Gaston still a threat to redevelop
For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. An extratropical storm absorbed Tropical Storm Earl last night, bringing an end to the 11-day life of the 2010 season's longest-lived storm. While Earl was mostly a non-event for North Carolina and New England, the storm gave Nova Scotia a solid pounding, reminding us of what could have easily happened to New England had the forecast track deviated slightly to the left. Kudos go to the computer models and NHC, who successfully predicted the path of Earl very accurately four days in advance. As we approach the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs on September 10, there are no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic. Indeed, we have two systems that could become tropical depressions in the next day, and we also have model predictions of another storm to come late in the week.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.
Gaston near tropical depression status again
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next three days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment, or moisten its environment on its own by generating enough heavy thunderstorms. Gaston has managed to develop more heavy thunderstorms near its center of circulation late this morning, but the amount of dry air it is battling is formidable. Even if Gaston does manage to become a tropical depression today, development will be slow over the next few days, due to the dry air. When Gaston passes over or just to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands early Tuesday morning, the storm is unlikely to have more than 50 mph winds. More significant development is possible later in the week, as the atmosphere should be moister for Gaston. Gaston may threaten Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday, depending upon the storm's interaction with a trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast later this week. The earlier Gaston develops into a tropical storm, the more likely it is to "feel" the upper-level winds of the approaching trough, and curve more to the northwest. The HWRF model predicts Gaston will develop by Monday, and pass just northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands Tuesday morning. The GFDL model, on the other hand, delays development until Wednesday, keeping Gaston in the Caribbean. The GFDL has Gaston hitting Jamaica as a strong tropical storm on Friday morning. However, the GFDL forecast is dubious, because on Wednesday and Thursday, Gaston may have an encounter with the high mountains of the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti, Hispaniola, which could easily destroy a system as fragile as Gaston. Gaston has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC.
Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms (90L) has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows that this disturbance is disorganized, but has some modest spin to it. The disturbance is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and should bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model. The main impediment to development will be the limited time 90L has over water; the storm will be ashore by Tuesday, which doesn't give it much time to develop.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and NOGAPS models are predicting development on Thursday of a tropical wave that will emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Next post
I'll have an update Monday morning.
Jeff Masters
Post Hurricane Earl surf photos at Newport, RI (
RIWXPhoto)
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If trends continue -- northward at average moving speed of ~2.4mph(~3.9k/h) with a shoreline angling northwestward (~45degrees) -- 90L will still be within ~80miles(~128.8kilometres) of land... which doesn't leave a whole heck of a lotta elbow room for a TropicalCyclone to grow in.
Copy&paste 18.4n95.8w, 18.6n95.7w-18.9n95.7w, 18.9n95.7w-19.1n95.7w, 19.1n95.7w-19.2n95.6w, 19.2n95.6w-19.4n95.6w, mid, bro into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24hours.
If anything, 90L might achieve TropicalDepression status maybe tomorrow at around DiurnalMaximum. And if that hypothetical TD10 continues to poke along, another day before TropicalStorm status is reached.
And I'd put out another guess* that exGaston and 90L are in a neck'n'neck race to become TS.Gaston and TS.Hermione respectively.
* My expertise at reading the atmospheric patterns is too low to allow prediction: ie an estimate of the future, or even a decent guesstimate.
We are watching Gaston closely here.
60%*
THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH
Thanks for the update!
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
NOUS42 KNHC 041330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT SAT 04 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-096
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. PROBABLE 6-HRLY FIXES ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON
NEAR 16.5N 55.0W AT 06/1200Z.
B. A G-IV FLIGHT FOR 07/0000Z.
C. POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 22.5N 96.5W AT 06/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 9 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 05/1000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
+100. The amount of space and energy wasted here on juvenile discussions about Juliet Foxtrot Victor is completely ridiculous. Mind-boggling even. I've seen far more comments critical of the guy than I ever have seen from the guy himself. Give it a rest, already, would you guys?
3:27 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Fixed, thanks!
Jeff
Wait what?
I think the earliest it would be re-classified would be late Monday or Tuesday.
Friday:
Did I miss Hermine?
Edit
Or is the thinking that 90L is going to become Hermine?
I would say tonight if it holds together and increased convective cover, but the trend seems to be this season for not much to happen until 55 W with these storms. Chances are more than likely for cloud tops to warm than to not.
Oh man... don't tell me thats another expression like "word"
Gaston has been declared dead how many times now.. 4-5 more? The core is persistent... if it ever gets it together... watch out I think.
Relatively speaking not much changed, other areas gained more while others lost. It is natural fluctuations.
90L will become Hermine.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA ALONG 9W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND THE WAVE IS
VOID OF ANY CONVECTION.
...ITCZ...
A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA NEAR 20N16W ALONG
16N22W 10N26W TO 6N35W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS 6N39W ALONG
11N55W TO 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
A 60 NM RADIUS OF 19N22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE
FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 17W-21W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 30W-55W.
Sorry my mind is a little fizzy right now.
I understand now.
And no it is not another phrase like "word".
I said "wait what?" as in I was confused about what you posted.
Anyways yes Gaston will be one to watch once development occurs which should be in the next 48 hrs. If it heads into the Caribbean and misses Hisp, look out.
The wave has also increased in thunderstorm activity since 8:05am EDT.
Thanks.
I get easily confused:0)
Now get off your computers and go outside!
We know.
I thought they didn't do those on weekends?
Well some people may not...
LOL
Thats obviously false.
True.
lol
The long-range GFS ensembles take it through the Gulf. Not really reliable at the moment though.
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