Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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2135. Gearsts
Quoting Hhunter:


interesting
Stop it is really annoying now.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:



wow this looks bad for us here in cayman well wednesday I will get my supplies at the store


Also notice the area of Low P. on the right side of the image...
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Well if it's a tropical storm it probably has a center.Hold on to your cattle boys i mean poodles.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Sorry, it was some model and I know people can back me up on this. Everyone was talking about it. Thanks for letting me know.


That's okay. I think you're thinking of the GFS. ;)
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wow this looks bad for us here in cayman well wednesday I will get my supplies at the store
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2130. Hhunter
yes rip gaston..now granted it is rip now or cat 4 in 4 days.. but i vote rip
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Quoting Snowlover123:


The NAM doesn't go out 9 days out...


Sorry, it was some model and I know people can back me up on this. Everyone was talking about it. Thanks for letting me know.
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2128. Hhunter


interesting
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Quoting Hhunter:


crap is that an eye?


Nope. Don't think so.
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Also, back on the anniversary of Katrina, a model I believe the NAM had a huge CAT 5 bearing down on Louisiana at 9 days out. I don't think it was this storm it was picking up on but it did show something.


The NAM doesn't go out 9 days out...
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2125. IKE
...HERMINE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 6
Location: 22.4N 95.3W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb

....................................

Moved .8N and .3W in 3 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting futuremet:
Shear will almost be nonexistent close to Gaston by tomorrow noon...



How about Hermine? O.o
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Gaston still doesn't want to give up. Come on turn into something (TD or poof)! I'm getting bored here. :P
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Quoting IKE:
The GFS has been showing a system in the SW GOM for at least 2 days...on every run.


Also, back on the anniversary of Katrina, a model I believe the NAM had a huge CAT 5 bearing down on Louisiana at 9 days out. I don't think it was this storm it was picking up on but it did show something.
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2121. Hhunter


crap is that an eye?
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2120. IKE
Is that the center spinning on the bottom of this radar loop....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Shear will almost be nonexistent close to Gaston by tomorrow noon...

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2118. pottery
See youall later>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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2116. Gearsts
Quoting Hhunter:


think i see beginnings of eye..yikes
lol
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2115. Hhunter
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2113. pottery
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. Especially since he has a lot of moisture to work with this am.

... but I dont agree with you....
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2112. IKE
Quoting pottery:

I agree with you ...


I do too. Nice post 451.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Dry air on Gaston....I'd have to lower the odds on him....I'll probably be proven wrong again here in minutes...



IKE, off to his west:

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2109. Hhunter


think i see beginnings of eye..yikes
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Quoting pottery:

I think he means "Really In Position"...
LOL. Especially since he has a lot of moisture to work with this am.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
2107. pottery
Quoting P451:


Soaked in dry air in the wake of the ULL and in the high pushing more dry air in from the north/north east.

Also just in shear from both influences.

Not in a good place and probably never will be.

We've seen the setup occur multiple times this season. Kept thinking the ULL would leave the storm behind. Kept thinking shear would relax. Atmosphere would moisten, and then the system would explode over hot SSTs.

Well, it didn't happen yet and I doubt it does here.

For the record I was never in the camp that thought those systems would shed their problematic partners and then develop.

Can't close the book entirely on a persistent system. All the same...Gaston isn't a threat.

I agree with you ...
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2106. IKE
Dry air on Gaston....I'd have to lower the odds on him....I'll probably be proven wrong again here in minutes...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting pottery:

I think he means "Really In Position"...


LMAO! :D
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2103. pottery
Quoting Snowlover123:


RIP ????

I think he means "Really In Position"...
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2102. Gearsts
Almost!60w is closing in :D
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Quoting Gearsts:
???


That would be like me saying rip to Hermine lol
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2100. pottery
Especialle Good Morning, Surfmom!
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Quoting Hhunter:
rip gaston


RIP ????
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2098. IKE
Not...for now...



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2097. pottery
Good Morning...
Brace for HerMeen, Texas!
Go Gaston! GO!!
Lovely morning here. Not a cloud in sight.
Have a Happy one, everyone!
Busy day ahead.............
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2096. Gearsts
Quoting Hhunter:
rip gaston
???
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A few small statistics: we've now had as many named September storms as the current "active" period years 1996 and 2009...and we've had twice as many as 1997. Just one more ties us with 1999 and the hyperactive year of 1995. Yes, really... :-)

(Bonus stat: in the current active period, five seasons had more named storms in October than they did in September: 1995, 1996, 1997, 2001...and 2005.)
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2093. surfmom
Nothing better then starting the day, sipping coffee and being greeted with a pic of a surfer enjoying Earl's Wave

Morning All who enjoy the Dawn
Checking in b/4 work
Yes, work
Horses don't know Holidays - but it's okay
Be nice if that 60 percent chance I have of rain
comes in earlier in the AM then later SWFL

Sheesh - not happy one bit to see where all that rain is heading...... last thing folks need in the TX/MeX area....
And Gaston chugs along - Yup Ike, he's got that little Engine that could attitude --got to watch that kind.
I'm off - later
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2092. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


GFS model has given me a little Peace of Mind http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cTYhY3NUWE as its performance has improved. Ike enjoy this tune by one of the best front men in the business Brad Delp.


RIP Brad...Link

67.8 outside right now.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Gaston really is 96L of '07 again (for those who can recall).
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2089. Hhunter
rip gaston
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
what is the risk of TS winds in the Carr on this image for... Gaston has not formed yet so how do they have TS risk for it yet???

This is for Hermine, not Gaston.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8366
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking good:

Click for larger image:


Hermine, yes. Wow. Gaston... meh.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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