Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Are you folks staying up all night?
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Are you folks staying up all night?
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1883. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1882. centex
Closest I could find which is transmitting regularly.

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


TD 10 has a broad circulation center, so its possible to have some center reformation to the left or right, but the ridge developing in the wake of the trough that recurved Earl shall bend this TD or whatever it becomes to the northwest.


That's cool and I am glad. I appreciate your response. I do understand about the ridge and it pushing it to the NW but wasn't sure if it would make a difference in where it would make landfall if it moved further NE before it made the turn. Thanks again.
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
I am not wishcasting but will the cone not shift to the right the more this moves to the NE before turning to the NW?


TD 10 has a broad circulation center, so its possible to have some center reformation to the left or right, but the ridge developing in the wake of the trough that recurved Earl shall bend this TD or whatever it becomes to the northwest.
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1879. centex
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


But the NHC did give a lot of mention to 90L in the tropical weather outlooks over the last couple of days, so they saw its potential to develop too, right?
Yes, but after NWS Mets quoting results from different set of models. The thinking to ignore general weather models over those created for tropical systems does not hold when they develop, especially home grown systems. NHC did not mention those models developed a system and the NWS Mets did. NHC is just not the only source.
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I am not wishcasting but will the cone not shift to the right the more this moves to the NE before turning to the NW?
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1877. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1876. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
back to 70% with Ex-Gaston, talk about a roller coaster lol
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0z CMC sends td 10 into North Mexico.
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Quoting centex:
The best predictive analysis was done by NWS mets and not NHC on TD ten. They like the CANADIAN MODEL, anyone have link for it?


But the NHC did give a lot of mention to 90L in the tropical weather outlooks over the last couple of days, so they saw its potential to develop too, right?
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1872. centex
The best predictive analysis was done by NWS mets and not NHC on TD ten. They like the CANADIAN MODEL, anyone have link for it?
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Crazy how this system has moved back east a couple of degrees in the last couple of runs. Will this cause the forecast points to shift to the right a litte? Just curious.
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I have to give credit to Reedzone about pointing out a common pattern.

2003: Fabian curves northward toward Bermuda, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Fabian, sending Isabel FURTHER WEST toward North Carolina and Virginia.

1996: Edouard curves northward toward New England and Atlantic Canada, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Edouard, sending Fran FURTHER WEST toward North Carolina.

2008: Hanna curves northward toward the US east coast, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Hanna, sending Ike FURTHER WEST toward the Gulf of Mexico.

And I present to you what could happen now:

2010: Earl curves northward toward the US east coast, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Earl, sending Gaston FURTHER WEST toward the Caribbean (and perhaps Gulf of Mexico?).
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT35 KNHC 060542
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...DEPRESSION A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 95.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...
55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
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I have an idea? Lets buy OZ a bottle of scotch, and send him over for a bird's eye view!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey... in all honesty, I know squat about forecasting. I could be so out to lunch I make JFV look like a rocket scientist.

I THINK what I said was correct... but we all know what happens when I think... just ask my wife.
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1865. 789
we got casters ,up ,down ,good bad ,ugly ,it must take a little diversity to get things done
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Quoting JLPR2:


Gaston's circulation looks better defined than Td10's but Td 10 has the winds, Gaston doesn't, ah the irony LOL!


You could combine them and get a hurricane! :O
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1863. JLPR2
Quoting Orcasystems:






latest updates.
Have fun... its past my bed time.


Hurray! I'm visible in the first one! xD
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1862. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:


It elongated & barely closed on the WSW side. At least it's somewhat closed on the NE side. The windsat from earlier had that open. The windsat was available about the time it was designated a TD. Atleast it has convection in it's favor. Much improvement over 4 hrs though. Really pulling together. You may be right..


Gaston's circulation looks better defined than Td10's but Td 10 has the winds, Gaston doesn't, ah the irony LOL!
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1861. centex
I think we can credit the non-tropical models for predicting TD Ten. The lesson is maybe we should watch them for home grown cyclogenesis. I know will not go over well on this blog.
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latest updates.
Have fun... its past my bed time.
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1859. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting centex:
For reference, this was the last advisory for Gaston, back on Thursday.



Lets see here, Gaston is nearing 55W, looks like the NHC had the track too slow to the west.

I knew it! In my last blog post, I was right to say I believed the NHC had the storm moving too slowly west. Direct quote from my last post "Between 0900Z September 3 and 0900Z September 4, I created some slight acceleration as it beginst to feel the strong ridge at 30N 60W, and I agreed with the NHC foreward speed guidance again. After that, I decided to accelerate Gaston somewhat faster to the west and keep it slighlty faster than the NHC foreward speed guidance. This is because I feel Gaston will swiftly accelerate westward as it gets influenced by the really strong ridge at 30N 60W. Plus, Fiona and Earl have recently accelerated westward in that same region while influenced by the same strong ridge cell."

Even my faster projection I made in Figure 1 a few days ago seems a bit too slow.
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I've passed kidney stones bigger than gastón.
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Hi TD10/Hermine.I think you'll become a 65mph storm.Good luck.
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1855. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Sloppy? I think it looks great, can see the center in that pass. Phew, pheeewwww. Maybe Hermine will turn out to be a looker (Just kidding).


It elongated & barely closed on the WSW side. At least it's somewhat closed on the NE side. The windsat from earlier had that open. The windsat was available about the time it was designated a TD. Atleast it has convection in it's favor. Much improvement over 4 hrs though. Really pulling together. You may be right..
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1854. EricSFL


Gaston looks like a scorpion facing the wrong way.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey... in all honesty, I know squat about forecasting. I could be so out to lunch I make JFV look like a rocket scientist.

I THINK what I said was correct... but we all know what happens when I think... just ask my wife.


Ok I found it... I actually might have been right :)

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1851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
09L/REM LOW
MARK
17N/55.5W
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1849. xcool
RECON later on today on td10 11am
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
0z cmc = no gastón redevelopment
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, but recently (knocking-on-wood) it seems I've been recently protected from these MAJOR storms (live slighlty inland in Raleigh, NC), sometimes by a ridge that sends the storm further south in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, or a strong trough that curves the system to pass just east of me. Shall I cite Danille, Earl, Ike 2008, Gustav 2008, Bill 2009, the big storms of 2005? I hope my luck continues.


Hey... in all honesty, I know squat about forecasting. I could be so out to lunch I make JFV look like a rocket scientist.

I THINK what I said was correct... but we all know what happens when I think... just ask my wife.
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1846. centex
For reference, this was the last advisory for Gaston, back on Thursday.

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1845. xcool
F4PHANTOM lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1844. xcool
Hurricanes101 i meaning Little more convection.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Gaston is well schooled in Shakespeare. "To be or not to be, that is the question?"

I know someone on here tonight has at least thought of that joke XD
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Quoting xcool:
Gaston,need help



???? looks pretty good to me
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1840. xcool
Gaston,need help
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Orcasystems:


Good question...I wish I knew the answer..



You have a large formation of systems coming across Africa, some of them are going to form.. even the one just leaving Africa right now



History tells us that the systems that hit the east coast are CV style storms (I believe that statement is correct)

ergo: Yes


Yeah, but recently (knocking-on-wood) it seems I've been recently protected from these MAJOR storms (live slighlty inland in Raleigh, NC), sometimes by a ridge that sends the storm further south in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, or a strong trough that curves the system to pass just east of me. Shall I cite Danille, Earl, Ike 2008, Gustav 2008, Bill 2009, the big storms of 2005? I hope my luck continues.
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1838. JLPR2
It's all in you Gaston, but let me trow you this bucket of very dry dirt to help you out. XD

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1837. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1836. JLPR2
Quoting centex:
Gaston is trying to break record for length of regeneration period.


LOL! yeah
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Is there any chance the east coast could be in play again?


Good question...I wish I knew the answer..



You have a large formation of systems coming across Africa, some of them are going to form.. even the one just leaving Africa right now



History tells us that the systems that hit the east coast are CV style storms (I believe that statement is correct)

ergo: Yes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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