Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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1935. xcool
my September Forecast call for 10 named storms .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1933. xcool
cloud tops
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1932. xcool


holy bat
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
EURo 240

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1929. xcool
CoopNTexas opps
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1928. xcool
btwntx08 yep you need stop taker a nap
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EURO 216

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HERMIE...LOL
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1924. xcool
00z shows weaker wave in head to Caribbean
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1922. xcool
HERMINE hello
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1920. xcool
< Work So Much .I forgot about tropical
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L
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1918. xcool
12z shows head to Caribbean hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
EURO 12Z from SUNDAY

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1916. xcool
maybe guess w'e find outt soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
HERMINE!!!!????
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1914. xcool
CoopNTexas oh.
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1913. xcool
btwntx08 alot.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Yep...had them in 12z run yesterday too!
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1910. ackee
I am very concern that if models are right on Gaston track it could intensify rapidly in central carrb not mention if reach the western carrb given very warm water
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1909. xcool
CoopNTexas wow two storms.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
192

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Among with many other people I'm sure, I called that storm in the EPAC transferring over to the BOC. Crazy it didn't even have much time to develop. H storm here we come.
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1906. ackee
I think we see gaston back by 11am
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what models are 90%? heck even 50% this season?

I'm just posting as they come out.
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1904. xcool
CoopNTexas .shows hope :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
Hey coop! Take a snapshot of that, and then 6 days from now, overlay that with the current model. Let me know it anything changed~! THANKS!
Quoting CoopNTexas:
EURO 144hrs

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EURO 168

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I have to give credit to Reedzone about pointing out a common pattern.

2003: Fabian curves northward toward Bermuda, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Fabian, sending Isabel FURTHER WEST toward North Carolina and Virginia.

1996: Edouard curves northward toward New England and Atlantic Canada, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Edouard, sending Fran FURTHER WEST toward North Carolina.

2008: Hanna curves northward toward the US east coast, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Hanna, sending Ike FURTHER WEST toward the Gulf of Mexico.

And I present to you what could happen now:

2010: Earl curves northward toward the US east coast, a ridge builds in the wake of the trough that recurved Earl, sending Gaston FURTHER WEST toward the Caribbean (and perhaps Gulf of Mexico?).


I thought it was Danielle curved NORTHWARD creating a ridge in its wake that sent Earl FURTHER WEST towards a brush with the US East Coast and landfall in Canada? :/

Regardless of any of this TD 10 Hermine, Gaston or further west mumbo jumbo, the only thing that really matters is that IGOR IS COMING!
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EURO 144hrs

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I'm surprised that you have not found out that the NHC just follows the storms, tries to figure where they may go, but usually tells you where they are after we all know where their at.
Quoting Tropicaldan:
xGaston....52w at 2am?

This is the second consecutive discussion that NHC gets the coordinates completely wrong.

Inexcusable. Incompetent. Dangerous.

Heads should roll
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1898. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1897. xcool
swflurker :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1896. xcool
PolishHurrMaster i really think 2011 hurricane season going be more more active this years..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
your sat pics and your forcast posts are better than your long range models. THANKS!
Quoting xcool:
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Quoting xcool:


So end of season 2010 and possibly beginning of 2011 will be active...interesting...with this TCHP...
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1893. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicaldan:
xGaston....52w at 2am?

This is the second consecutive discussion that NHC gets the coordinates completely wrong.

Inexcusable. Incompetent. Dangerous.

Heads should roll


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
xGaston....52w at 2am?

This is the second consecutive discussion that NHC gets the coordinates completely wrong.

Inexcusable. Incompetent. Dangerous.

Heads should roll
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1891. xcool
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* GASTON AL092010 09/06/10 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 46 57 68 76 84 92 102 112
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 42 52 66 85 105 119 126 131
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
1890. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15672
0z SHIPS blowing gaston up in Carib.
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1888. JLPR2
All we got is a more than an hour old picture of Ex-Gaston, I wish the Nasa satellite that updates quickly would pick up that sector. XD

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8698
I don't think X Gaston will redevelop. The GFS has been great at the survivability of systems this year.
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Are you folks staying up all night?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.