Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Earl hits Nova Scotia but spares New England; Gaston still a threat
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010 +2
Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph at 12:48pm AST this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Winds were stronger at McNabs Island, in Halifax Harbor, where sustained winds of 64 mph, gusting to 76 mph, occurred at noon AST.

Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. The peak wind gust in Massachusetts may have been the 58 mph gust recorded on Cape Cod 5 miles south-southeast of Barnstable early this morning. Earl did bring some very high waves to New England; waves at the buoy 60 miles southeast of Nantucket peaked at 27 feet early this morning. Heavy rain from Earl--over five inches in some locations--caused localized flooding and road closures on Cape Cod and on Marthas Vineyard.


Figure 1. Hurricane Earl as seen from the International Space Station on Thursday, September 2, 2010. Image credit: NASA astronaut Douglas Wheelock.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall from Earl from the Cape Cod radar.

Gaston a threat to develop
Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. This dry air will continue to be a major impediment to development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 15 knots, for the next four days, then fall to the low range. The winds creating the shear are coming from the east, where a tongue of dry air has intruded. These easterly winds will be able to drive the dry air into Gaston's core, disrupting it, unless the storm can find a moister environment. It is also possible that Gaston may be able to protect its core by wrapping moisture around to its east side; recent visible satellite imagery shows a band of moisture wrapping around along Gaston's south side. If this process is successful, Gaston may have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression on Sunday. I suspect there is too much dry air in Gaston's environment for Gaston to develop into a tropical depression today. The atmosphere is moister near the Lesser Antilles Islands, and Gaston has a better chance of developing on Monday when it finds this moister environment. NHC is giving Gaston a 70% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Monday. The models are in fairly good agreement bringing Gaston though the central or northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday. The storm should then slow down and head more to the west-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday, in response to a large trough of low pressure expected to move off the U.S. East Coast. Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic might be at risk of a strike by a reborn Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, if the storm follows a more southerly track over the next few days.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance
A concentrated area of heavy thunderstorms has developed over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday, according to NHC. The disturbance is headed northwest at 5 - 10 mph, but could turn more to the north-northwest and bring heavy rains to the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model.

99L
A tropical wave (99L) near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwestward at about 10 mph. The wave has a bit of spin to it, but not much heavy thunderstorm activity. This system is under moderate wind shear, but is headed towards a region of high wind shear northwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. This shear will very likely destroy the disturbance by Tuesday. NHC is giving 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting development 3 - 6 days from now of a tropical wave that hasn't emerged from the coast of Africa yet.

Next post
I'll have an update by 1pm Sunday afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Hurricane Earl Waves (Murko)
Waves from Eleuthera, Bahamas, as Earl passed by as a cat 4 storm. The cliffs are about 30ft high.
Hurricane Earl Waves
Earl The Pearl (teach50)
Went down to Jones Beach again today. The beach was taken over by the power of the waves during high tide.
Earl The Pearl
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl Surf@ Newport RI # 4
Categories: Hurricane
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401. WeatherNerdPR 7:00 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464
402. kmanislander 7:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting Vero1:
kman, How is your WX station working out?


No problems so far. Very reliable and very accurate.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
403. BenBIogger 7:01 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
0z FIMZ
210hrs (long-Range)
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
404. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:02 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Gaston has survived the worst of the inhospitable conditions. Look for this to ramp up between 55 and 63 W.
steady as he goes all ahead full speed
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565
405. stormpetrol 7:03 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
I think when they(NHC) do upgrade , He will go straight back to TS status, over all his structure has improved, I see him as potentially high threat to the Eastern and Western Caribbean, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400
406. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:03 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
408. hydrus 7:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I was always taught to be kind to the older folks.
Two old men in a retirement village were sitting in the reading room and one said to the other, ''How do you really feel? I mean, you're 75 years old, how do you honestly feel?''

''Honestly, I feel like a new born baby. I've got no hair, no teeth, and I just peed myself.''....... See?..I,m kind...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 14297
409. Grothar 7:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:

The "old bloggers" know how to hit ctrl(plus,) and have installed Mozilla's "No Squint" program.


I know, but I can't find the Ctrl button. But thanks for the advice. Now I know how everyone can read the small print and I can't. Thanks for the tip. Here all this time, I thought Mozilla was a Japanese monster. (Actually, I never knew about the Ctrl+, it really works)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19544
410. Vero1 7:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


No problems so far. Very reliable and very accurate.


I hope you don't have to do a High Speed Wind test.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
411. PalmBeachWeather 7:04 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
So many experts here today........Levi32 is "NOW" the only one I rely on.. sorry (other expert) getting to rude to the layman) Won't mention the name.
Levi.. You are the MAN. I read, listen ,obtain what you say. No BS from you.
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412. MiamiHurricanes09 7:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Very good inflow noted on ex-Gaston.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 129 Comments: 19976
413. alpha992000 7:05 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


You can get an entire education on Argentina from the sides of a can of corned beef.


LOL
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414. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 7:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
XX/XX/09L
MARK
16.77N/46.81W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565
415. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
So many experts here today........Levi32 is "NOW" the only one I rely on.. sorry (other expert) getting to rude to the layman) Won't mention the name.
Levi.. You are the MAN. I read, listen ,obtain what you say. No BS from you.


What about StormW?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
416. tkeith 7:06 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting surfmom:

when you speak w/that tone - I suddenly get VERY alert
V E R Y ...... I zip the lip & pay attention


I likened Kman to "E.F. Hutton" yesterday...and for good reason Surfmom :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839
419. kimoskee 7:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting KanKunKid:


Maybe suite - mates or room mates or a non calorie sugar substitute?


LOL. or maybe both
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420. TropicalAnalystwx13 7:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 89 Comments: 25315
421. kmanislander 7:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting Vero1:


I hope you don't have to do a High Speed Wind test.


Maybe I'll get a couple of our local politicians to come by and blow on it !
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422. MiamiHurricanes09 7:08 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Slowly. But surely.

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423. TheDawnAwakening 7:09 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
exGaston, is developing some convection now on the eastern side of the circulation, granted its only a few high topped showers, but he is getting the environment a little more moist.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 215 Comments: 3159
425. kmanislander 7:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting tkeith:
Quoting surfmom:

when you speak w/that tone - I suddenly get VERY alert
V E R Y ...... I zip the lip & pay attention


I likened Kman to "E.F. Hutton" yesterday...and for good reason Surfmom :)


Hi there. Thanks for the thought. Sometimes I hope I'm wrong, if that makes sense LOL
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426. PalmBeachWeather 7:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Miamihurricanes.......Remember the name
"Terrelle Pryor"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
427. WeatherNerdPR 7:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting RecordSeason:
There is a very, very tiny, almost insignificant blob of convection starting on GAston's eastern side.

This probably isn't too important other than the possibility that it signifies weakening of the easterly shear the system has been experiencing.

I noticed that too. Actually there's one small blob, and one almost microscopic one. lol
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5464
428. SouthDadeFish 7:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
CIMSS shows shear over Gaston is only 5-10 knots. Click the shear square and you can overlap it with satellite imagery and more.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418
429. tkeith 7:11 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there. Thanks for the thought. Sometimes I hope I'm wrong, if that makes sense LOL
perfect sense...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8839
430. stormpetrol 7:12 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Gaston TD/TS by 8pm tonight I suspect!
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432. Chicklit 7:13 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Hi Everybody.


Is Gaston himself again?
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433. MississippiWx 7:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
According to the model runs we have, I just over-laid a potential cone with the TCHP Gaston will encounter:

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434. kmanislander 7:15 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
435. JLPR2 7:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting MississippiWx:
According to the model runs we have, I just over-laid a potential cone with the TCHP Gaston will encounter:



Once it reaches 50W intense convection should be easier to develop for ex-Gaston.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
436. Chicklit 7:16 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
...I guess so. 09L Gaston.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 10254
438. kmanislander 7:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting stormpetrol:
Gaston TD/TS by 8pm tonight I suspect!


Could happen. I thought perhaps 2 am tonight to give the convection time to stick. The NHC will not want to upgrade until they are sure. Nothing worse than having to downgrade a system less than 12 hrs after an upgrade !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
439. caneswatch 7:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Miamihurricanes.......Remember the name
"Terrelle Pryor"


They will, as they can think about nothing else so they can sack his (insert word here) all day long.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4473
440. Vero1 7:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Maybe I'll get a couple of our local politicians to come by and blow on it !


If you can't get them , we will send you several un-named bloggers.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2233
441. MississippiWx 7:17 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting JLPR2:


Once it reaches 50W intense convection should be easier to develop for ex-Gaston.


Yep. Shear should abate by that time as well.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 8587
442. SouthDadeFish 7:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting MississippiWx:
According to the model runs we have, I just over-laid a potential cone with the TCHP Gaston will encounter:

Notice Earl's wake. And the Western Carib is just flat out scary.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2418
443. jurakantaino 7:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting alpha992000:


Yikes, Kman! As someone in 18.3 N and 66.0 I certainly hope Gaston somehow takes the WNW route a bit earlier than that. Something tells me though I better not eat any of the canned food we got for Earl yet. :-P Hey, after all Gaston replaced Georges on the name list and we know what happened in good ol' PR with the G man. *shudders*
Alpha are you in San Juan?
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
444. PalmBeachWeather 7:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Reminds me when my ex asked me if i was pregnant.......
"Too early to tell"
Let's wait and see , tomorrow should tell us a lot from Gaston.
BTW... I was not pregnant, glad to say
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3084
445. stormwatcherCI 7:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Maybe I'll get a couple of our local politicians to come by and blow on it !
You should be able to get Cat5 winds from the "Premier". LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040
446. Vero1 7:18 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    

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447. JLPR2 7:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep. Shear should abate by that time as well.


yeah, bad timing :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487
448. stormpetrol 7:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Though Gaston might appear small because of the lack of convection, if you look at the visible loop, the low level circulation covers quite a bit of area. He is not as small as he appears, jmo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6400
449. kmanislander 7:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You should be able to get Cat5 winds from the "Premier". LOL


LMAO !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939
450. stormwatcherCI 7:19 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there. Thanks for the thought. Sometimes I hope I'm wrong, if that makes sense LOL
I hope you are wrong too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8040
451. troy1993 7:20 PM GMT on September 04, 2010    
Do you guys see Gaston coming to the Bahamas/Florida and then the Gulf or do you think it will go through the Carribean?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 204

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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