Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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2185. CATMAN5
What is the system all the models are hinting at for +144 near 18N, 40W --- a future fish storm or real threat? Too far N already for just a 40W long.
No ridge in nw Atlantic?
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2184. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
almost looks to have opened up...


That's what I'm(as an amateur), thinking.
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2182. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Somewhere around 17N and 56W...but, it's getting harder to see...even on visible.
almost looks to have opened up...
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morning
Gaston is really struggling and this will be short lived.all the conditions are in place except sufficient moisture, for Gaston to develop into a signicant system. as soon as GASTON gets into the environment near 60W then it will begin to show signs of development. when it gets into the caribbean it will make use of the large amount of heat there and what appeared to be a fledling system will turn out to be something significant. this could well turn out to be a north west caribbean event
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


good morning Storm....been waiting for you :)
what are your thoughts on Hermine this morning? Gonna make it to S. Texas or not


Me too Storm, waiting to read what your thoughts are, I live in Corpus Christi, Tx, in your opinion, do you think this will move closer to Corpus Christi, and do you expect it to strengthen?
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2179. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
Does Gaston have a COC? if so where?





Somewhere around 17N and 56W...but, it's getting harder to see...even on visible loops.
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looking at Hermine, if it picks up any eastern component in it's direction could be trouble. It does appear to be intensifying quickly.Should be a interesting day, keep an eye out Greater Antilles and Texas for the surprises Labor day storm.
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Storm W.: I realize that Gaston will be heading towards a low shear environment, but unless he gets away from the dry air he will never develop. In your opinion, when does he move into a moister environment? Thanks.
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2176. tkeith
Does Gaston have a COC? if so where?



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2175. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


Season's over.
???

LOL!
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2174. Gearsts
Quoting StormW:


Season's over.
LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Season's over.


good morning Storm....been waiting for you :)
what are your thoughts on Hermine this morning? Gonna make it to S. Texas or not
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Here ya go ASCAT
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
What time does recon fly into Hermine
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I notice the gfs continues with the development Oh the cv waves. Sends them all out to sea though. Seems to be the trend this year. Starting 2 think the conus can get through yet another year without a hurricane strike.
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I have this nagging feeling that Hermine will be the second coming of Humberto in the Gulf. She's wasting no time in organizing - she began as a 25-knot depression two advisories ago - the circulation's getting tighter and tighter, and she's in the perfect environment for rapid intensification. I honestly wouldn't be terribly surprised if she becomes a hurricane prior to landfall, especially considering her centre of circulation being more northeast than expected.
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2166. IKE
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this thing grew fast going north and ant happy
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
2164. Hhunter
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Good morning from south Texas...I do not like the looks of Hermine...I am smack in the middle of the cone...local forecasts are calling for 8-10 inches of rainfall over the next 48 hours!
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2162. Gearsts
Hurracane Hermine is possible.
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The predicted track for Malou and it's location on satellite seem to be separated by quite a distance. Is there an explanation for this?
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Here...

18C/64F... cloudy... winds ESE at 25-30mph, gusts 45-50mph.

Fresh.
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Dry air is major problem for Gaston, and it will continue to be a burden for the next 36hrs.
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Good morning all.I wake up to a TS Hermine and trying to rejenerate EX Gaston, Hermine is pointed at present at me with models on Gaston straight to the Carb.I have faith in NHC but have a tremendous amount of respect to the pro's here at the University of WU.I will be watching,reading and learnig.Have a good LD.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11104
2155. Hhunter
rip gaston..you where so brave
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2154. IKE
Quoting RecordSeason:
2120:

Base on the 7:00central center fix, I think the CoC would still be 10 to 20 miles off the SE edge of the radar.


You may be right. I looked at the COC points on the floater of Hermine.

....................................

Gaston.....

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2153. Hhunter
Link

snow lover watch this radar loop ..this is the tropics not a blizzard..lets keep an EYE on circulation center.lol
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2152. Vero1

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS UPGRADED AT 06/0900 UTC TO TROPICAL
STORM. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 95.3W AT
06/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 185 NM E-SE OF TAMPICO MEXICO AND ABOUT 280
MI SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUST TO 50 KT.

A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N54W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM JUST W OF THE LOW NEAR 17N55W TO 22N60W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
Dare I ask why hasn't the African Wave/low been mentioned in the TWO?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5672
Is Hermine supposed to slow down?

At her current rate, she'll make 25N in just over 9 hours.
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Anyone writing off Gaston obviously don't remember the last 200 times or so we've been slapped in the face by pathetic systems. To name a few, Gustav, Dean, Felix, few others.

Anyone expecting rapid development of Gaston is also kidding themselves. There is extremely dry air around the center of circulation and thunderstorms are being suppressed.

Development, if any, of Gaston will be gradual and probably once it clears 60W.
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2147. Relix
Quoting Gearsts:
It still needs to be watched hopefully that wont happen.60W!


Jeanne at least looked good before being declared. Gaston looks bad bad bad except for the structure. Void of deep convection. Jeanne was indeed a miracle. Let's see if Gaston can do it.
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2146. IKE
Circulation with Gaston looks less defined to me. I still would have lowered his odds. They may have kept it at 70% based on a better environment in a day or so.

Quoting tkeith:
2138. IKE

looks like the NHC aint gonna write him off just yet...
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Quoting pottery:

... but I dont agree with you....


He does to his West.
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2144. Gearsts
Quoting Relix:


He will be nothing. Even if he does pull off something this close it won't be anything big. Expect a usual rainy day with some gusts. That's all.
It still needs to be watched hopefully that wont happen.60W!
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2142. tkeith
2138. IKE

looks like the NHC aint gonna write him off just yet...
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Well, I'll be back in a few hours. Ciao. ;)
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2140. Relix
Quoting palmasdelrio:
I wake up and read that Gaston is back. Then I look at the floaters and see that he's just a little blob of clouds. Can someone please tell me what's the forecast for Gaston for PR? TIA.


He will be nothing. Even if he does pull off something this close it won't be anything big. Expect a usual rainy day with some gusts. That's all.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2713
Quoting palmasdelrio:
I wake up and read that Gaston is back. Then I look at the floaters and see that he's just a little blob of clouds. Can someone please tell me what's the forecast for Gaston for PR? TIA.


I believe that Gaston is acquiring convection as we speak...

Floater- Visible Loop
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2138. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON...LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HERMINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HERMINE
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Blog is always slow in the mornings lol
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I wake up and read that Gaston is back. Then I look at the floaters and see that he's just a little blob of clouds. Can someone please tell me what's the forecast for Gaston for PR? TIA.
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2135. Gearsts
Quoting Hhunter:


interesting
Stop it is really annoying now.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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