Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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1635. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


can you link me to that site

the one I have does says the veracruz radar is down


The URL of that image is the site lol. You have to glitch it and manipulate a radar url because their main site doesn't have the link up, which is typical for a station that is offline, but this one obviously isn't.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TcuFrogs:
I've heard the ants and other bugs building nest before TS or Hurricanes, but has anybody ever heard of Wasp indicating the weather. I know this is stupid but I was at my son's baseball game (Missouri City, TX) and I have never seen the number of wasp as I had seen as I did today. Im not talking about a couple maybe like a couple hundred in the whole complex. Amazing.


Good thing I wasn't there.

I would have screamed and ran away.
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1633. BDADUDE
Quoting NOSinger:


My friend I have no problem at all "learning"...which is why I don't make a fool out of myself making absurd forecasts...as in your case...lol
My friend I am not the one wearing an incredible hulk suit!!
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1632. xcool
btwntx08 YOU DOOM NOW bettering going getting food
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I've heard the ants and other bugs building nest before TS or Hurricanes, but has anybody ever heard of Wasp indicating the weather. I know this is stupid but I was at my son's baseball game (Missouri City, TX) and I have never seen the number of wasp as I had seen as I did today. Im not talking about a couple maybe like a couple hundred in the whole complex. Amazing.
Member Since: August 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 56
Quoting Levi32:
Center of TD 10 is very well-defined on Mexico radar:



can you link me to that site

the one I have does says the veracruz radar is down
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting BDADUDE:
Im glad you are beginning the learning process.


My friend I have no problem at all "learning"...which is why I don't make a fool out of myself making absurd forecasts...as in your case...lol
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Honestly I thought Gaston would get TD status back before 90L did, TD10 developed much quicker than I expected


Yep, this whole 90L/TD 10 thing seemed to come out of nowhere for me too. But I think that's because I wasn't watching what was happening in the E-Pac closely while getting carried away by the Cape Verde choo-choo train. After digging in the advisory archives, the final advisory on 11-E said this on September 3:

SEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW
DEVELOPMENT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1624. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi that kind of happened with Hurricane Ginny in October 1963. The storm deepened explosively in the Gulf of Maine as it underwent extratopical transition, and thew back moisture into cold air on the west side of the storm, and Aroostock County ME had 6 to 18 inches of snow on October 30, 1963.


Wow that's cool. It would be more awesome if the storm was coming out of the Caribbean or GOM though lol. A storm like Ida, for instance, but with much colder air. The airmass north of the front during Ida was actually warmer than normal for that time of year.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Yep. It worked. Thanks again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT45 KNHC 060251
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING
DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING. CURVED BANDS ARE
READILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC
WINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL
BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT
WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE
ITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE
LEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 20.7N 95.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Crazy awesome lightning show here in downtown Miami.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1616. BDADUDE
Quoting NOSinger:


Thanks alot...learning..lol
Im glad you are beginning the learning process.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2009 didn't get TD10 until October 6. 2009 didn't get TD 11 until November 4. That was the last tropical cyclone of that season, and it was pretty much normal for the 1950-2009 mean. So much for a bust season this year lol.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Yep. It worked. Thanks again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
WELL DONE STORMW!!! (track/cone)
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1611. Levi32
Center of TD 10 is very well-defined on Mexico radar:

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Quoting Levi32:


Because the CLP5 is not a model. It's a projection based on climatology, in other words, it represents what a storm will typically do on average in that location at this time of year, based on history.


Thanks alot...learning..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1609. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0217 UTC MON SEP 6 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN (AL102010) 20100906 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100906 0000 100906 1200 100907 0000 100907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.4N 95.1W 21.7N 96.1W 23.3N 97.3W 24.8N 98.8W
BAMD 20.4N 95.1W 21.1N 96.0W 22.1N 97.2W 23.1N 98.4W
BAMM 20.4N 95.1W 21.4N 96.0W 22.7N 97.1W 24.1N 98.3W
LBAR 20.4N 95.1W 21.2N 95.7W 22.9N 96.9W 24.8N 98.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100908 0000 100909 0000 100910 0000 100911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.3N 100.4W 29.4N 103.3W 34.0N 103.2W 38.7N 98.1W
BAMD 24.2N 99.8W 26.5N 102.1W 30.0N 102.1W 34.7N 96.8W
BAMM 25.5N 99.7W 28.6N 102.0W 33.1N 101.3W 38.9N 94.6W
LBAR 27.1N 99.4W 32.2N 99.1W 36.4N 93.7W 37.5N 85.5W
SHIP 52KTS 65KTS 64KTS 54KTS
DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.4N LONCUR = 95.1W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.5N LONM12 = 95.7W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 18.9N LONM24 = 95.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I don't believe I said anything different. Yes it's the high pressure strengthening as the upper trough leaves.


Gotcha ;), I thought you were saying that. Just wanted to make sure I understood what you were saying.

Quoting kmanislander:

Kman, that image you posted, Gaston looks like its saying "TD 10? Me too, me too! Don't forget me!"
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Honestly I thought Gaston would get TD status back before 90L did, TD10 developed much quicker than I expected
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1606. hcubed
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I go to watch the original star wars for 5 minutes and a TD is declared, go figure.


The force was strong with that one...
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Good Night! See you all by 8 AM Tomorrow!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
000
WTNT35 KNHC 060248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...



SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1602. Levi32
Quoting NOSinger:
Levi....question....Why would the clp5 be the only one who shows that kind of track....especially if that ridge is supposed to build in...does it not take that ridge into consideration?


Because the CLP5 is not a model. It's a projection based on climatology, in other words, it represents what a storm will typically do on average in that location at this time of year, based on history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well not gonna be long and we'll see the arguing on whether it goes north into S TX, like when Brent was out there in 99.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
1600. Asta
Quoting NOSinger:
Levi....question....Why would the clp5 be the only one who shows that kind of track....especially if that ridge is supposed to build in...does it not take that ridge into consideration?

Call me crazy- But-I'd be more concerned about it following that front line NE
BTW
Love the Cheeweez. Great pict.

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Quoting kmanislander:


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Yep. It worked. Thanks again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1598. xcool
lets seeing if CAN GETTING NAME.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1597. Levi32
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
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Levi....#1564
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Quoting kmanislander:


Lookin better
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1594. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wish it would follow the frontal trough NE as a weak tropical storm to the Big Bend, and cross over and give me a foot of rain. Won't happen though.


I want to see that happen in mid-late October when something really tropical and soaked with moisture develops in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and rides a front northeastward with a massive cold airmass on its northern side. Imagine what that would look like....I would only hope for a rain event but the kind of storm you could see with rapid extratropical transition from a hurricane along the gulf coast with a frigid airmass to the north would be epic.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yep. It worked. Thanks again.


Good old LIME LOL.

Will be back later.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Dangit CyberTeddy! Lol.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Night All!

I see we have Tropical Depression 10...How much time it spends over water is vital to how strong it gets. This will likely rival Colin's intensity in my opinion, if it can stay over water for about 36 hours or more.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Turn your modem off for 10 seconds then turn it on again. Fixed the problem for me.
Yep. It worked. Thanks again.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
NHC takes it to a 50mph TS.

000
WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.


FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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