Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Good night all.
Have a great week!!!
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1683. Levi32
I mean just imagine a year like this, with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and a warm summer for the southeast United States, and then October/November hits and you get a freak arctic outbreak in the southeast bringing a frigid airmass into the north gulf coast states. Then imagine a tropical storm or hurricane coming north out of the western Caribbean towards that airmass but over warmer than normal water. The kind of baroclinicity and barotropic instability that would cause simultaneously would be amazing, and dangerous.
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Quoting capesanblas:
.

It's Doom in the GOM


Evening Orca - actually clicked over to your blog for the first time today -


Great humor Mate


Enjoyed, really did....


Thank you, we try and keep it light hearted and clean fun :)
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Last year there was an "H" storm named "Hymen" or "Hymena" or something like that...


Henri :)
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1680. dmaddox
Quoting RitaEvac:
damn TS watch all the way up to Corpus.
there isn't a tropical storm watch. just a TS warning up to nearly brownsville
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Special Blog Update

Special Late Night Update: Tropical Depression #10 forms
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting kimoskee:


I'm now convinced that Gaston is a female teenager. Tempermental and can't make up her mind what she's doing.
-I'm getting stronger, no I'm getting weaker
I'm going west, no I'm bobbing up and down, Please somebody put it out of its misery!!!


haha..... :)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Assuming your talking about Gaston.... its about middle from where it has been... anywhere from Florida to over Pottery's house.


I'm now convinced that Gaston is a female teenager. Tempermental and can't make up her mind what she's doing.
-I'm getting stronger, no I'm getting weaker
I'm going west, no I'm bobbing up and down, Please somebody put it out of its misery!!!
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.

It's Doom in the GOM


Evening Orca - actually clicked over to your blog for the first time today -


Great humor Mate


Enjoyed, really did....
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Last year there was an "H" storm named "Hymen" or "Hymena" or something like that...


O_O

wat
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Be on the look out for center relocations on these type of systems that are weak,
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting RecordSeason:
1655::


WHAT!?!?

THAT'S ALMOST DUE EAST!

Are you sure?


That movement shouldn't last too much longer with that frontal boundary weakening.
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damn TS watch all the way up to Corpus.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to our local Meteorologist, Hermine is pronounced HER-MEAN.


There is an alternate pronunciation as well, where the "H" is silent. So, "ER-MEAN".
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Quoting NOSinger:


Orca...that sure is a shift south...huh??


Assuming your talking about Gaston.... its about middle from where it has been... anywhere from Florida to over Pottery's house.
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TD10 is, unfortunately, already a killer; rain connected to the disturbance which contributed to TD10 killed three dozen in Guatemala today, with an estimated 60-65 more still unaccounted for:

Heavy rains, landslides kill at least 37 in Guatemala

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Quoting NOSinger:


Orca...that sure is a shift south...huh??


I see that. It seems like it could be a Central American problem if it goes that far South. The high seems really strong to the North and it is far enough away from the weakness that far South if it remains weak of course.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to our local Meteorologist, Hermine is pronounced HER-MEAN.


Gasp!!!!
sounds like someone we know :)
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Quoting Cantu5977:
The track for TD10 is right of the RGV watershed that is the worst possible track for us.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to our local Meteorologist, Hermine is pronounced HER-MEAN.


It's probably more like er-mean. The H is always silent with French names.
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1660. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here ya' go:



Thanks, too bad the pic wasn't later on when the cold air was getting involved.
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Quoting aspectre:
TropicalDepression10's heading had turned northward to 9.6degrees east of EastNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.7degrees north of NorthEast
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~8mph(~12.9km/h)

Copy and paste 18.4n95.8w, 18.6n95.7w, 18.9n95.7w, 19.1n95.7w, 19.2n95.6w-19.4n95.6w, 19.4n95.6w-19.9n95.9w, 19.9n95.9w-20.4n95.4w, 20.4n95.4w-20.7n95.2w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21*hours.

* The interval between the last 2 positions spans 3hours.
The intervals between positions previous to the last two span 6hours.


Why don't you just say on a course of 272 or 335, instead of the mathematical equations?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Orca...that sure is a shift south...huh??
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1657. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Hurricane Noel dumped snow as well in 2007


Ya this was pretty cool....but far less than what could happen farther south in an extreme event, which is something that I'd love to see if it's not life-threatening, though in reality it probably would be.

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According to our local Meteorologist, Hermine is pronounced HER-MEAN.
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TropicalDepression10's heading had turned northward to 9.6degrees east of NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.7degrees north of NorthEast
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~8mph(~12.9km/h)

Copy and paste 18.4n95.8w, 18.6n95.7w, 18.9n95.7w, 19.1n95.7w, 19.2n95.6w-19.4n95.6w, 19.4n95.6w-19.9n95.9w, 19.9n95.9w-20.4n95.4w, 20.4n95.4w-20.7n95.2w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21*hours.

* The line segment between the last two positions spans 3hours.
The line segments between 2 positions previous to the last two individually span 6hours.
The intervals between unconnected points individually span 6hours.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Levi32:


That's interesting....

I want to see the satellite pic they mention from TIROS VII, really bad. Can you find that from the same webpage that you got the article from?
Here ya' go:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I guess the Atlantic couldn't last a day without a cyclone We'll see if we have Hermine and Gaston tomorrow
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1651. Levi32
Quoting Grecojdw:


When do you think the arrival of the MJO into the Caribbean will be. We have been lucky so far that Caribbean storms haven't form. All the thunderstorms seem to fizzle currently before even forming a low.


The Caribbean is getting there, and I fear you will have your day before this season is over.

You can see it turning green now, but the Caribbean lighting up will have more to do with the large-scale pattern over North America than it will the MJO itself. We haven't even needed the MJO during this current burst of storms.

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Quoting Levi32:


That's interesting....

I want to see the satellite pic they mention from TIROS VII, really bad. Can you find that from the same webpage that you got the article from?

Aw and then I notice their date was the 22nd, long before the cold air arrived, but oh well.


Hurricane Noel dumped snow as well in 2007
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874


Link
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double post
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Quoting Levi32:


Actually nevermind, it does work on this one.


When do you think the arrival of the MJO into the Caribbean will be. We have been lucky so far that Caribbean storms haven't form. All the thunderstorms seem to fizzle currently before even forming a low.
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The track for TD10 is right of the RGV watershed that is the worst possible track for us.
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1645. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Ginny's final track:



The final recon worksheet:



Three hikers caught in the snow on Mount Kathadin were never found. Freezing to death in a hurricane from a blizzard on the west side is not a common way to go.



That's interesting....

I want to see the satellite pic they mention from TIROS VII, really bad. Can you find that from the same webpage that you got the article from?

Aw and then I notice their date was the 22nd, long before the cold air arrived, but oh well.
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TS Malou approaching Cheju.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good thing I wasn't there.

I would have screamed and ran away.


Wife who is allergic watched from the press box. Actually cool for Houston today
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Hey guys, just realized this,

TD 10 is the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic to develop from the remnants of an E-Pac system (11-E) since Arthur developed from the remnants of E-Pac Alma in 2008.

But, thats two Atlantic tropical cyclones developing from E-pac remnants in the past two years. I thought such an event is supposed to be really rare. Right?
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Quoting Levi32:


The URL of that image is the site lol. You have to glitch it and manipulate a radar url because their main site doesn't have the link up, which is typical for a station that is offline, but this one obviously isn't.


oh ok
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1639. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


The URL of that image is the site lol. You have to glitch it and manipulate a radar url because their main site doesn't have the link up, which is typical for a station that is offline, but this one obviously isn't.


Actually nevermind, it does work on this one.
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1638. xcool
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Quoting BDADUDE:
My friend I am not the one wearing an incredible hulk suit!!


You probably should be....lol...BTW...it's body paint...lol
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
1635. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


can you link me to that site

the one I have does says the veracruz radar is down


The URL of that image is the site lol. You have to glitch it and manipulate a radar url because their main site doesn't have the link up, which is typical for a station that is offline, but this one obviously isn't.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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