Gaston still a threat to redevelop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010

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For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Sunrise Surf was cranking (RIWXPhoto)
Sunrise Surf was cranking
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (RIWXPhoto)
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI

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2485. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Hermine Update..Latest Video Blog.


I was going to say...looks headed for the coast.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting aislinnpaps:


True, but if you live where a hurricane can happen, you should be always watching. Humberto blew up overnight, but Hermine has been there and talked about for a couple of days now, so I would hope people down there are watching if they are in the USA. Unfortunately, in Mexico there will be some who don't know. : (
Some people don't have access to internet or T.V down in thos types of countries.
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2479.

I respect your difference in opinion, and yes I do see what you're seeing, but I don't believe it is necessarily correct.
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HermineLoop
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2480. Wots
Quoting Quadrantid:


Having seen a couple of things in Russian, I think it's meant to be Yea-gor, no?


Igor :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMnD4Qs6GUo

oops,
already posted...some of us showing our age!
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Quoting extreme236:


I understand that not everything system strengthens significantly obviously, but I do not see how it doesn't have the ability to do so. It is only being inhibited by dry air now, but that goes away in the Caribbean.



Alright well you have your thoughts and I have mine, I was just seeing if you could see what I was, but I guess not.

That's ok though, people will always disagree!


By the way though, I have been obsessed with meteorology all my life, and am going for a MET degree at Florida State, so I am constantly being exposed to weather knowledge. Plus I have always had a knack for weather observation.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Igor wll be a "monster" of a storm.If that ridge stays in place he could move westward.But we're talking about a storm that hasn't even formed yet.


We're usually talking about storms that haven't formed yet :)
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TS Hermine Update..Latest Video Blog.
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Quoting StormW:
Pronunciation of Storm Names


Hi Storm W. do you have a report this morning. I went to your site and didn't see anything.
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Yeah, Jamaica will kill Gaston just like Florida killed Katrina pfffft.
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All the high voltage linemen headed home from the east coast are prepared to head back out anytime either of the two storms decide to hit the US. Any chance that'll happen? My husband (a lineman) keeps calling and asking me as he heads back from Long Island.
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2472. tkeith
2467. Jedkins01

looks like you got a fan club too...
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I don't think she will be at "minimal" tropical storm strength. I do think it will be a T.S., but one of 60-70mph when she makes land-fall near the Tex/Mex boarder.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



hey look, I'm just trying to inject a dose of some good old reality, not every system explodes in a active hurricane season.

Most tropical systems often give some indication whether they could become strong cyclones, Gaston just does not have the ability to intensify into a significant threat, no matter how good conditions become.


I won't rule anything out, and say its impossible to develop significantly, but the chances are quite low that Gaston will ever make any big come back. So its just not worth really getting excited about.


How could you say Gaston does not have the ability to strengthen? You can't say until he has totally favorable conditions. We all know dry air is inhibiting any significant development. But to say he does not have the ability is outrageous and comical.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3718
Quoting Jedkins01:



hey look, I'm just trying to inject a dose of some good old reality, not every system explodes in a active hurricane season.

Most tropical systems often give some indication whether they could become strong cyclones, Gaston just does not have the ability to intensify into a significant threat, no matter how good conditions become.


I won't rule anything out, and say its impossible to develop significantly, but the chances are quite low that Gaston will ever make any big come back. So its just not worth really getting excited about.


I understand that not everything system strengthens significantly obviously, but I do not see how it doesn't have the ability to do so. It is only being inhibited by dry air now, but that goes away in the Caribbean.
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Quoting extreme236:
2451.

Um, Jamaica wouldn't kill a system lol. And there is quite a distince between where it would enter the Caribbean and Mexico...were talking days of time. Hispanola/Cuba is a different story, but the models are trending away from Hispanola.



hey look, I'm just trying to inject a dose of some good old reality, not every system explodes in a active hurricane season.

Most tropical systems often give some indication whether they could become strong cyclones, Gaston just does not have the ability to intensify into a significant threat, no matter how good conditions become.


I won't rule anything out, and say its impossible to develop significantly, but the chances are quite low that Gaston will ever make any big come back. So its just not worth really getting excited about.
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2466. tkeith
Quoting PELLSPROG:
Virginie vir-JIN-ee !!!!!!!!! Who has a name like this ??
yeah, whoever named the storms this year got a hold of the wrong pan of brownies that day....
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Humberto was a surprise while Gustav was a nightmare.Hermine can go either way....


True, but if you live where a hurricane can happen, you should be always watching. Humberto blew up overnight, but Hermine has been there and talked about for a couple of days now, so I would hope people down there are watching if they are in the USA. Unfortunately, in Mexico there will be some who don't know. : (
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Quoting Chicklit:
FrankensteinmeetsIgor
Looks like Igor wll be a "monster" of a storm.If that ridge stays in place he could move westward.But we're talking about a storm that hasn't even formed yet.
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Virginie vir-JIN-ee !!!!!!!!! Who has a name like this ??
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Cybr, wouldn't Wilma be another example?

I went through Dr. Master's blog yesterday archive on Wilma and it is amazing how much everyone was caught off guard by her explosive deepening. Record deepening. Also Dr. Masters also mentioned how her structure at the time of a low end category one hurricane, was amazing with a well established CDO, outflow and banding. Amazing structure and once the hurricane hunters started flying into her how much her pressure had dropped and there was a shadow really in recon obs before they measured the 882mb reading and Dr. Masters said that she could have been much, much stronger at some point when they weren't flying inside of her circulation. She started off with such a broad and large circulation, but tightened to a 2nm wide eye. Simply such an amazing storm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3718
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Caribbean Cruiser?

Looks like it.
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FrankensteinmeetsIgor

Espanol
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2451.

Um, Jamaica wouldn't kill a system lol. And there is quite a distince between where it would enter the Caribbean and Mexico...were talking days of time. Hispanola/Cuba is a different story, but the models are trending away from Hispanola.
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Caribbean Cruiser?

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I can name a few systems that have, Humberto and Gustav for example.
Humberto was a surprise while Gustav was a nightmare.Hermine can go either way....
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Quoting StormW:
Pronunciation of Storm Names


haha....cleaned this discussion up pretty quick....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Imagine if that actually happened (which it almost guaranteed wont), Belize would get 2 Category 5s in 3 years.


Dean hit Mexico at landfall, so with the northern quadrants over Quintana Roo.

I expect Belize wouldn't have got Cat 5 sustained winds.

However, it'd be bad to be close to that area.

Also, not just for where that track would it be (also very unlikely) in terms of landfall, but after. Guatemala is just behind and they've been constantly drenched for months.

A decaying major hurricane over them would be devastating.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting extreme236:
2417.

The air is going to moisten up. And once it moves into the Caribbean I don't see how it would run out of water??



Either Jamaica, Hispanola, Cuba, or Mexico could all end any chances of Ex-Gaston being a "little engine that could"

not everything ends out like the kids cartoons say in life you know, lol. Therefore, Ex-Gaston will likely remain, the little engine that couldn't! lol

I'm not sure what Caribbean you're looking at, but the one I'm looking at is surrounded by landmasses completely, accept the Yucatan Channel, but Ex-Gaston will continue due west. Even if it felt a northward pull towards the gulf, it would be snuffed out over Cuba while attempting to turn north.
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Quoting Quadrantid:


I swear in Night Watch, Igor was being pronounced with a marked y-sound at the start - more yay than eee :D But I'm likely wrong :)


Well I've never heard Igor being pronounced but I looked it up on google and it said "eee" so maybe the y in front is just an accent thing. XD
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Very strong convection.
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2448. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Gaston
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







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Quoting Quadrantid:


I swear in Night Watch, Igor was being pronounced with a marked y-sound at the start - more yay than eee :D But I'm likely wrong :)


A great film.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting IKE:


Heading it toward the Yucatan and Belize.


Imagine if that actually happened (which it almost guaranteed wont), Belize would get 2 Category 5s in 3 years.
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WOOO HOOOO, that ladies and gentlemen would be progression! Thanks TKEITH
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2433 cybertddy

i think claudette also had a hint of an eye wall going on as well.
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EEK GORE !!!!!!!!
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gaston has no shot
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Hermine is taking full advatage of her surroundings.And what's going on over by he coast of Africa reminds me of the ivan,and Jeanne trio 6 years ago.Igor is coming off,s likley to develope with future Julia right in behind him.That's just my take.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


It's "eee" "gore"


I swear in Night Watch, Igor was being pronounced with a marked y-sound at the start - more yay than eee :D But I'm likely wrong :)
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Morning everyone...Happy Labor Day to you all.
Looks like Texas will get the rain they needed..just hope it doesn't cause too much flooding & Hermine doesn't ramp up wind wise too much before landfall.
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2436. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The 12z LGEM takes Gaston to just short of Category 5 status...again.

AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 0, 174N, 555W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 12, 174N, 585W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 24, 173N, 616W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 36, 172N, 645W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 48, 170N, 670W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 60, 168N, 692W, 69, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 72, 167N, 711W, 89, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 84, 167N, 728W, 107, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 96, 168N, 745W, 118, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 108, 171N, 762W, 125, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 09, 2010090612, 03, LGEM, 120, 175N, 781W, 131, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0
,


Heading it toward the Yucatan and Belize. That would have to be a strong high for that track at that intensity to verify.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2435. Hhunter
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.