Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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1285. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
North movement alone is not gonna put 90L into Mexico, NNW would put it a MX/TX border, anything east of that we could see rapid development.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no


oh , ok
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. More time over water and more time to intensify. We may be dealing with Hermine soon.

Lets wait for a renumber in an hour.
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NNE?! 90L?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
lets hope not


Are you betting on storms again, jason, hmmmm??
lol
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Current movement of 90L yields a heading of NNE, about 025 degrees. 90L should curve back to the north soon, but as stated this would give 90L more time to strengthen and would put areas farther north in Mexico in play.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. More time over water and more time to intensify. We may be dealing with Hermine soon.
Do we have NNE movement?
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
so Gaston is a TD again ?


no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so Gaston is a TD again ?
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90L looks to go NW or NNW? because that much difference has significant implications on what it does and how long it stays over water.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know what it is. LOL.


"U" already know lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. More time over water and more time to intensify. We may be dealing with Hermine soon.


sweet
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
notice the movement, NNE


SmileyCentral.com
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1269. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting BDADUDE:
I do live in Bermuda and certainly dont think it will come near here. Im seeing it going more towards the Bahamas and Florida then skirting up the coast. This will only be the case if it undergoes rapid intensification in the next 3 days.


I've got to agree with this...if it under goes rapid intensification soon, then it could be a threat to Bahamas, FL & roll on up the coast. The models, steering & most don't think it will intensify much, letting it roll into the Caribbean. The ULL to the WNW is starting to kick Gaston some moisture. It's a formidable ULL that, strengthened alot today, could change the current set up, which at the moment more favors the gulf system. If the Gulf system took off, may help bridge the MJO. Lot of things in play, enough to give it an outside chance for now, but I wouldn't wager on it.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
NNE would not be good
Yup. More time over water and more time to intensify. We may be dealing with Hermine soon.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting RecordSeason:
1246:

when two cyclones are near one another they usually weaken each other.


Unless it's Alex. If it's Alex, it just eats everything on it's side of the planet and grows stronger: 92L, 94L, cat3 Darby, etc....


Thank you, RecordSeason. After reading here for two years, that's what I thought. Fiona so close to Earl weakened her, so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
AL, 90, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,
moving just east of due north
Makes sense I have never seen a storm move west agaianst a cold front
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I think something some do not realize is that even in the most active seasons there is a small lull of a few days to a week

look at 2005; after a ridiculous start there was only 1 named storm and 1 TD that formed in the period between August 4th and August 22nd; and for a good portion of mid-August; we were only tracking a fish storm named Irene.

So do not be caught off-guard by this very small lull in activity. You do not need to have storms every single day for it to still be an above average or even hyperactive season.
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1263. KYDan
I am not a Caster of any kind, I just watch, try to understand, and see if I can figure out what is going to happen to these systems before it happens.

From what I see in this current loop, Gaston has it's work cut out for it to intensify much in the short term (24-48 hrs) and his road ahead of that is paved with potholes.

Link

jmho
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Quoting RecordSeason:
1246:

when two cyclones are near one another they usually weaken each other.


Unless it's Alex. If it's Alex, it just eats everything on it's side of the planet and grows stronger: 92L, 94L, cat3 Darby, etc....

Alex killed Ex 92L and a miniature major hurricane, plus 51 people.
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NNE would not be good
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Just checking in to see if we are all still doom.

We are.


Guns are illegal in the wx Underground.
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notice the movement, NNE
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Quoting Vero1:


You bet.


Eeeekkkk!!!!! That's scary.
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Good evening all. The Carribean's hot enough to boil shrimp in. Could be an interesting week.
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1253. Vero1
Quoting DestinJeff:
Just checking in to see if we are all still doom.

We are.


You bet.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
No TD yet:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060057
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

1003mb?! Wow, that's low!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB

wow that is a low pressure for an invest
Wow not bad. Watch for a renumber right around 10pm EDT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB

wow that is a low pressure for an invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No TD yet:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060057
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13607
AL, 09, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 171N, 524W, 30, 1008, LO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just curious and this is totally hypothetical. Say the low in the GOMEX were to go north and become a Cat 1 or 2. Say Gaston were further along and headed into the Gulf where the two could meet up. What would happen?
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Satellite estimates for the remnants of Gaston are high enough to warrant upgrade, it just needs to sustain some convection. It does look like the environment is moistening, so Gaston could come back tomorrow if it can take advantage. As for 90L, I'd have to say that if it keeps this up it should be upgraded to TD 10 tonight.
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LOL, I have just been calling him the Gas man

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Guston?
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Quoting caneswatch:


I heard that too lol. Gonna be a lot of damage there.
You know what it is. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1238. BDADUDE
Quoting futuremet:


I think he lives in Bermuda.
I do live in Bermuda and certainly dont think it will come near here. Im seeing it going more towards the Bahamas and Florida then skirting up the coast. This will only be the case if it undergoes rapid intensification in the next 3 days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, roughly around 21.4N 95.2W.


Looks to have some water to work with there, hope it gets onshore quick!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Go easy on the guy....I have to respect the opinion...just hard when someone is predicting something that far from models, layer maps, and other observations. We all could be waaay off with our observations too, but I don't think that far off.

Quoting Goldenblack:
I think so too...sometimes we all see systems coming our way..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.