Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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NHC takes it to a 50mph TS.

000
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.


FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


Exactly the cone I would give it
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1582. Levi32
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Levi, I thought what was happening is that a typical mid-latitude ridge was building over the central US in the wake of the major trough that curved Earl into Canada. I see such a ridge in that CIMSS map you posted, around central Tennessee, and that's the ridge turning TD 10 northwest, right?


I don't believe I said anything different. Yes it's the high pressure strengthening as the upper trough leaves.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, lol. Look at him, just sitting there ready to explode into something big.



XD, I knew it! I've been saying for a while, Igor sounds like a name worthy of something monstrous!!

JK (Just Kidding). We'll have to wait and see. After all, 99L just struggled near the Cape Verde Islands to develop. We'll see what this wave behind 99L does.
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
000
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1578. Asta
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TD 10 predicted to peak as a 50 mph TS.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Why isn't that wave a 10% spinner?
No idea. I was thinking that they were going to mention it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1574. Levi32
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What's your take on Ex-Gaston?


Iffy on whether it will redevelop into anything big. Dry air and easterly shear are inhibiting it at the moment but it's a fighter and it still has potential since it's getting farther west which is generally more favorable. I don't think rapid strengthening is likely any time soon though. The track is right towards the northern Caribbean islands for now.
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Be back later
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
000
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I was really hoping Igor would be a 40mph TS just because that's the opposite everyone has been expecting of it, but that's not looking likely as of now..

I was hoping the same thing!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


This one building in from the east:



Levi, I thought what was happening is that a typical mid-latitude ridge was building over the central US in the wake of the major trough that curved Earl into Canada. I see such a ridge in that CIMSS map you posted, around central Tennessee, and that's the ridge turning TD 10 northwest, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00z SHIPS takes 10L to a 45mph TS before moving inland in 30-36 hours or so. I currently agree with that intensity scheme.

V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, lol. Look at him, just sitting there ready to explode into something big.



I was really hoping Igor would be a 40mph TS just because that's the opposite everyone has been expecting of it, but that's not looking likely as of now..
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1567. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Levi, where are you thinking TD 10 will go?


At the moment the models seem to have a good handle on it, and it should go into Mexico near 24N, but I do see the possibility of it sneaking up to 25N, and that could mean a big rain event for south Texas if it moves that far north.

As far as intensity, that will depend mostly on how long it stays over water. If it's only 24 hours, it won't be a huge deal, but if it's more like 48 hours then there is the worry that this could wind up into a Cat 1 hurricane in a hurry.
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They just had to replace Ivan with another evil Russian sounding name. To boot a 'I' storm.

Ida, Ike, Ivan, Isabel, Isidore, ect.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup, lol. Look at him, just sitting there ready to explode into something big.


Why isn't that wave a 10% spinner?
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Levi....question....Why would the clp5 be the only one who shows that kind of track....especially if that ridge is supposed to build in...does it not take that ridge into consideration?
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
Quoting kmanislander:


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Ok thanks.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
If Gaston does indeed survive the dry air and makes it into the Caribbean, there is alot of moisture to feed off of...

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Quoting PcolaDan:


No, not me, you guys. Florida here. Thought maybe someone put the lime in the coconut. :)


Quoted you in error and deleted the post. Sorry
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1560. Asta
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Quoting StormW:


In between the right track that just takes it to TX, and the next track over to the left.


Storm thats middle TX coast...
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting kmanislander:


Try rebooting your modem. I also use LIME ( used to Cable and Wireless ). Rebooting worked.


No, not me, you guys. Florida here. Thought maybe someone put the lime in the coconut. :)
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
You know what if TD10 becomes Hermine (which it most likely will), then that means this beast right here on the right is you know... Igor!

Yup, lol. Look at him, just sitting there ready to explode into something big.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1556. Asta
Water Vapor

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I use Lime too.


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Could someone kindly post the link for the cyclone formation alert site? I had it at one time but I can't find it. Thanks in advance.
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Just updated:

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Did ex TD 11-E help spin it up? Then we could call it the Campeche Crossover ;)


That's exactly what happened.

Don't recall there's ever been a occurrence where a storm in the EPAC caused the formation of a system in the BOC. At least in the last 5 years I've tracked them on here.
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<
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting will40:


shouldnt be much of a cone


LOL, I keep obssessively refreshing the NHC webpage to see the first advisory on TD 10 pop up! Without you guys, I wouldn't have yet known that TD 10 has formed!
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1546. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh Windsat of TD-10
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You know what if TD10 becomes Hermine (which it most likely will), then that means this beast right here on the right is you know... Igor!

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Quoting Levi32:


This one building in from the east:



Thanks....I see it now!!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1542. Asta
I woke up at 5:00am and it was just under 60'F this morning... hard to believe it was so cool and not so humid- don't think it will last very long...
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Just rebooted my modem and really fast now.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Quoting kmanislander:

I use Lime for internet... I wonder if the problem might be with the circuits here in the Islands....


Was about to say that. Noticed almost all the people having problems seem to be in the Islands.
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1539. Levi32
Quoting NOSinger:


Levi....what ridge are you reffering to?


This one building in from the east:

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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Quoting kmanislander:

I use Lime for internet... I wonder if the problem might be with the circuits here in the Islands....
I use Lime too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting StormW:


Agreed...in fact, the steering layers forecast maps from PSU indicate steering would coincide right down the middle of that package


So, are you thinking more of TX then? I'm getting confused.
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
0z NAM has TD 10 right around Corpus, but weaker system than 18z.


Yuck, this is going to "surprise ruin" some folk's Labor Day holiday weekend closure with rainfall spreading into Texas and NE Mexico. I think after Earl went away, most people (the folks that don't blog on WU) though the tropics were silent.
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Wouldn't start trusting models on TD10 till 10AM tomm
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686

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