Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

So was what Steve Irwin, the Crocodile Hunter, did and countless others. If someone can't separate TV from their own reality/capabilities then they may just be up for the next Darwin award.

I'm a newbie with a new avatar but still Charlestonnanny. All of this freedom of speech is nonsense as Dr. Masters owns this blog and that is "freedom of ownership" IMO. When does a hurricane warning go up for storms? Than you all.
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Wilma's the fastest strengthening hurricane (Atlantic Basin). It went from a Tropical storm to a cat5 in about 24-30 hours.
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2883. Hhunter
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Thanks for the link guys.
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2881. will40
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

not sure what this recon is up to
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Is anyone else picking up on any obs from the Hurricane Hunters? I'm not.
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2879. Patrap


Quoting Floodman:
Thanks, Pat...I'll be by to collect with a couple of sixes of Abita!


Purple Haze is da Hopps Du jour of the day here


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Think of this as the second trimester ultrasound for both Igor (left) and Julia. Yikes!

Click for larger image:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13797
Quoting Ryuujin:


I have the same opinion of Reed Timmer as well. Yes the Weather Channel does it because they have a $ stake in it, so does Reed and so does Oz. None of them would do it for purely scientific gain.

It might be compelling viewing, but it's also a foundation for disaster if someone decides to go out and follow in said folks footsteps. That's all.


I've chased six hurricanes, most recently Ike... got a lot of gear to help keep myself as safe as possible - and I have never made a dime.. but have spent quite a few of them lol
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Hi Wunderground.


Hey :)
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2875. Hhunter
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
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2874. Levi32
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!


Celia was a tropical depression in the Caribbean for 36 hours before becoming a storm...and then yes it did rapidly strengthen into a Cat 3 but no more than that, certainly not 180mph, and not very close to land either.

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2873. tkeith
Quoting hydrus:
There is a third..Ozzie osbourne.(Party Animal-Rock star).:)
I stand corrected Hydrus :)
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2872. Patrap



Houston,,you've got a Hot Mike..!


Pffffttttttt............
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Hi Wunderground.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting Kristina40:
Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.

Link
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2869. hydrus
Quoting tkeith:
it seems we may be discussing two different Oz's...

clarification: OZ= (CycloneOz, former blogger, alledged scotch drinker)

ozzy= (ignore list filler, non-focuser)
There is a third..Ozzie osbourne.(Party Animal-Rock star).:)
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Thanks, Pat...I'll be by to collect with a couple of sixes of Abita!
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I'm not knocking, dissing, down-casting, poo-pooing, righting off, or otherwise disrespecting the potential of EX gaston...BUT, the facts remain that no matter what his potential, the cyclone to be has been unable to do much for days. Gaston has failed to hold onto his balls of convection..they wax and wane. At the moment, he appears intent on passing through the Antilles as a naked swirl. There are plenty of nude beaches. What happens beyond that is open to the fertile imaginations of the bloggers. Some models show stengthening, others do not. It's a hard call.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.
NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance

Tropical Atlantic Live Reconnaissance Data
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2865. Ryuujin
Quoting SouthCentralTex:


So let's censor him for thinking outside the box? Geez, this blog is full of a bunch of whiny wimps. Half of the folks on here wishcast a storm to they're front door, then like the hypocrites they are, put Oz down for what he does. This isn't Oz's first rodeo. He's been through several Hurricanes and is a storm chaser by nature. If the man wants report from inside the wall of a storm. Who are you to criticise him for that? Just because he doesn't have a Million Dollar Operation and crew of 50 backing him doesn't make him unsafe.


No it's his overhyping 50 MPH winds like it's going to rip the fabric of space-time and shooting in a dark environment with a gas awning that garnishes him contempt.

I'll use a alternate occupation.

If solid storm chasers that are careful and know their surroundings and know how to shoot video and take accurate readings to share the data with the community are A Class Trial/Co-orporate Lawyers, then Oz is basically an Ambulance Chaser.
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2864. hydrus
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:


It scares me that Hurr Celia (1970) was a small depression that no one worried about when we went to bed, and we woke up to a 180mph monster knocking at our door. Hope this one does differently!
180 ??? I think it was sustained at 130 with gusts to 161.
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2863. tkeith
it seems we may be discussing two different Oz's...

clarification: OZ= (CycloneOz, former blogger, alledged scotch drinker)

ozzy= (ignore list filler, non-focuser)
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Thanks recordseason, belizewunderfan, as of an hour ago it was near 17 N 56.5 W

Thanks!
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Anyone have the link to the HH data website? I forgot to bookmark it.
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Yesterday:

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Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine back up to 114kts flight level gust...
Source(s)?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
recon flight is halfway to Hermine
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Once Gaston gets in the Caribbean, Uh-Oh!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32813
Quoting StormJunkie:


Junky, tell him to turn the cam on for the drive so we can see just how far away he is when it makes landfall.
I would like to see that too
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Quoting Patrap:

A dropsonde just missed me and da grill and NOLA Roux is chewing it to shreds..


Don't let her eat the diodes...they're hard to pass
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Levi the latest 1545utc satellite imagery shows what you are saying very well. Although the extent of the cold cloud tops have actually warmed, that equatorward band is wrapping into the center of Hermine now and will allow rapid deepening to occur once established. Time is running out on Hermine's ability to strengthen, but I think she should become a category one hurricane before landfall intensity set at 80mph.


Completely agree; The storm is consolidating rather quickly--IR Dvorak has captured the process fairly well. If this thing isn't a hurricane by 7:00PM EDT, I'll be very surprised.
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Afternoon mlc, good to see ya.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Hermine back up to 114kts flight level gust...

A 70KT Hurricane??
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2848. Ryuujin
Quoting racer925:

I don't have a dog in fight I could careless. But saying OZ does not have the right, then why does Jim Cantore or any other weatherman have a right? If it was not for people risking their own lives how would we ever get the videos to warn future people of the dangers of these storms. He is doing it just like I like to chase tornadoes. He is not making money doing it, but if the Weather Channel sends someone out there they ARE making money because we like seeing these people in harms way. There may be more to this story than I know but that is my take on people going into these storms.


I have the same opinion of Reed Timmer as well. Yes the Weather Channel does it because they have a $ stake in it, so does Reed and so does Oz. None of them would do it for purely scientific gain.

It might be compelling viewing, but it's also a foundation for disaster if someone decides to go out and follow in said folks footsteps. That's all.
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2847. luigi18
Quoting Gearsts:
Gaston looking better finally!
Here in Puerto Rico is a lot of humidity and the water in the beach is very very hot! not normal. this means a favorable environment for Jr Gaston.
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I'm not so sure. Gaston looks basically like a swirl void of any real convection near its center.
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Quoting StormJunkie:

And those of you that know me, know I have little tolerance for an over inflated ego.



...uumm, ain't that what we call an "overcooked ham!" ;P
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Levi the latest 1545utc satellite imagery shows what you are saying very well. Although the extent of the cold cloud tops have actually warmed, that equatorward band is wrapping into the center of Hermine now and will allow rapid deepening to occur once established. Time is running out on Hermine's ability to strengthen, but I think she should become a category one hurricane before landfall intensity set at 80mph.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


True, but remember Humberto?

-Snow
I do. But even Humberto was a cat 1 at landfall. I'm not saying this cant become a hurricane, but I don't see more than a minimal cane. Its rate of organization is quite impressive. The NAM seems to have called this one correctly.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Top of the day everyone! WOW! Hermine blew up QUICK!!! Oz is en route to intercept! Go live 5am tomorrow morning for those interested...http://7674u.com

How likely is it that Hermine becomes a hurricane before landfall?


Junky, tell him to turn the cam on for the drive so we can see just how far away he is when it makes landfall.
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Quoting Ryuujin:


The difference is that the Three Stooges were on film (at the time) and on TV when we all saw them. We also were of the understanding that they're fictional characters. Oz isn't and what he does is dangerous.

I don't have a dog in fight I could careless. But saying OZ does not have the right, then why does Jim Cantore or any other weatherman have a right? If it was not for people risking their own lives how would we ever get the videos to warn future people of the dangers of these storms. He is doing it just like I like to chase tornadoes. He is not making money doing it, but if the Weather Channel sends someone out there they ARE making money because we like seeing these people in harms way. There may be more to this story than I know but that is my take on people going into these storms.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Models oscillate all over with Gaston, just as he does almost.

(On a side note - Ravens just got Houshmandzadeh.)


....and I jst dropped him yesterday from my Fantasy league, too.... figures...

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Well yes, but that isn't like two days. 12 hours is enough time to reach hurricane strength but not much more than that. Hermine still has to develop a tight core to become a hurricane, and may be on its way of doing so, but these things don't just happen. Systems don't really bomb until they have an eyewall, and this doesn't yet.


True, but remember Humberto?

-Snow
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@48 hrs, still no Gaston... what the heck?



...but notice what's coming off Africa
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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