Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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2285. tkeith
Quoting kmanislander:


More often than good LOL
lol...like me ya got your moneys worth :)
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On Hermine, is that a re-positioning of the center at 23N/96W? That was the NHC's 1800Z position forecast. If so, it will spend less time over water. That probably doesn't change the flood potential much, though, and that's the big impact we'd expect from Hermine.
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Quoting tkeith:
2274. kmanislander 7:50 AM CDT on September 06, 2010Easterly tradewinds...thanks Kman.

BTW did ya hit em good yesterday?

I've missed my weekly game two weeks in a row :(


More often than good LOL
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


My issue with this picture is I don't see Hermine making that much of a Westward move for her next position. IMO. I see her a little further North of that so wouldn't that move the cone a little more into Texas?

yup that would do it.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.6 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -73.9C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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I'm out for now. Have a great day.
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2279. tkeith
2274. kmanislander 7:50 AM CDT on September 06, 2010Easterly tradewinds...thanks Kman.

BTW did ya hit em good yesterday?

I've missed my weekly game two weeks in a row :(
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AL, 10, 201009061145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2260N, 9540W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, SAB, GS, IM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO PT PA=30 NMI
AL, 10, 201009061145, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2270N, 9530W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, GR, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.4 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.5 PAT=
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2277. IKE
Gaston, at this time, looks headed on a track to Puerto Rico....Link

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Recon goes in at 11 am today into Hermine.
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Quoting tkeith:
2239. kmanislander

what's the deal with 63W to 75W? History? or is there some atmospheric anomoly there?

(the Bermuda triangle of tropical systems)?
Not with a storm that far north.
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Quoting tkeith:
2239. kmanislander

what's the deal with 63W to 75W? History? or is there some atmospheric anomoly there?

(the Bermuda triangle of tropical systems)?


The Eastern Caribbean has historically been an inhospitable place for weak systems due to strong Easterly trade winds that blow through that area. John Hope, the well known met who worked on TWC for many years, had a "rule" that basically said if you didn't see a system become a TD before it got into the Eastern Caribbean it typically wouldn't become one until it got to the Western Caribbean.

Out of curiosity I once looked at the data for every system that became a TD in the Eastern Caribbean for over 30 years to see what the statistics were and there were so few that the numbers certainly validated his rule.

If you consider that about half those that formed there came from the tail end of fronts in Oct. and Nov. that tells us that only about 4 or 5 TDs have ever been classified in the Eastern Caribbean for more than 30 years for ALL seasons.

Whether Gaston does so or not will not change the significance of the statistics.
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Quoting Chicklit:


My issue with this picture is I don't see Hermine making that much of a Westward move for her next position. IMO. I see her a little further North of that so wouldn't that move the cone a little more into Texas?
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Quoting IKE:


Good luck to everyone in northern Mexico and southern Texas with Hermine. Sorry about the canceled cookouts.

Looks like the 2 primary tracks so far this season are.... Hermine, Alex, TD2 area...and....Danielle, Earl, Gaston, maybe even Colin, track area.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
2270. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Good luck to everyone in northern Mexico and southern Texas with Hermine. Sorry about the canceled cookouts.

Looks like the 2 primary tracks so far this season are.... Hermine, Alex, TD2 area...and....Danielle, Earl, Gaston, maybe even Colin, track area.
that's good for me, cause I'mStuck in the middle ...
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Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting aquak9:
(sneaks in, nods head at folks, sits at far end of counter)
Waitress walks over and pours a cuppa Joe, half/half on the side.
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2267. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Good morning everyone. I have added a few movies to my Hurricane Earl video library. They can be found here:

Earl Videos

Also, my live camera is sill up and running. It looks like we may get some weather from xGaston you can check it out here:

Live Camera From St. Maarten

Enjoy the video library and camera. Last night the camera got a great sunset. One of the best I have seen in a while.

Cheers
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Quoting Chicklit:

The problem with Gaston is where it is and the amount of time it could spend over water (fuel).
Hermine is strengthening yet doesn't have as long over water.
Still some mountainous areas in north Mexico could get up to a foot of rain so Hermine will bring serious flooding there. It will also probably affect areas already impacted by Alex which is bad news. It would be better for it to go further north and help out the agricultural areas in southwestern TX.
What's interesting about TD9 (formerly known as Gaston) is its potential, so everyone's watching its every move.


I agree with you as well. Gaston could also be a threat to me in the future. I just hate these storms that develop like this over night and then not much time to prepare. Well, we have all the stocked items here we should but the boarding up at home and work if needed. Just not much time. Thanks for your response as well.
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2262. Gearsts
Quoting tkeith:
2239. kmanislander

what's the deal with 63W to 75W? History? or is there some atmospheric anomoly there?

(the Bermuda triangle of tropical systems)?
lol
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1741
2261. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
probably gonna be some big 'ol Texas BBQ's rained on today...


Good luck to everyone in northern Mexico and southern Texas with Hermine. Sorry about the canceled cookouts.

Looks like the 2 primary tracks so far this season are.... Hermine, Alex, TD2 area...and....Danielle, Earl, Gaston, maybe even Colin, track area.
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Quoting JLPR2:


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.



My bad !

Thanks for pointing this out, I live and learn

Many thanks

Dan
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Morning all. I think ex Gaston will be real player in few days, I have the COC around 16.9N/56W, I think he'll be reinstated as TS Gaston by at least 8am tomorrow, if not possibly by 11pm tonight, jmo.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


What does that mean??
That is the latest coordinates/pressure and winds.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
2196:

Not necessarily.

Remember, we've seen "dead" storms regenerate and/or form from the remnants of previously dead storms, even north of the big islands and in the Bahamas. Andrew and Katrina ring a bell?


They ring a bell, a china gong, and a C4 explosion
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2256. Gearsts
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-174N-555W.
Spammer what does that mean?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1741
2255. tkeith
2239. kmanislander

what's the deal with 63W to 75W? History? or is there some atmospheric anomoly there?

(the Bermuda triangle of tropical systems)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 400 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N54W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL REMAINS WITH A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE
FROM JUST W OF THE LOW NEAR 17N55W TO 22N60W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT MOVES W AT 10-15 KT.
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD BEGIN TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INTERESTS IN THOSE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
If everyone thinks Gaston is dead, then why all the talk on it? It is just the same posts over and over lol. What about Hermine? At least she is a threat in the next 24-36 hours here in Texas.

The problem with Gaston is where it is and the amount of time it could spend over water (fuel).
Hermine is strengthening yet doesn't have as long over water.
Still some mountainous areas in north Mexico could get up to a foot of rain so Hermine will bring serious flooding there. It will also probably affect areas already impacted by Alex which is bad news. It would be better for it to go further north and help out the agricultural areas in southwestern TX.
What's interesting about TD9 (formerly known as Gaston) is its potential, so everyone's watching its every move.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11328
Quoting tropicfreak:


What does that mean??


All it needs to be a TD is convection that is sustained.
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2251. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
2250. Relix
Quoting serialteg:


Bleak for whom?

It is dangerous to write off such systems

You'll be better off being here until it hits and then going to the supermarket for the price markups :)


I am just to pessimist/bearish on Gaston XD!
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2722
Morning everyone. Tell Hermine that we are happy she is staying away from Orlando even knowing we just opened The Wizarding World of Harry Potter here.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-174N-555W.


What does that mean??
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I'm with losttomorrows - I think Hermine will pull and Humberto and rapidly intensify. It appears to be doing just that. It really got its act together last night, and repositioned its COC to the North and east a bit. I'm waiting for the 11 a.m. advisory - If it's at 60, and still moving north, I may consider boarding up my north and east facing windows. Key will be the direction and wind speed at that time. If it is rapidly intensifying, we will have little time to prepare. watch and wait right now.
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Quoting StormW:


Sarcasm Flag: ON
Ok, I stand corrected! LOL
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Does anybody have a calculator? Have we had more hurricane days or more red circle days this year? It just seemed that in past seasons, once we get that that red circle a TD soon followed.

I thought we would have below average SAL this year because of increased precipitation in the sahel region of Africa. Predicting SAL ahead of Hurricane Season is pretty much a crap-shot. Ex-Gaston is probably pretty close to setting the red circle days record. Was it 93L or 94L that was also fighting dry air and was borderline TD for days?

Remember how Alex intensified up until landfall? Ditto for Her-Mean. Not a lot of time but intensity can surprise to the upside.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


I agree. However, storms like Gaston (Earl) for example went through a process of strengthening that was unbelievable. Gaston is close to land and so is Hermine, and this blog is a discussion about Tropical Weather so it can go either way.


I agree with you. I guess I just want to see more on Hermine since she is coming in just South of me. Wanting to know how far North people think she may actually get. Thanks for you response.
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.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-174N-555W.
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.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-174N-555W.
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.09LGASTON.30kts-1008mb-174N-555W.
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Quoting druseljic:


Don't go out on a limb like this much, but I disagree with this post. Time will tell...for now I still think it bears watching.


Anything the nhc gives 70% probability of formation to is worth watching especially if its headed to you
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Quoting Gearsts:
Gaston is rapidly closing in on 60 W and once it reaches 63 the odds of regeneration fall historically until 75 W


That statement is factually correct and even if Gaston were to get reclassified before 75 W it would still be correct. Over the past 35 years or so only about 9 systems have ever been classified as TDs between 63 and 75 W including almost half of which formed from fronts late in the season.

I never said it was impossible but historically it is improbable. You will also notice that I added one caveat. Gaston may still have a cosed circulation. If he does then reclassification is merely a matter of developing the requisite amount of convection and winds to go with it. Gaston is part the way there, so to speak.
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Pretty healthy strengthening Tropical Storm.
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
If everyone thinks Gaston is dead, then why all the talk on it? It is just the same posts over and over lol. What about Hermine? At least she is a threat in the next 24-36 hours here in Texas.


I agree. However, storms like Gaston (Earl) for example went through a process of strengthening that was unbelievable. Gaston is close to land and so is Hermine, and this blog is a discussion about Tropical Weather so it can go either way.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.