Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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1335. JLPR2
Quoting kmanislander:


No data for that area downloaded here


That page updates faster than the one you posted, dont ask me why. XD
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StormW, your feel for 90L?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
1333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM MALOU (T1009)
9:00 AM JST September 6 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In East China Sea

at 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Malou (990 hPa) located at 31.3N 126.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 34.3N 127.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 37.1N 132.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 37.8N 138.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting kmanislander:


No data for that area downloaded here
Hmm, I wonder where it came from then.
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1329. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


heading for land
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What the hell, Houston, Corpus, and Brownsville radar sites are still down for maint.... they getting ready for a storm or what.
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Invest can be a nice rain maker for us along the Texas Coast (Missouri City), but nothing more. I enjoy tracking storms when then are going to be fishes. So Taz, please no rooting this thing on.
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Quoting kmanislander:
The center of Gaston is near 17.1 N and 52.5 W or just about where we see the new convection developing on the east side of the image below.

Incidentally, is anyone else having a lot of trouble with WU loading ?. I am having to wait like a minute or more before the blog will come up.




yea
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Quoting Ameister12:
Korea round 3.


I thought the Western Pacific was inactive...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Yeah but I would use it. :)




you can ues the word RIP on the downcaster
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Quoting Tazmanian:



shut up would not be the word i ues thank you

Yeah but I would use it. :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It is. Notice the time-stamp...20100906 00:30Z.


No data for that area downloaded here
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Korea round 3.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Who doesn't? :)

Good point.
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Somebody this morning was posting a model of 90L going in around Corpus and going inland west of Houston... between San Antonio and Houston.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm guessing you want that to make the downcasters shut up?



shut up would not be the word i ues thank you
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm guessing you want that to make the downcasters shut up?
Who doesn't? :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Precisely.


09,

You are egging it on lol.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
so am rooting for 90L too get its turn at _RENUMBER_

I'm guessing you want that to make the downcasters shut up?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I don't think that is from this evening. Ascat ahs not downloaded that far West for tonight.
It is. Notice the time-stamp...20100906 00:30Z.
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Quoting tropicaltank:
NNE movement would result in LA perhaps?


perhaps more likely Central TX
unless it drifts way NE in witch case
i think shear will take care of it hopefully

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Quoting caneswatch:


I heard that too lol. Gonna be a lot of damage there.


To someone ...
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1306. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


too fast
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


why would you root for a system to develop unless it was not affecting land?


Cuz it's Taz.
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so am rooting for 90L too get its turn at _RENUMBER_
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Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT just caught Gaston..



I don't think that is from this evening. Ascat has not downloaded that far West for tonight.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


why would you root for a system to develop unless it was not affecting land?



90L has not had a turn yet with _RENUMBER_ 99L is the same way why all the other has had there turn
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Quoting kmanislander:
The center of Gaston is near 17.1 N and 52.5 W or just about where we see the new convection developing on the east side of the image below.

Incidentally, is anyone else having a lot of trouble with WU loading ?. I am having to wait like a minute or more before the blog will come up.



It has been very slow.
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90L could jump straight to TS and skip TD, pressure is low and not much increase in winds to get to 40mph
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Quoting tropicaltank:
NNE movement wouyld result in LA perhaps?


Very doubtful. It could put extreme southern Texas in play, but not LA.
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Quoting KYDan:
I am not a Caster of any kind, I just watch, try to understand, and see if I can figure out what is going to happen to these systems before it happens.

From what I see in this current loop, Gaston has it's work cut out for it to intensify much in the short term (24-48 hrs) and his road ahead of that is paved with potholes.

Link

jmho



Not sure I see the "pot holes" your reffering to.....looks to me like it's smooth sailing..unfortunately...
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am rooting for you 90L root root


why would you root for a system to develop unless it was not affecting land?
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Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT just caught Gaston..


Center directly over the convection. Looks good to me.
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am rooting for you 90L root root
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40mph Gaston should be back in the game shortly
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Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT just caught Gaston..



looks well organized to me
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H storm coming, if this thing screws around over the water too long, looks to be happening especially if its going NNE!
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NNE movement wouyld result in LA perhaps?
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1290. Vero1
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1289. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT just caught Gaston..

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The center of Gaston is near 17.1 N and 52.5 W or just about where we see the new convection developing on the east side of the image below.

Incidentally, is anyone else having a lot of trouble with WU loading ?. I am having to wait like a minute or more before the blog will come up.



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Quoting Stoopid1:
Current movement of 90L yields a heading of NNE, about 025 degrees. 90L should curve back to the north soon, but as stated this would give 90L more time to strengthen and would put areas farther north in Mexico in play.
Precisely.
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1285. Vero1
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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