Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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Gaston doesn't know where to produce convection; it seems.

It's all over the place! Now convection is in the SW quadrant!

If all of this could consolodate near the center, this would certainly be a Tropical System.

Floater- Visible Loop
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Admin -

Please ban ozzyman236. Thanks.
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2383. Hhunter
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the coc of GASTON is reforming under the ball of convection 16.2N 56W
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Ut oh IKE, she is looking amazing right now. Not a system you want to mess with.
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Recon on its way to Hermine.

Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
To be perfectly honest I could see 75 mph at peak.. already up to 50 per ATCF files and down to 998 mb.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
Quoting tkeith:
Hey Hanna :)

I'll be watchin Hermine in between bathing Babybacks with BBQ sauce today!

(try saying that 3 times in a row real fast)

mmmmmmmmmmmmmm..my mouth is watering....will be enjoying some of that later today...have a great day!
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2376. IKE
Still see a spin with Gaston now...just not as defined...

Models on him...Link
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2374. tkeith
Quoting hurricanehanna:

lmao.....hey Tkeith! I hate seeing these things in our backyard....but WE know what they can do!
Hey Hanna :)

I'll be watchin Hermine in between bathing Babybacks with BBQ sauce today!

(try saying that 3 times in a row real fast)
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You can tell it's a "Holiday" from some of the posts this morning.........BBL........ :)
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2371. Relix
Quoting washingtonian115:
Igor is coming......watch out.....


Fun Fact: It should trek west most of his way while being so close to the south and then when close to the islands he should feel the effects of the trough. Of course this is WAY too far but you get the idea.
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That name is just forebodding - "Igor!....Yes Master....muhahahahahaha" - A bit over the top, but yet effective. I do not like that name.


Quoting washingtonian115:
Igor is coming......watch out.....
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Quoting tkeith:
lol hermine will make landfall as tropical storm no big deal..a rain maker for the texas coast..the tropics are quiet...
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

have your other 10 comments been as useful as this one?

lmao.....hey Tkeith! I hate seeing these things in our backyard....but WE know what they can do!
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Igor is coming......watch out.....
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Flooding really is the main thing.

This system has a *lot* of water.

Double the rainfall predicted than Bonnie, Colin etc.

May yet increase too.
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Wow all, Carribean/GOM/Bahamas.....any of these area can develop come like Hermine this quick. I know you are all going to jump on me when I say this, but looking at sheer yesterday in GOM was not that favorable for quick development....yet everything else was and boom, we have Hermine


Quoting IKE:
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2363. tkeith
lol hermine will make landfall as tropical storm no big deal..a rain maker for the texas coast..the tropics are quiet...
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: September 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 11

have your other 10 comments been as useful as this one?
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Quoting StormW:


TROPICAL STORM HERMINE/REMNANT LOW GASTON SYNOPSIS SEP. 06, 2010 ISSUED 9:25 A.M.


Thanks Storm....
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Quoting IKE
Not that I still don't do it though:)
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2360. Relix
Quoting Goldenblack:
Its okay Relix....we had this conversation twice yesterday, and he is sticking to his guns.....gotta respect it, even if...



Hahahaha =P
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As far as the CONUS so far, while erosion was the big issue from Earl (being on the weaker side), Hermaine looking really good this morning and will have a big impact rainwise (and windwise on the coast) on Texas.....I have no idea what will happen with the remnants of Gaston but so far so good for CONUS.
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Its okay Relix....we had this conversation twice yesterday, and he is sticking to his guns.....gotta respect it, even if...

Quoting Relix:


Huh? Its impossible. The High pressure steering is west and WSW
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2357. IKE
ozzyman236...poof....107 and counting.
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Storm W, thanks for your synopis as always. Each time I learn something new. Houston, TX hear, so always paying close attention to anything in the GOM. You said shift right in future model (TX/MX) border and I agree, but is there anything you see that gives is a more right shift and moves it up the coast even further.
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE/REMNANT LOW GASTON SYNOPSIS SEP. 06, 2010 ISSUED 9:25 A.M.


Nice, Thanks StormW looks like you got a handle on it.
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2352. Ryuujin
Quoting 757weather:
haha i must say that i have learned that it is not wise to disagree with them though.
The NHC is only right when they agree with someone's forecast a, but they're wrong if they don't.
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2350. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
2341. IKE 8:28 AM CDT on September 06, 2010

if it were not for the proximity to land this storm could be BIG trouble...


I agree. The flooding may be a real problem.
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2349. Gearsts
Again, 60W is my benchmark, and will tell the tale of either just skirting the Greater Antilles (north possibly), or entering the Caribbean.:D I knew it...lol
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1992
2348. Walnut
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE/REMNANT LOW GASTON SYNOPSIS SEP. 06, 2010 ISSUED 9:25 A.M.
Thanks for the update. Means a lot to us in South Texas!
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2347. scott39
Thanks for your Synopsis StormW.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
2346. Relix
Quoting BDADUDE:
Looks like Gaston will be making the turn to the WNW soon.


Huh? Its impossible. The High pressure steering is west and WSW
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2345. tkeith
2341. IKE 8:28 AM CDT on September 06, 2010

if it were not for the proximity to land this storm could be BIG trouble...
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Storm,
Is the ridge set up now so that the current waves coming off Africa will go more west and not recurve?
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2343. IKE
Quoting 757weather:
haha i must say that i have learned that it is not wise to disagree with them though.


Getting harder to do so on Gaston....

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Quoting StormW:


DOUBLE POOF!


Storm, do you think Hermine will make landfall in Mexico or Texas? How strong do you think she will be?
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2341. IKE
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Quoting IKE:


I will admit their forecast for Gaston hasn't been the best.
haha i must say that i have learned that it is not wise to disagree with them though.
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2339. tkeith
Quoting StormW:


DOUBLE POOF!
that's harsh...lmao :)
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2337. BDADUDE
Looks like Gaston will be making the turn to the WNW soon.
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Good morning from upstate New York. Hermine looks impressive right now, and seems to have a little more time over water than was thought yesterday. With her current rate of organization and strengthening, a category 1 storm is not out of the question. Hopefully everyone is the warning area is taking precautions.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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