Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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@48 hrs, still no Gaston... what the heck?



...but notice what's coming off Africa
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2834. Gearsts
Gaston looking better finally!
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Morning everyone.. Just wanted to point out an average season is 11/6/2.. And we're already at
9/3(possibly 4 soon)/2 And it's we haven't even reached the peak of the season yet. It's gonna be interesting the next few months.
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Quoting BaltOCane:
12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.



Models oscillate all over with Gaston, just as he does almost.

(On a side note - Ravens just got Houshmandzadeh.)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


FOCUS Oz


Lmao!

My two cents- when people ignore evac orders, most comments run along the lines of "Why, all they're doing is putting Search and Rescue lives in jeopardy" or "Darwinism in action."

And yet you have someone who intentionally walks into harm's way and most people on here are excusing it as acceptable behavior.

What's the difference?
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Can't wait until we actually have some real time current obs from the hurricane hunters. I remember back on October 18th, 2005 that night Hurricane Wilma rapidly intensified and could not wait until the next recon obs came in showing us how low Wilma could really end up going and it turned out it could have been more stronger then the 882mb pressure we got from the hurricane hunters given that there was a lull. I said that earlier today, but feel I need to repeat it given how historic she really was. I believe it was the evening of the 18th of October and Wilma became a category five that next morning early hours of course and going through that classic EWRC.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting Snowlover123:


Such a shame that Gaston has a closed COC, making this already inaccurate.


that's what I thought.
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Quoting Relix:
Seems like Gaston is making his final comeback before the Antilles.


Yep. Another day or so of doing the choo-choo-train thingy with his convection... and then... moisture!
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.
Well yes, but that isn't like two days. 12 hours is enough time to reach hurricane strength but not much more than that. Hermine still has to develop a tight core to become a hurricane, and may be on its way of doing so, but these things don't just happen. Systems don't really bomb until they have an eyewall, and this doesn't yet.
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Quoting BaltOCane:
12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.



Such a shame that Gaston has a closed COC, making this already inaccurate.
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2824. leo305
Quoting Snowlover123:


How pathetic. The only good thing about the Weather Channel, is to see the live reports. Those are cool. :)


they showed a live track in there map showing the hunters moving towards hermine
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2821. Levi32
Radar out of Brownsville shows that Hermine's core still lacks banded organization, which means this isn't close to a hurricane yet, but you can see the main feeder band wrapping into the center and this could start winding up in a hurry if it's given the time.

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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
TWC just that recon will be leaving "shortly" to recon Hermine..


How pathetic. The only good thing about the Weather Channel, is to see the live reports. Those are cool. :)
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Shortwave for Hermine just aquired obvious symetrical outflow and possibly the beginnings of an eye-wall.


She does look impressive on shortwave.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


FOCUS Oz
I hope he FOCUSes the way I think you mean it....LMAO!!
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ok, I just can't resist chiming in on Mr. Oz...Yeah, I'll watch his antics, and I also respect his right to do what he does. Cantore and others do it. What I have zero respect for, but what honestly gets me to watch is his sheer stupidity.

He chased a thunderstorm (94L)...Driving from NM almost to NO before turning around. His coverage of the OBX was very poor. For one, there was not daylight footage after the storm. He was drinking scotch the whole time he was at Hatteras which is just stupid. And now he's getting ready to drive from NM to Brownsville to cover a storm that even the NHC slower track says will be well inland by 7am tomorrow morning...And didn't someone say he was going to go live at 5am?

The sad thing is Oz has a good concept and people do want to see what happens when these storms make landfall. He is just about as clueless as it gets when it comes to "how" to do it. It is quite obvious that this is more about his ego than good journalism. And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.
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2815. Hhunter


wow..not good
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2814. Relix
Seems like Gaston is making his final comeback before the Antilles.
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2813. lhwhelk
Quoting dxdy:
If TS Hermine in testifies into a hurricane, what are the chances of it being drawn more northward towards Corpus Christi?
The hurricane watch is actually up the coast from Port Isabel. If the time weren't so short, I wouldn't rule Corpus out. We're getting occasional bands of rain in Lake Jackson, for which we are grateful.
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2811. leo305
The hunters are going into hermine as we speak.. they should be there in an hour or two
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I think Texas and Mexico are fortunate it won't be over water much longer, if it was it could develop to a major hurricane. Last night when i went to be we did not even have a depression


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!
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12z GFS starting...

still shows no Gaston at 24hrs, just an open wave.

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2806. Patrap
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TWC just that recon will be leaving "shortly" to recon Hermine..
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2804. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:
It's anmazing how many trolls have nothing better to do on a Holiday that to post crap in this blog.

My ignore button doesn't get holidays...if this keeps up I'll break 200 today.

Why would anyone in their right mind RIP a system in the MDR with a closed circulation and improving conditions...you guys prove your worthlessness by your statements!


plus 5000 and a Burger
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Quoting RecordSeason:
2788:

Right now the model support for Gaston is still very strong.

If it takes the southern end of the Spaghetti plots, it could make a serious run on Wilma's intensity record....and I'm not "doomcasting". That's what several of the models are trending towards.

With 12-18 hrs I fear Gaston will be in a real moist environment and he will ramp up fast..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all. It looks like Hermine is steadily strengthening and there is no reason she should stop. She's probably nearing a 50-knot system already.

Based on a deep convective band on visible satellite imagery, this is where the center looks to be, and it's starting to wrap tightly at the center:



Good morning Levi! I would place the center a tad more north and east, but looks good to me! ;)
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Quoting ozzyman236:
well floodman you ask weatherguy03 he has been dead on he knows what hes talking about something you know nothing about...am i correct floodman


FOCUS Oz
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.


Exactly, 12 hours ago she wasn't even a tropical storm.
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Hermine looks to become a hurricane soon, by the looks of it.
Look like a rainmaker.
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Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.


Not true.

Studies have shown that children often are not able to differentiate between a real person and their story and an fictional character and their story. To the child, they are both real.

Some people in this group see things differently than you and to attempt to CENSOR them is WRONG.


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Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, welcome to the 2010 ATL TC Season..and watch out for Gaston, he will be TROUBLE!!


The GFS ensembles predict in 24 hours that shear will drop to 3 kts. over Ex-Gaston, and that it will be moving into a moister environment. I agree that down the road, Gaston is definitely an item to watch, as well as those features coming off of Africa, in which the global models constantly develop Igor.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


60 knots is predicted to be at peak, or 70 mph, just 4 mph short of Hurricane prompting the NHC to put up Hurricane watches for Texas/Mexico. Hermine has a decent shot at hurricane status.
I think Texas and Mexico are fortunate it won't be over water much longer, if it was it could develop to a major hurricane. Last night when i went to be we did not even have a depression
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2792. Levi32
Good morning all. It looks like Hermine is steadily strengthening and there is no reason she should stop. She's probably a 50-knot system already.

Based on a deep convective band on visible satellite imagery, this is where the center looks to be, and it's starting to wrap tightly at the center:

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Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.

So was what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, did and countless others. If someone can't separate TV from their own reality/capabilities then they may just be up for the next Darwin award.
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Thanks recordseason, belizewunderfan, as of an hour ago it was near 17 N 56.5 W
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Couldn't agree more. Might be time for NHC to put out hurricane watches/warnings near brownsville, TX coastline.


Hurricane watches are already up
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It's anmazing how many trolls have nothing better to do on a Holiday that to post crap in this blog.

My ignore button doesn't get holidays...if this keeps up I'll break 200 today.

Why would anyone in their right mind RIP a system in the MDR with a closed circulation and improving conditions...you guys prove your worthlessness by your statements!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Would be nice if Recon heads back in to check Hermine if and when they fix the radar issues.
I will keep my ears open for ya. I can usually hear them when they take off. It is a totally different sound than when the other planes are leaving the base...
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
And latest raw estimates put it right at 4.0. Thankfully this thing doesn't have much time over water.


Has about 12 hours, plenty of time to intensify.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.