Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Wouldn't start trusting models on TD10 till 10AM tomm
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
1533. Asta
Evening All!
How goes the G.O.M?
lots of predators hunting up here and the ants are bulding up their nests, even without rain..
so are we gonna get some much needed rain in a few days??

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting is the CLP5 (Climatology) model which shows that systems in this position tend to move north or even northeast in this location at this time of year. The current initial motion is in good agreement with the CLP5, but the ridge won't allow that direction of movement for very long.



Hi Levi, where are you thinking TD 10 will go?
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Quoting Levi32:
Interesting is the CLP5 (Climatology) model which shows that systems in this position tend to move north or even northeast in this location at this time of year. The current initial motion is in good agreement with the CLP5, but the ridge won't allow that direction of movement for very long.



Levi....what ridge are you reffering to?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
Quoting Levi32:


Hey :)

What's your take on Ex-Gaston?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1527. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


It looks like Gaston is being blown across the Atlantic.
he is moving fast time to put the brakes on
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1526. Levi32
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hi Levi!


Hey :)
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1525. Levi32
Interesting is the CLP5 (Climatology) model which shows that systems in this position tend to move north or even northeast in this location at this time of year. The current initial motion is in good agreement with the CLP5, but the ridge won't allow that direction of movement for very long.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
If it goes NW yea, but if it goes NNW whole nutta ballgame


Any chance it could do that? Could the steering change to a more northerly direction?
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1523. xcool
CoopNTexas.POOR NAM MODEL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:
Well it appears the remnants of former TD 11E did indeed reform to the northeast over the Bay of Campeche and have organized into TD 10L. It's actually in a very nice little spot for development, but the key will be what angle of motion it takes over the next 24 hours which will determine how much time it has over the water. The NAM is the worst-case scenario bringing it up into south Texas.

Hi Levi!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting AllStar17:
EVERY Tropical Cyclone that has formed this season has affected land. Talk about a concerning trend.


Well, if Gaston never regenerates, than Gaston would be the first not to really affect land.

By the way, this TD 10 suprised me. Normally during a Cape Verde tropical cyclone outbreak, all the tropical waves develop into tropical cyclones, and you get a "tropical wave drought" in the E-Pac and Gulf of Mexico as these tropical cyclones tend to turn northward before reaching those areas.

For example, there hasn't been a single tropical wave in the E-Pac for a while now as the last few tropical waves in a row developed (Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston), each of those systems so far staying away from the Caribbean and Gulf (we'll see what ex-Gaston does). And yet, 11-E developed in the E-Pac. Seems to me 11-E developed in the ITCZ, not sure what caused the thundrstorm blow-up on September 2 that lead to 11-E. Then 11-E sneaks up a northward turn across SE Mexico, and ends up in the Bay of Campeche as TD 10.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


image centred at 17n/55.5w


It looks like Gaston is being blown across the Atlantic.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Which models days ago was predicting this storm to form in the BOC?
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
If it goes NW yea, but if it goes NNW whole nutta ballgame
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
0z NAM has TD 10 right around Corpus, but weaker system than 18z.
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1514. Levi32
Well it appears the remnants of former TD 11E did indeed reform to the northeast over the Bay of Campeche and have organized into TD 10L. It's actually in a very nice little spot for development, but the key will be what angle of motion it takes over the next 24 hours which will determine how much time it has over the water. The NAM is the worst-case scenario bringing it up into south Texas.
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Quoting will40:


shouldnt be much of a cone

I know but I love those maps. O_o
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1512. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


image centred at 17n/55.5w
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


lmao BAMM suite only gives it 24 hours, sorry that is not likely to me

more like 48-72
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Hurricanes101:


not 90L anymore


Depression now?
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1508. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting kmanislander:

I use Lime for internet... I wonder if the problem might be with the circuits here in the Islands....
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Hi All.....just checking back in on 90L....looking better I see.


not 90L anymore
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Hi All.....just checking back in on 90L....looking better I see.
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Quoting StormW:
Hey Drak...kman!


Hi Storm.

I can hardly post tonight. Load speed for me and many others unbelievably slow.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1502. will40
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I wanna see TD10's cone when it comes out in half an hour.


shouldnt be much of a cone
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Convection around TD10 is a mess, never could see the low levels today with so much high clouds blowing over, I dont think anybody including the NHC have a clue where the actual center is.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
1499. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Normally I would say that the NHC would wait until later than that given the way Gaston has been a yoyo system BUT he is so close to the Islands that they may upgrade sooner than later so that watches and warnings can be posted. It is almost impossible to refresh the blog so I don't know how long I will stay on tonight. Too frustrating and with TD 10 out now the blog will be very busy with traffic which only makes the load speed worse.

First, the convection must build and hold.



Are you using Dail-up? lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
1498. xcool
YEP WE HAVE TD10 YAY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:

td 10 maybe hermine instead


yes. My fault I meant Igor. Thanks for pointing that out.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Quoting kmanislander:


Normally I would say that the NHC would wait until later than that given the way Gaston has been a yoyo system BUT he is so close to the Islands that they may upgrade sooner than later so that watches and warnings can be posted. It is almost impossible to refresh the blog so I don't know how long I will stay on tonight. Too frustrating and with TD 10 out now the blog will be very busy with traffic which only makes the load speed worse.

First, the convection must build and hold.

Seems to be really making an extra effort tonight because these past few nights by this time convection was almost completely gone. Holding on much better all day today.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1494. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earl? lol
its what the navy shows i guess he is still out there somewhere

lol
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


But you must remember this season is dead. shhhhh.

Also I'd look for Hermine late this week in the E ATL. Atlantic. Not Atlanta. =)
Well, with the way it;s going so far this year, Herminie might make it to Atlanta
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD10 is the 5th tropical cyclone to form in two weeks.


Man, Atlantic tropical cyclone outbreak continues...
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


In Bay of Campeche?

Yes!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting xcool:
HurricaneSwirl i think going much far N


Maybe if it keeps up that NNE motion. But I think mid Tamaulipas is my best bet right now.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What do you think ? TD by 7 am?


Normally I would say that the NHC would wait until later than that given the way Gaston has been a yoyo system BUT he is so close to the Islands that they may upgrade sooner than later so that watches and warnings can be posted. It is almost impossible to refresh the blog so I don't know how long I will stay on tonight. Too frustrating and with TD 10 out now the blog will be very busy with traffic which only makes the load speed worse.

First, the convection must build and hold.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1485. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey Drak!


Hello!
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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