Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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2435. Hhunter
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2434. tkeith
Quoting Quadrantid:


Having seen a couple of things in Russian, I think it's meant to be Yea-gor, no?
I've got a friend originally from the Ukraine. He pronounces his name (ee-gore)
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Wow CybrTeddy, that core is strengthening rapidly. Normally you would find hints of an eyewall in a low end category one hurricane, and not in a weak tropical storm.


I can name a few systems that have, Humberto and Gustav for example.
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2432. Patrap
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HH enroute to HerMean



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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2417.

The air is going to moisten up. And once it moves into the Caribbean I don't see how it would run out of water??
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Igor e-GOR
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Quadrantid:


Having seen a couple of things in Russian, I think it's meant to be Yea-gor, no?


It's "eee" "gore"
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With Hermine, business is about to pick up.
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sorry ozzy, but you just got added to my iggy list....

you join the wonderful ranks of STORMNO, JFV, RecordSeason, and other wonderful trolls.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hermines putting it into high gear, the core has become much tighter since 5 this morning. Hints of a eyewall already.



I remember looking at the structure last night and I was surprised at how well organized then TD 10 was, and I was pretty sure that the intensity forecasts were too low by then.
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131 knots

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
2423. tkeith
Quoting want2lrn:
Gonna take a stab at it....23N 96W? Please no stick throwing and don't boo me off the stage. trying to see if i am looking at it correctly!
that's as good as I could give ya :)
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Quoting RecordSeason:
2301:

So is it "Ee-Gor" or is it "eye-gor"?


Having seen a couple of things in Russian, I think it's meant to be Yea-gor, no?
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Wow CybrTeddy, that core is strengthening rapidly. Normally you would find hints of an eyewall in a low end category one hurricane, and not in a weak tropical storm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Gonna take a stab at it....23N 96W? Please no stick throwing and don't boo me off the stage. trying to see if i am looking at it correctly!
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The 12z LGEM takes Gaston to just short of Category 5 status...again.

AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 0, 174N, 555W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 12, 174N, 585W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 24, 173N, 616W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 36, 172N, 645W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 48, 170N, 670W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 60, 168N, 692W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 72, 167N, 711W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 84, 167N, 728W, 107, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 96, 168N, 745W, 118, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 108, 171N, 762W, 125, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 120, 175N, 781W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
2418. Patrap
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Quoting RecordSeason:
...

Mother of God...

From 0600z...

TWO CHIPS ensemble members have Gaston as a 160kts (184mph) hurricane eventually, and a third goes above 120kts and is obscured by the chart's key.

the DSHIP also takes it close to 120kts...

Intensity models


THIS is why the NHC has not discounted Gaston...



there's no way you actually believe those models, do you?


Gaston's remnant low hasn't even mustered enough convection to attain depression status, and the models said regeneration into a hurricane would already occur by now.


Actually, Gaston has not only not become better organized, but it barely even looks like it has a low pressure center now, further decreasing chances for redevelopment.


The thing the models fail to recognize right now, is that dry air is king over Gaston since it first was born. Dry air now rules with an iron fist in the remnant low of Gaston, and therefore I would only give Gaston a 30% of redevelopment.


The only chance this dang thing could regenerate is if it runs into a much more moist atmosphere, by the time it does, it will be too close the Caribbean land masses, therefore it will run out of water, and anything beyond weak T.S. is unlikely even long term for regeneration.



The models are only seeing explosive development, because water is very warm, and shear is low, however because they are computers, and they fail to recognize the simple and obvious for why Gaston does not want to regenerate.
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2416. tkeith
Quoting want2lrn:


S___ Wild Azz Guess, dont know the first word...ballpark where would it be?


scientific WAG :)

give me sec and I'll give you my WAG...

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Quoting StormW:


No ma'am...working today! And YOU are more than welcome!


:) Try and get a little bar b que in....
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The 41040 buoy did switch to a west wind last night in response to Gaston.

I'll be it very light. or is that albeit

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml
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2413. Hhunter
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Hermines putting it into high gear, the core has become much tighter since 5 this morning. Hints of a eyewall already.


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Lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin.

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2409. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


+100

:) Good Morning Storm! Guess you aren't getting a day off :( Thanks for keeping us informed as always!!
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Quoting tkeith:
it's a bit of a SWAG at the moment but the recon mission headed to Hermine will give a good fix on the center.


S___ Wild Azz Guess, dont know the first word...ballpark where would it be?
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Yeah, extreme236, I expect a 70knot hurricane.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Be very interesting to see what the centre fix is. She seems to be moving faster than originally anticipated.

That's about the only break on intensity as proximity to land doesn't appear to make any real difference.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Looks like there's a pretty decent chance that Hermine could become a hurricane.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
Hiya StormW!!! Long time no see! I did read you update...as always great work! How are you? Any labor day plans?
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Hermine is a good example of why people on this blog always stress "be prepared"....you just never know during the season when and where.
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2397. tkeith
Quoting want2lrn:
Sorry for the dumb question, but here goes. Where is the COC for Hermine? I really am trying to identify it, but can't. Newbie here. TIA
it's a bit of a SWAG at the moment but the recon mission headed to Hermine will give a good fix on the center.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Ozzyman is just your typical troll. Just ignore him.


I am, but he needs to be banned.
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Quoting Hhunter:
I'm actually surprised at how fast Hermine developed.It looks pretty impressive as well.Wouldn't be surprised to see a 75mph hurricane out of this.
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Recon will give us a much better idea of what Hermine is truly like right now. Great and i mean great structure with her right now. Spiral banding, outflow, outflow channel or channels, low low wind shear, high, high SSTs and TCHP, and a strong present CDO over the circulation. All indicative of a rapidly strengthening tropical cyclone. She could very well become a 80mph hurricane, like Humberto had done in 2007.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 246 Comments: 3970
Quoting AllStar17:
Admin -

Please ban ozzyman236. Thanks.


Ozzyman is just your typical troll. Just ignore him.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
If Gaston averages 13mph, the timing of the explosive intensification forecast by CHIPS would be just SE or S of Jamaica.



That is where Wilma was when she gained strength before her first landfall in Mexico.
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Sorry for the dumb question, but here goes. Where is the COC for Hermine? I really am trying to identify it, but can't. Newbie here. TIA
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I am now expecting Hermine to be a hurricane prior to moving inland...60kts at least if its not a hurricane.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
It'll be interesting to see what recon. finds.
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There were some near 40 knot gusts just north of where Hermine was last evening.

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12z official track for remnant low Gaston takes it south of Jamaica.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15945
Hermine is far more organised than it was even just a few hours ago. The COC is well under the heaviest of the convection rather than on the periphery as it was the morning.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Gaston doesn't know where to produce convection; it seems.

It's all over the place! Now convection is in the SW quadrant!

If all of this could consolodate near the center, this would certainly be a Tropical System.

Floater- Visible Loop
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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