Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting InTheCone:


Where would you estimate the center to be located?

BTW - there IS a hurricane warning for Columbus next Saturday - LOL!


I heard that too lol. Gonna be a lot of damage there.
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Quoting weathermancer:
I dunno... the convection has been firing along the LLC all day... with colder cloud tops on evening satellite. LLC just itching to get into favorable environment. And as soon as Guston does...


Guston?
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Quoting futuremet:


I think he lives in Bermuda.


My thinking as well!!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
I dunno... the convection has been firing along the LLC all day... with colder cloud tops on evening satellite. LLC just itching to get into favorable environment. And as soon as Guston does...

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Quoting futuremet:


I think he lives in Bermuda.

BDA stands for Bermuda. :)
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Quoting InTheCone:


Where would you estimate the center to be located?

BTW - there IS a hurricane warning for Columbus next Saturday - LOL!
LOL, roughly around 21.4N 95.2W.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I think so too...sometimes we all see systems coming our way..

Quoting futuremet:


I think he lives in Bermuda.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ouch, TAFB also at T2.0 with ex-Gaston. That would make ex-Gaston a 35mph tropical cyclone.

TAFB, WB, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.5 PAT=


Guess we'll find out in an hour.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
This is the reason behind BDAs thinking






I think he lives in Bermuda.
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Quoting JLPR2:


hmm...
the NHC downcasting... nah... :S
Let's see how Gaston looks at 11pm before saying the NHC is wrong, convection might go poof. :P

Or look like a hurricane's convection XD
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Going to take my newly engaged son and the poor girl out for a celebration dinner :)
Will check back later...



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Congratulations, Orca!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Some impressive cloud tops starting to fire in and around 90L. This guy is destined to become 10L.



Where would you estimate the center to be located?

BTW - there IS a hurricane warning for Columbus next Saturday - LOL!
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Ouch, TAFB also at T2.0 with ex-Gaston. That would make ex-Gaston a 35mph tropical cyclone.

TAFB, WB, I, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.5 PAT=
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
This is the reason behind BDAs thinking




Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Hmmmmmm one would think that 90L would be moving northeast along the boundary. Kinda weird to see it going against the grain
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Our new website...and other info...
Link
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I know what you are thinking....and it is reasonable, if he was about 250 miles further or more east.

I think futuremet is right on this one, he gets too far west before the weakness develops, no matter what the intensity.

Quoting BDADUDE:

TY. Gaston is weak now but people are posting that he is going to blow up. If this happens he will turn towards the N.W in 3-4 days. All im saying is that the potential is there.
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1215. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This is an awkward moment. I'm not so sure why the estimates went up like that.


hmm...
the NHC downcasting... nah... :S
Let's see how Gaston looks at 11pm before saying the NHC is wrong, convection might go poof. :P
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If we get a renumber, it'll be around 10pm EDT.


I know i'm just saying.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
I never said they weren't right all the time. Look at Gaston for example. They were expecting it to reach Category 2 intensity and it dissipated the next day. But I'm saying trust them because MOST OF THE TIME meaning 99% of the time, they are correct. They really did do a good job of predicting Danielle and Earl for example.


You should not forget this place is sprinkled with plenty of professionals as well - though plenty are also just hobbyist or casual observers as well. I think most know the forums are not official forecasts. Personally, as someone who lives right on the east coast, I learn a whole lot more about a storm here than I do from the terse official NHC advisories... leaving me in a more informed position to make decisions. I use the info gained here in addition to, not instead of, the NHC's updates. I certainly appreciate all who post opinions, judgments, and research here.
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Quoting ElConando:


If there is no renumber than there wouldn't be anyway.
If we get a renumber, it'll be around 10pm EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting challengerpr:
05/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 GASTON -- Atlantic
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, that equates to a 35mph TD. TAFB will probably come in at the same estimate. Ex-Gaston should get re-classified tonight based on those estimates...although I doubt that the NHC actually will.
Quoting JLPR2:


eh... *scratches head* now what? XD

This is an awkward moment. I'm not so sure why the estimates went up like that.
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1210. BDADUDE
Quoting Goldenblack:
Okay....I am sorry, I apologize, coming on too hard. It is just when I was last on here this afternoon, you were saying the same thing. The problem is, wherever you are getting your information, you are looking at the wrong steering layer, that is why we keep posting the correct level for predicted strength. A MUCH stronger storm might feel the weakness that you are talking about at the DEEP LAYER.


TY. Gaston is weak now but people are posting that he is going to blow up. If this happens he will turn towards the N.W in 3-4 days. All im saying is that the potential is there.
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Going to take my newly engaged son and the poor girl out for a celebration dinner :)
Will check back later...



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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If not tonight, I think we'll see two systems active in the Atlantic tomorrow.
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Some impressive cloud tops starting to fire in and around 90L. This guy is destined to become 10L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BDADUDE:

Your not reading the full picture. Why do you keep showing that map? That map does not show the weakness.


The weakness will be there in about four to six days. Gaston will be far enough west for the effects of the trough to be negligible.

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(takes another drink of his labor day celebration).....IDK? Enjoy watching them scratch their heads? LOL

Quoting JLPR2:


eh... *scratches head* now what? XD
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, that equates to a 35mph TD. TAFB will probably come in at the same estimate. Ex-Gaston should get re-classified tonight based on those estimates...although I doubt that the NHC actually will.


If there is no renumber than there wouldn't be anyway.
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1200. Skyepony (Mod)
Water temp up to 86ºF under 90L today..
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Quoting Ameister12:

Double-post caster!

I just notice them that they double post so they can fix it fast. No harm done. lol
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Quoting BDADUDE:

If Gaston does survive then he will be directed north in 3-4 days. The weakness in the ridge will catch him and States of America.
send him between Bermuda and The United

????
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1197. JLPR2
Quoting challengerpr:
05/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 GASTON -- Atlantic


eh... *scratches head* now what? XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting challengerpr:
05/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 GASTON -- Atlantic
Wow, that equates to a 35mph TD. TAFB will probably come in at the same estimate. Ex-Gaston should get re-classified tonight based on those estimates...although I doubt that the NHC actually will.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, winds up 5mph and the pressure is down 1mb, yet the NHC dropped the percentage by 20%.

AL, 09, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 171N, 524W, 30, 1008, LO,

Gaston?
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05/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T2.0/2.0 GASTON -- Atlantic
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SAB up to T1.5 for 90L. We may very well have 10L if TAFB comes in at T2.0 (preferably).

05/2345 UTC 20.6N 95.4W T1.5/1.5 90L
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol Double-Post!

Double-post caster!
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Quoting ElConando:


It is back up to 30 kts?
Pressure down too.
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1190. JLPR2
Quoting BDADUDE:

Your not reading the full picture. Why do you keep showing that map? That map does not show the weakness.


If the map doesn't show a weakness then it means there isn't a any, that is the steering layer map, look at the high, it's solid and there is no weakness in sight, maybe in a few days, once Gaston is already in the Caribbean a weakness could show up but as of now, no.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Okay....I am sorry, I apologize, coming on too hard. It is just when I was last on here this afternoon, you were saying the same thing. The problem is, wherever you are getting your information, you are looking at the wrong steering layer, that is why we keep posting the correct level for predicted strength. A MUCH stronger storm might feel the weakness that you are talking about at the DEEP LAYER.

Quoting BDADUDE:

Your not reading the full picture. Why do you keep showing that map? That map does not show the weakness.
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Quoting BDADUDE:

Your not reading the full picture. Why do you keep showing that map? That map does not show the weakness.
Doesn't show it cause it's not there.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, this has to be a larger scale pressure drop. Notice the 1004-1006mb pressures across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The true central pressure then is near <1003mb, I assume.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, this has to be a larger scale pressure drop. Notice the 1004-1006mb pressures across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The true central pressure then is near <1003mb, I assume.


lol Double-Post!
EDIT: Never mind, you fixed it.
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BDADUDE why don't you show us your map?????
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nah, this has to be a larger scale pressure drop. Notice the 1004-1006mb pressures across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The true central pressure then is near <1003mb, I assume.



If you are right then the NHC had good reason to put a 80% chance on it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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