot.

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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Still status quo in the tropics this evening. Gaston is about to reach the "sweet spot" for weak system to develop so let's see what happens between 55 and 63 W.

The track continues off to the West which is potentially very dangerous given the SST in the Caribbean.
Models have shifted into the Caribbean now also. How was your game ?
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Good evening all

Still status quo in the tropics this evening. Gaston is about to reach the "sweet spot" for weak system to develop so let's see what happens between 55 and 63 W.

The track continues off to the West which is potentially very dangerous given the SST in the Caribbean.
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Quoting btwntx08:
very true matt(1071)
Thank You! Glad someone agrees with me.
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1080. xcool


i




i




Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Miami, how can you change your avatar? I've been wondering for a while now.
1. Click your own avatar.

2. Once you're taken to the new page with a larger view of your avatar look to the upper right hand side of your screen. Once that is completed click on "upload photos".



3. Now that you've clicked on that, you'll be taken to yet another new page. On that page click on where it says "Choose Photos To Upload!"

4. Click the photo you want to upload from your files.

5. Fill out all the necessary information, then click "Send All to Photo Approval Queue.



6. Wait for approval.

7. Click on "display as primary portrait".

All done.
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1078. breald
Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, I see that the kiddies, trolls, and institutionalized--often one and the same--are starting to filter back in now that they've finished their dinners of mashed peas, mashed potatoes, and vanilla pudding, but before the nice nurse lady comes around with their their nighty-night meds. With that in mind, let me just post this all-in-one and all-at-once comment intended to maybe let the rest of the evening be about, you know, tropical weather:




LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Guess the flyboys got bored.


Storm, you mentioned this morning that you thought that Gaston would need about 36 hrs. more before getting better organized. That would be tomorrow evening, are you still thinking along those lines?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Goo? lol


Typed too fast lol.
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Those are just some "clouds over Africa" Storm...or so I've been told.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, I see that the kiddies, trolls, and institutionalized--often one and the same--are starting to filter back in now that they've finished their dinners of mashed peas, mashed potatoes, and vanilla pudding, but before the nice nurse lady comes around with their their nighty-night meds. With that in mind, let me just post this all-in-one and all-at-once comment intended to maybe let the rest of the evening be about, you know, tropical weather:



Love It!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok. I've got to say this because it needs to be addressed. I see people are saying things along the lines of "thats to high" or "thats to low". Look, the NHC know what they are doing. They're the professionals. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with having your opinion. I'm just saying trust the NHC because they know what they're doing because they're the professionals. =)
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Quoting StormW:
Yep...that's it boys and girls...let's go home...the season is over.



lol Africa puked.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Okay, I see that the kiddies, trolls, and institutionalized--often one and the same--are starting to filter back in now that they've finished their dinners of mashed peas, mashed potatoes, and vanilla pudding, but before the nice nurse lady comes around with their their nighty-night meds. With that in mind, let me just post this all-in-one and all-at-once comment intended to maybe let the rest of the evening be about, you know, tropical weather:



WOW, can't say more, just WOW!! That is fantastic ROFLMAO!!
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1057. Neapolitan 6:46 PM EST on September 05, 2010

There's more but that covers it well enough. Maybe should post it every day about 3pm when school lets out then again at 7pm when dinner is over.
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Quoting futuremet:


Goo to see you too StormW.

Goo? lol
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Quoting StormW:


Guess the flyboys got bored.
But most of the dry air looks to be behind him now. Doesn't look like much in front of him now.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

wow they have really downcasted gaston

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

wow they have overcasted/hypedcasted 90L

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

There should have been two 80% circles with the main focuses, plus a new yellow circle with that wave off of Africa.
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Quoting StormW:
Hey futuremet, good to see you tonight!


Good to see you too StormW.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

wow they have really downcasted gaston

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

wow they have overcasted/hypedcasted 90L

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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1058. Relix
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Did you actually read the TWO?

you did this with Earl to and then started panicking when you were wrong


I am a pessimist/optimist! lol!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Did you actually read the TWO?

you did this with Earl to and then started panicking when you were wrong
He is trying to convince himself, that's all. What you call, wishful thinking.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea after reading the NHC still feels confident that Gaston will redevelop, just not until he gets closer to 60W; which is what most on here have been saying


For you trolls, this IS NOT an RIP at all
Exactly. It still has a very good chance to become a tropical cyclone again. But you know that a few will come out...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dude, change your avatar, someone else already "owns" it.

Miami, how can you change your avatar? I've been wondering for a while now.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say Gastoms COC is at 16.5N 52.5W moving WSW
It is still moving west just that the coc slipped under the deeper convection.
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1051. xcool
WeatherNerdPR lol iknow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting Relix:
Seems like Gaston will amount to only a bit of rainfall as it passes south of PR. Next I say. I do expect rainy conditions here.


Did you actually read the TWO?

you did this with Earl to and then started panicking when you were wrong
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7580
Ex-Gaston is starting to feel the effects of the upper level low's diffluent flow. This system's structure should start improving once it reaches 55 degrees west.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think they messed up the percentages...

Ex-Gaston: 60%
90L: 80%

EDIT: Never mind, I read the TWO again, I see why the percentages changed.


yea after reading the NHC still feels confident that Gaston will redevelop, just not until he gets closer to 60W; which is what most on here have been saying


For you trolls, this IS NOT an RIP at all
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7580
I say Gastoms COC is at 16.5N 52.5W moving WSW
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Quoting xcool:
bye Gaston no hope

Don't be that way. Gaston just had a bad afternoon, that's all.
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Quoting flightweatherfan:



thanks miami will find one
No problem, just make sure it isn't one somebody else already uses.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dude, change your avatar, someone else already "owns" it.



thanks miami will find one
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Quoting PcolaDan:
A list of some trolls.
LOL. I love it.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


just ignore the clown, he obviously has no clue
if folks would just goe through a 3 part ritual every time one of these guys appears life would so much better.
#1. hit the red flag ! this alerts admin that there is an issue.

#2. hit the minus - if enough members do this person is basically voted off the blog and may not reappear if admin bans.

#3. if reappears hit the ignore as may be a personality issue between you and poster and others may not find as annoying as you but hey life is too short to be aggravated while engaged in what is supposed to be a pleasurable activity.

Every quote or response to a troll is a vote for them to stick around. They want to piss you off and wallow in your abuse because it means they got to you. Don't play their game you loose every time.
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1038. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dude, change your avatar, someone else already "owns" it.


I have seen a few persons repeating avatars lately, what's up with that? XD
So many options and they pick the ones already used by others.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8669
Quoting ElConando:
90L 80%? it has been getting more organized but still 80%?

I doubt this can become a TS so I doubt it will be even a TD.
Yeah I'm quite surprised it got up to 80%...I was thinking 50-60%. Doesn't really have the convective organization or structure of a tropical cyclone...yet.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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