Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1735 - 1685

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

It looked like a shading color up to Corpus

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


O_O

wat


I think RecordSeason is remembering Jimena, which is an eastern Pacific name with that pronounciation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1732. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ohhhh, that's pretty insane, but something I would love to witness. Like you said, without hurting anyone.


Unfortunately in weather, it's very difficult to have your cake and eat it too. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1730. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jlp09550:
Oh look, a new tropical depression.



Where exactly is the COC in that blob?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Houstonia:


Hou/Galv calling for 50% chance of rain tomorrow, 70% chance Tuesday, 50% Wednesday and 40% Thursday.

http://www.wunderground.com /cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77036


Yeah, you guys will probably get some rain, but I was referring specifically to sizable rainfall totals. That is, significant accumulations capable of producing localized flooding and whatnot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 850Realtor:


Levi or Storm-if you have a minute, could you give an example of what might occur in that situation?


Read ...#1714
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 232
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ohhhh, that's pretty insane, but something I would love to witness. Like you said, without hurting anyone.


Unfortunately in weather, it's very difficult to have your cake and eat it too. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It depends on the size of the system, but I highly doubt it. Ridge will probably be too far west to allow any appreciable influx of moisture into the area, and the storm shouldn't get big enough to produce sizable rainfall totals there without the assistance of a secondary weather system.


Hou/Galv calling for 50% chance of rain tomorrow, 70% chance Tuesday, 50% Wednesday and 40% Thursday.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=77036
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1724. Hhunter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I think so, but shouldn't last long.

Yea lets hope it dont
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I mean just imagine a year like this, with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and a warm summer for the southeast United States, and then October/November hits and you get a freak arctic outbreak in the southeast bringing a frigid airmass into the north gulf coast states. Then imagine a tropical storm or hurricane coming north out of the western Caribbean towards that airmass but over warmer than normal water. The kind of baroclinicity and barotropic instability that would cause simultaneously would be amazing, and dangerous.


Levi or Storm-if you have a minute, could you give an example of what might occur in that situation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


The snow would depend on the situation, but rain would be massively heavy and wide-spread, and so would the winds. It would basically be a hybrid storm, which we are familiar with, but on a much more potent scale, being enhanced both tropically and baroclinically at the same time, a hurricane undergoing very rapid extratropical transition over waters that are still warm enough to support a tropical storm.
Ohhhh, that's pretty insane, but something I would love to witness. Like you said, without hurting anyone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1655 aspectre
"TropicalDepression10's heading had turned northward to 9.6degrees east of NorthNorthEast
from its previous heading of 1.7degrees north of NorthEast
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~8mph(~12.9km/h)
Copy and paste 18.4n95.8w, 18.6n95.7w, 18.9n95.7w, 19.1n95.7w, 19.2n95.6w-19.4n95.6w, 19.4n95.6w-19.9n95.9w, 19.9n95.9w-20.4n95.4w, 20.4n95.4w-20.7n95.2w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 21*hours.
* The line segment between the last two positions spans 3hours.
The line segments between 2 positions previous to the last two individually span 6hours.
The intervals between unconnected points individually span 6hours."

1659 Orcasystems "Why don't you just say on a course of 272 or 335, instead of the mathematical equations?

Because giving the headings that way would be primarily of use to those of mathematical and/or nautical bent. Whereas most people have an almost instinctive feeling for the compass points:
N , NNE, NE , ENE , E, ESE, SE , SSE , S , SSW , SW , WSW , W, WNW, NW , NNW, N

Frankly mathematicians and navigators can easily figure out the headings on their own, hence
I post for those who find no such ease in converting degrees into compass points.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In less than 20 minutes, we've already had over 200 comments...Imagine a Category 5 headed towards NOLA, and another one headed for NYC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
0z gfs

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txsweetpea:

Did someone say on the blog earlier TD10 is moving east right now for a short distance.


I think so, but shouldn't last long.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rl Gaston has kept his convection for over seven hours now, only 5 more hours to go and he will meet the criteria to be able to classified as a TD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1714. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So I wonder...how would it make it the perfect storm? Crazy winds, rain, snow, etc?


The snow would depend on the situation, but rain would be massively heavy and wide-spread, and so would the winds. It would basically be a hybrid storm, which we are familiar with, but on a much more potent scale, being enhanced both tropically and baroclinically at the same time, a hurricane undergoing very rapid extratropical transition over waters that are still warm enough to support a tropical storm. The result would be something worse than the 1993 super-storm when it was in the northeast GOM, and that was one of the worst gulf storms we know of, and it had no tropical connections to its development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh look, a new tropical depression.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
If TD10 makes landfall say MX/TX border, would we get any big amounts of rain or anything here in SE TX?

Did someone say on the blog earlier TD10 is moving east right now for a short distance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
If TD10 makes landfall say MX/TX border, would we get any big amounts of rain or anything here in SE TX?


It depends on the size of the system, but I highly doubt it. Ridge will probably be too far west to allow any appreciable influx of moisture into the area, and the storm shouldn't get big enough to produce sizable rainfall totals there without the assistance of a secondary weather system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Henri :)


That's my Great Uncles name in Quebec...pronounced On-Ree.:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
If TD10 makes landfall say MX/TX border, would we get any big amounts of rain or anything here in SE TX?


No. You would get some heavy rain, but nothing major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If TD10 makes landfall say MX/TX border, would we get any big amounts of rain or anything here in SE TX?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night StormW


remember what I said earlier? Well we didn't even go a day without something classified lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting blsealevel:


i would get ready if i lived between Mex/Central TX depending how far East this drifts at the least a bunch of flooding rains

Link

NWS offices here are definitely watching things, with several offices warning of local maximums of up to 10 inches.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1700. BDAwx
you mean Hurricane Jimena in the East Pacific pronounced Hee-men-ah?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I mean just imagine a year like this, with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and a warm summer for the southeast United States, and then October/November hits and you get a freak arctic outbreak in the southeast bringing a frigid airmass into the north gulf coast states. Then imagine a tropical storm or hurricane coming north out of the western Caribbean towards that airmass but over warmer than normal water. The kind of baroclinicity and barotropic instability that would cause simultaneously would be amazing, and dangerous.

Unfortunately, some of the most amazing things in Meteorology is dangerous. Awesome to the max, but often quite dangerous. I know exactly what you mean though. As an avid fan of meteorology, it is something that you would long to see and observe, but as a person is something that you would not want to wish upon others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Exactly, it's essentially another version of the "perfect storm" that has yet to occur in recorded history, but it is feasible that it could happen someday.
So I wonder...how would it make it the perfect storm? Crazy winds, rain, snow, etc?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1697. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
See all of you in the a.m.


Night Storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
I mean just imagine a year like this, with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and a warm summer for the southeast United States, and then October/November hits and you get a freak arctic outbreak in the southeast bringing a frigid airmass into the north gulf coast states. Then imagine a tropical storm or hurricane coming north out of the western Caribbean towards that airmass but over warmer than normal water. The kind of baroclinicity and barotropic instability that would cause simultaneously would be amazing, and dangerous.





As I said last week.



Levi is the approaching "DARTH WEATHER"



enjoy reading your post too Levi....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Exactly, it's essentially another version of the "perfect storm" that has yet to occur in recorded history, but it is feasible that it could happen someday.
That would certainly be crazy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1690. Levi32
Quoting pilotguy1:


Idle minds are the workshop of the devil.


Aren't you glad I don't control the weather? =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1689. Ryuujin
Quoting Levi32:
I mean just imagine a year like this, with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico and a warm summer for the southeast United States, and then October/November hits and you get a freak arctic outbreak in the southeast bringing a frigid airmass into the north gulf coast states. Then imagine a tropical storm or hurricane coming north out of the western Caribbean towards that airmass but over warmer than normal water. The kind of baroclinicity and barotropic instability that would cause simultaneously would be amazing, and dangerous.


So you'd have a giant windpowered snow machine?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1688. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...worse than the "Perfect Storm"


Exactly, it's essentially another version of the "perfect storm" that has yet to occur in recorded history, but it is feasible that it could happen someday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
damn TS watch all the way up to Corpus.


i would get ready if i lived between Mex/Central TX depending how far East this drifts at the least a bunch of flooding rains

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1735 - 1685

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
35 °F
Overcast