Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Is there any chance the east coast could be in play again?


Good question...I wish I knew the answer..



You have a large formation of systems coming across Africa, some of them are going to form.. even the one just leaving Africa right now



History tells us that the systems that hit the east coast are CV style storms (I believe that statement is correct)

ergo: Yes
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1834. centex
Gaston is trying to break record for length of regeneration period.
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Quoting JLPR2:
New image just came in from Eumetsat and it looks like Gaston is firing away, but it's too far away to have a clear idea of just how much it has fired away. LOL!



Huzzah! A closeup!


I see a nice convective cluster over and just south of ex-Gaston's center. Then I keep seeing Gaston forming a long arm stretching to the northwest, like Gaston is waving at us (me waving back, "Hey Gaston").
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Quoting xcool:

That's very interesting. I see some fairly good structure in there.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes... and the usual arguments about where its going... Florida or Texas, its actually hilarious to watch if your not in one of the two areas.


Is there any chance the east coast could be in play again?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes... and the usual arguments about where its going... Florida or Texas, its actually hilarious to watch if your not in one of the two areas.


Haha...well I am on the middle Texas Coast and I will not be forecasting, wishcasting, or any other casting if one is coming. I just get on here to read everyone's opinions and am trying to learn. Thanks for the response.
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Quoting centex:
Right and the evacuation was a fiasco. Cars were not able to get out because of traffic and running out of gas. Why I will never forget seeing them evade central Texas and cleaning out the stores and filling up our schools. Man, there are a lot of you guys, 4th largest city.


That was 5 yrs ago, we've swelled even more since then. Could it be worse next time....you betcha
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Quoting Skyepony:
Finally..the ASCAT pass of 10L. It's sloppy kids but waybetter than the windsat pass 4 hrs ago.


Sloppy? I think it looks great, can see the center in that pass. Phew, pheeewwww. Maybe Hermine will turn out to be a looker (Just kidding).
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1826. JLPR2
New image just came in from Eumetsat and it looks like Gaston is firing away, but it's too far away to have a clear idea of just how much it has fired away. LOL!



Huzzah! A closeup!
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Orca, when you say Florexans, does that mean you think Texas and Florida will be in play a little more in the weeks to come?


Yes... and the usual arguments about where its going... Florida or Texas, its actually hilarious to watch if your not in one of the two areas.
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1824. centex
Quoting RitaEvac:


Houston didnt care, 175mph spooked everybody
Right and the evacuation was a fiasco. Cars were not able to get out because of traffic and running out of gas. Why I will never forget seeing them evade central Texas and cleaning out the stores and filling up our schools. Man, there are a lot of you guys, 4th largest city.
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1823. JLPR2
The best I got is Eumetsat and even that is an hour old T_T.

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Looking at IR imagery, it appears that Gaston is trying to wrap convection around its center.

Can somebody tell me where my thinking is flawed?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I think in this next version of Busy, we will hear a lot more from the Florexans.

Orca, when you say Florexans, does that mean you think Texas and Florida will be in play a little more in the weeks to come?
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1820. Skyepony (Mod)
Finally..the ASCAT pass of 10L. It's sloppy kids but waybetter than the windsat pass 4 hrs ago.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


GOING to get busy? :)

Its already been busy, we've had 5 tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic in the past two weeks (Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, TD 10, ha ha catching my breath), I can hardly keep up anymore XD


I think in this next version of Busy, we will hear a lot more from the Florexans.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'm all cranky now. LOL

The last image of Ex-Gaston is from 3:45z and it's almost 5z. :\


Isn't that normal? Haven't paid attention to how frequently those images refresh. Mine's also at 3:45Z too if that makes you feel any better.
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1817. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1816. JLPR2
Quoting alfabob:


Don't think any satellites will be passing by until 05:17:38, 05:25:20 and 05:43:01 (UTC). Then another gap until 08:42:57UTC according to Navy site.


Arrg! The agony! XD
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Quoting centex:
I'm referring to the general notion that Houston over evaculated for Rita, maybe Ike helped calm that notion down.


Houston didnt care, 175mph spooked everybody
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Quoting centex:
I'm referring to the general notion that Houston over evaculated for Rita, maybe Ike helped calm that notion down.



Evacuation for IKE was alot smoother. They evacuated by zones instead of everyone at one time. It was absolutely crazy with Rita.
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1811. JLPR2
Well I'm all cranky now. LOL

The last image of Ex-Gaston is from 3:45z and it's almost 5z. :\
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Quoting Orcasystems:
The models have Gaston going thru both Hebert Boxes, anywhere from a CAT 1-4.
There is a very large train of systems lining up over Africa... its going to get busy in a Hurry.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


GOING to get busy? :)

Its already been busy, we've had 5 tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic in the past two weeks (Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, TD 10, ha ha catching my breath), I can hardly keep up anymore XD
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1808. xcool
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1807. centex
Quoting RitaEvac:


Lots didnt evac for Ike and I was one of them. I'm 25 miles inland from Galveston. What freaked everybody out was when Rita bombed out to 175mph, and tracked to hit just SW of Galveston.
I'm referring to the general notion that Houston over evaculated for Rita, maybe Ike helped calm that notion down.
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The models have Gaston going thru both Hebert Boxes, anywhere from a CAT 1-4.
There is a very large train of systems lining up over Africa... its going to get busy in a Hurry.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Thats why everybody left for Rita, 175mph SW of Galveston....we were all going under and got the hell outta there
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1804. Skyepony (Mod)
Climatology really tends to favor N to NE for TD10
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Quoting swflurker:
Hmmmmmmmmm, Still waitin for Jason to call this a fish storm!


hahaha.....I hear ya.
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One thing about Bay Area Houston is, there are a lot of Bayous and Tributaries that tie into Galveston Bay, if a storm with a huge wind field were to hit SW of Galveston it is forecasted by models that people like me would flood 25 miles inland not from the actual surge but the back up from the surge clogging up the bayous and not letting rainwater drain off quick enough. Which would meet with the Gulf surge water making the whole area the friggin Gulf at some point after landfall
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Hmmmmmmmmm, Still waitin for Jason to call this a fish storm!
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Quoting Skyepony:


Guatemala, as the moisture moved across the last 2 days, including today.


Mmmm mmm mmm mmm mmm (shaking my head), I hope flooding stops there soon. And I don't like how TD 10 may add to rains in the Rio Grande region. Enough already for them too, they had floods from Alex and TD 2 back to back in June.
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1799. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yikes, is that in Mexico due to when it was 11-E?


Guatemala, as the moisture moved across the last 2 days, including today.
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Quoting centex:
I still can't get over the post Katrina Ritaevacs coming to central Texas. It was a sight I will never forget. Wonder if lessons from Katrina and Rita can ever both be resolved. Houston can/well get a storm where Rita type evacuations will be appropriate.


Lots didnt evac for Ike and I was one of them. I'm 25 miles inland from Galveston. What freaked everybody out was when Rita bombed out to 175mph, and tracked to hit just SW of Galveston.
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1797. Skyepony (Mod)
MLC~ It's a shame buses & vehicles keep getting caught in landslides there, year after year. Road closures should happen a little sooner for some of the problem areas instead of these repeated tragedies.
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Quoting Skyepony:
TD10 has already killed atleast 38 people, more missing.


Yikes, is that in Mexico due to when it was 11-E?
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1795. centex
Quoting RitaEvac:
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2010

, Coastal Flood Watch For The Upper Texas Coast Monday
Through Tuesday,
, Rip Currents And Elevated Tides Will Be An Issue On
The Gulf Facing Beaches Monday And Tuesday,

.Tropical Depression 10 Has Formed In The Southwest Gulf
And Is Expected To Make Landfall Over Northern Mexico Early
Tuesday As A Tropical Storm. Swells Associated With The System
Will Result In Elevated Tides Along The Upper Texas Coast On
Monday Through Tuesday.
I still can't get over the post Katrina Ritaevacs coming to central Texas. It was a sight I will never forget. Wonder if lessons from Katrina and Rita can ever both be resolved. Houston can/well get a storm where Rita type evacuations will be appropriate.
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If we really want to settle this debate, if the Huron cyclone had a fully vertical warm core due to its convection such that it had anticyclonic upper outflow, then it was tropical.

If the Huron cyclone had no frontal zone attached, but had a low-level warm core coupled with a cold-core upper low above, it wa subtropical.

If the Huron cyclone had frontal zones attached with a low-level warm core coupled with a cold core upper low above, it was a deeply-occluded extratropical cyclone. (extratropical is a fancy word for nontropical, just like how extraterristrial means not terristerial or not from earth).
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Quoting NOSinger:
Got a question for anyone....probably a dumb one, but that's ok...When a storm moves thru the Yucatan and enters the Gulf say late Sept onwards...is there any "trends" on direction they normally take. I realize there are many variables that guide a storm but was wondering if they favor a certain side of the gulf coast states.? TIA


I wanna say most likely western to central GOM. Correct me if I'm wrong anyone...
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Quoting Skyepony:
TD10 has already killed atleast 38 people, more missing.


:( And, that whole basin has had its share of flooding already it seems.
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Got a question for anyone....probably a dumb one, but that's ok...When a storm moves thru the Yucatan and enters the Gulf say late Sept onwards...is there any "trends" on direction they normally take. I realize there are many variables that guide a storm but was wondering if they favor a certain side of the gulf coast states.? TIA
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1790. Skyepony (Mod)
TD10 has already killed atleast 38 people, more missing.
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1789. xcool
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In Brazoria And Galveston Counties... Minor Flooding Is Possible
Along The Bolivar Peninsula... Western Galveston Island... And
Surfside. Minor Flooding Is Possible Along Highway 87 On The
Bolivar Peninsula... County Road 257... The Blue Water Highway...
And On Fm Highway 3005 On The West End Of Galveston Island.
The Tidal Flooding On Top Of Wave Action Could Result In
Water Pushing Up Above The Sand Dunes.

In Matagorda County... Minor Flooding Will Be Possible On Fm
Highway 457 South Of Sargent And Fm Highway 2031 South Of
Matagorda Going To Matagorda Island.

In Addition To High Water Levels... High Surf Will Create Strong Rip
Currents So Swimming Is Discouraged.

Persons Should Continue To Monitor The Latest Forecasts On
Tropical Depression 10. Any Northward Deviation In The Forecast
Track Of The System Could Result In Higher Tide Levels Than
What Is Currently Forecast.
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Post 1785,

Excellent point you made about how VERTICAL temperatre contrasts and not simply just surface temp dictates weather. YES, YES YES. That's how you get extratropical to tropical transition over cool waters, that explains systems like Grace 2009 or Vince 2005.
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COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
Urgent - Immediate Broadcast Requested
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 5 2010

, Coastal Flood Watch For The Upper Texas Coast Monday
Through Tuesday,
, Rip Currents And Elevated Tides Will Be An Issue On
The Gulf Facing Beaches Monday And Tuesday,

.Tropical Depression 10 Has Formed In The Southwest Gulf
And Is Expected To Make Landfall Over Northern Mexico Early
Tuesday As A Tropical Storm. Swells Associated With The System
Will Result In Elevated Tides Along The Upper Texas Coast On
Monday Through Tuesday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.