Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking good:

Click for larger image:


Hermine, yes. Wow. Gaston... meh.
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2084. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Looking good:

Click for larger image:
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Quoting IKE:
If the GFS is correct, Igor will form in the eastern ATL this week...@ 78 hours.


GFS model has given me a little Peace of Mind http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cTYhY3NUWE as its performance has improved. Ike enjoy this tune by one of the best front men in the business Brad Delp.
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Good Morning Everybody!

Gaston, I believe has mantianed good convection; and new convection has recently popped up, near the center, which is key. THe environment is favorable for Gaston to develop, and I expect TD Gaston before the sun sets on Gaston.

Floater- Visible Loop

And now we have a huge, much better organized than yesterday storm in the GOMEX. Yow. Has massive amounts of convection, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Herminie acquire hurricane status.

Floater- Visible Loop
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what is the risk of TS winds in the Carr on this image for... Gaston has not formed yet so how do they have TS risk for it yet???

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2077. WxLogic
Good Morning...

I see we have TS Hermine...can't disagree with that N movement with a more NNW to NW movement later in the period:

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The real danger for N Mex and S Texas is rainfall in the Rio Grande watershed below the Big Bend of Texas. Anything > 4 or 5 inches in less than 24 hours is going to cause a lot of flooding problems.

What many may not know is that just a week ago we finally drained off the last of the flood waters off of our river bottom land from Brownsville up to just below Del Rio. Most of that ground was 5 to 9 feet under water since just after Alex.

If you are interested in knowing, the critical area follows the Rio Grande within 75 miles of the river on the US and Mex side from the mouth upriver to Del Rio, and widens on the Mex side to 150 miles once it gets N of, say, Laredo. Then again on the US side once it passes N of Del Rio to include virtually all of W Texas up to I-20.

Another path similar to Alex will absoloutely devastate S Texas and N Mexico. Every single water storage facility on both sides of the border are already at or near capacity.
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Quoting Hhunter:


I like that image, the 10:15 UTC one, looks like a parrot facing west

Quoting Neapolitan:
Poor little Gaston.

It's been 16 consecutive TWOs since the little guy had his own discussion; it's been 96 hours (and counting) since the little swirl that could(n't) got any respect from the NHC, or since he was able to contribute even the tiniest bit of ACE to the seasonal total, or since he could really make an impression on anyone but a few mathematical model makers. He was born and raised in a tough neighborhood in a bad time, and nearly his entire youth has been spent being harshly tugged at by wind shear, while being beset on all sides by an airborne lobe of the Sahara that refuses to relinquish its vice-like grip on him. And as if that's not enough, he wasn't given a noble, heroic name, but was rather saddled with the pathetic, ambiguously-pronounced appelation known best by most as an arrogant, harrassing murderer killed by his own stupidity in an old Disney cartoon. To top off the indignity, many--including some right here in this forum--want him killed, want him gone, want him to just go away, as though his very existence is somehow an affront to them, or a bother, like a boil to be lanced and scraped.

And yet he survives...

When Gaston was born last Wednesday evening, Earl was a major storm still increasing in strength, and Fiona was not even halfway through her short but vivid life. Now, five days later, Earl's remnant energy is somewhere over cold northern Europe, and Fiona days ago devolved into a few clouds and brief Bermudan squalls...and, still, Gaston limps bravely along. He'll be thrust back into the shadows for a couple of days now--shadows from whence he's never fully emerged--while Hermine has her few days in the spotlight; and Africa may be right now spinning off a system that'll grab that spotlight about the time Hermine exits the stage.

Poor little Gaston. I'm not given to anthropomorphizing inanimate objects, but if ever there was a life lesson to be learned about persevering in the face of all odds, Gaston's the one to teach it. How it's going to end for him is anyone's guess--his predicted future ranges from growing into a major Caribbean storm to dissipating into a few fluffy and harmless cumulus clouds. But I say he's already earned our respect. Not for what he's done, but for what he hasn't: quit.

You go, Gaston!


A+ post, would read again.
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Ah gotcha,

Tropical Storm HER-MEEN.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, I think it is Her-mean


Oh, for the love of...as Storm just said, it's her-MEEN. See for yourself, and wonder no more... ;-)
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Hermine her-MEEN

Link
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2070. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I believe its 'Her-mine"
No, I think it is Her-mean
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Quoting weatherwart:


So, is it "Her-mine" or "Her-mine-e?"


I believe its 'Her-mine"
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2067. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Looks like things could get nasty. And they're not sure about the track.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
519 AM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...TRACK OF WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF...AND INTO MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BASED ON
COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CRP CWA ARE
BEING HELD OFF...HOWEVER IF TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH IN NEXT
PACKAGE THEN WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH
TEXAS REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND
LOCALLY HEAVY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND TODAY AND LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK IN
OUTER BANDS ACROSS THE CRP CWA...COMING MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY (SEE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK).

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
2065. IKE
Quoting robert88:
I have to admit the GFS has been doing really well and seems to be getting better with time. It is doing a better job with latching onto waves coming off Africa and weak systems like Hermine as well. I have noticed that a lot of mets out there are really starting to put some faith back into the model. The ECMWF has been the opposite with having a hard time with struggling systems and some long range issues here and there. I believe it is safe to say now the GFS is going to give the ECMWF some serious competition for the rest of the season.


+1
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I have to admit the GFS has been doing really well and seems to be getting better with time. It is doing a better job with latching onto waves coming off Africa and weak systems like Hermine as well. I have noticed that a lot of mets out there are really starting to put some more faith back into the model than they had before. The ECMWF has been the opposite with having a hard time with struggling systems and some long range issues here and there. I believe it is safe to say now the GFS is going to give the ECMWF some serious competition for the rest of the season.
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2063. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Poor little Gaston.

It's been 16 consecutive TWOs since the little guy had his own discussion; it's been 96 hours (and counting) since the little swirl that could(n't) got any respect from the NHC, or since he was able to contribute even the tiniest bit of ACE to the seasonal total, or since he could really make an impression on anyone but a few mathematical model makers. He was born and raised in a tough neighborhood in a bad time, and nearly his entire youth has been spent being harshly tugged at by wind shear, while being beset on all sides by an airborne lobe of the Sahara that refuses to relinquish its vice-like grip on him. And as if that's not enough, he wasn't given a noble, heroic name, but was rather saddled with the pathetic, ambiguously-pronounced appelation known best by most as an arrogant, harrassing murderer killed by his own stupidity in an old Disney cartoon. To top off the indignity, many--including some right here in this forum--want him killed, want him gone, want him to just go away, as though his very existence is somehow an affront to them, or a bother, like a boil to be lanced and scraped.

And yet he survives...

When Gaston was born last Wednesday evening, Earl was a major storm still increasing in strength, and Fiona was not even halfway through her short but vivid life. Now, five days later, Earl's remnant energy is somewhere over cold northern Europe, and Fiona days ago devolved into a few clouds and brief Bermudan squalls...and, still, Gaston limps bravely along. He'll be thrust back into the shadows for a couple of days now--shadows from whence he's never fully emerged--while Hermine has her few days in the spotlight; and Africa may be right now spinning off a system that'll grab that spotlight about the time Hermine exits the stage.

Poor little Gaston. I'm not given to anthropomorphizing inanimate objects, but if ever there was a life lesson to be learned about persevering in the face of all odds, Gaston's the one to teach it. How it's going to end for him is anyone's guess--his predicted future ranges from growing into a major Caribbean storm to dissipating into a few fluffy and harmless cumulus clouds. But I say he's already earned our respect. Not for what he's done, but for what he hasn't: quit.

You go, Gaston!
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2060. Hhunter
Link

brownsville radar
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting jason2010xxxx:


We almost have 5% chance of TS winds. Lol. But wonder where those TS winds in the Caribbean are from. Hmmm?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
2058. Hhunter
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF GULF WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...
STARR...HIDALGO...INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON...POSSIBLE
IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A CONCERN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6N...LONGITUDE 95.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 330 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...OR ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH OR 360
DEGREES AT 8 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Quoting StormW:
Just wanted to drop in and say good morning before starting analysis.


Good morning Storm. Everyone. :)
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2056. Titoxd
Alvarado radar:

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2055. IKE
If the GFS is correct, Igor will form in the eastern ATL this week...@ 78 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2054. Titoxd
Quoting LavosPhoenix:


Can you post the long range radar from Tampico or whatever radar they had mentioned either in this report or the previous one?


From http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=14&Itemid=84 -

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The true question is how many people today are going to misspell / mispronounce 'Hermine' as 'Hermione'.


So, is it "Her-mine" or "Her-mine-e?"
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2051. IKE
Convection with Hermine....



Convection with Gaston....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2049. Hhunter
man we cant catch a break in south texas. just when we dry out we get soaked again. gonna suck
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
HERM Could become superstorm if it continues to go North.
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2047. IKE
Quoting LavosPhoenix:


Can you post the long range radar from Tampico or whatever radar they had mentioned either in this report or the previous one?


I don't know how to get to that one. I think I've seen it posted on here. Go back to previous pages of this blog and you might can find it or maybe someone else can post it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Just picked this from the Hermine discussion:

ASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL
30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...

Useful to know for future.
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Quoting IKE:
The center should start showing up on this long range radar soon....



Can you post the long range radar from Tampico or whatever radar they had mentioned either in this report or the previous one?
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2044. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
2043. IKE
The center should start showing up on this long range radar soon....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2042. IKE
Here's the Saturday morning 00Z GFS...forecast for 54 hours...which would be about now...shows a system in the SW GOM...

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2041. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
heh or be awaken by their weather radio for the issuance of that tropical storm warning.

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2040. IKE
Long-term discussion from last Friday afternoon from Brownsville,TX....

"LONG TERM /SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...LITTLE DOUBT THAT A
WETTER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY MORNING. DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH PLUS DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING NORTH. MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON GOOD
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MARINE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIP
FOCUS SHIFTING OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MORE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HEAVIEST CHANCES MOST LIKELY ON TUESDAY. POPS REFLECT MAINLY
CHANCE CATEGORY WITH LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE MARINE AREAS ON
TUESDAY."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
What irks me is that some said hermine probably wouldn't get named until the latest Monday evening and boom the sun hasn't even come up and all these people are gonna wake up to a tropical storm already...
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Even the 5-day precipitation rates from 2 days ago showed a large swathe of rains hitting Mexico/South Texas.
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2037. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MALOU (T1009)
18:00 PM JST September 6 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

at 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Malou (985 hPa) located at 32.5N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 34.9N 129.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 36.9N 134.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 37.0N 142.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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Quoting victoria780:
Thank you kind sir,Heres what crown weather said yesterday concerning the disturbance in the gulf.Now for the potential future track of this system, the latest GFS and European model forecast a track that would take it inland into northeast Mexico on Tuesday. The NAM model, on the other hand, looks way too extreme. It forecasts a strong tropical storm or low end Category 1 hurricane making landfall on the Texas coast near Matagorda Bay on Tuesday morning. The NAM model looks way overdone and will be discounted.


I wouldn't worry about the NAM solution coming to fruition. Still, flooding rain is a very likely possibility across Matagorda Bay.
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2035. IKE
The GFS has also been doing little to nothing with Gaston the last several runs...and it looks correct on it...for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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