Earl spares North Carolina, heads for New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane Earl sideswiped North Carolina's Outer Banks early this morning, passing just 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Special weather statements indicate that the only road out of the barrier island chain, Highway 12, is closed. Pounding waves over 15 feet high, on top of a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, pushed water over the highway in multiple locations. Earl's winds also piled up huge waves offshore--waves peaked at 28 feet at the Diamond Shoals buoy, and at 31 feet at a buoy 150 nm offshore of Cape Hatteras. Peak wind gusts from Earl were 74 mph at 12:30am at Oregon Inlet, and 70 mph at Nags Head and Manteo. Sustained winds of 47 mph were recorded at Oregon Inlet, but sustained winds at Cape Hatteras never reached tropical storm force--top winds there were just 36 mph, with gusts to 62 mph. Radar estimated rainfall (Figure 2) for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks. Overall, aside from some significant beach erosion, Earl spared North Carolina.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Earl taken at 11:29am EDT September 2, 2010, by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Earl was a Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 125 mph. The storm had a somewhat lopsided shape, due to wind shear from the southwest affecting the storm. Image credit: NASA.

Earl is now headed to the north-northeast at 18 mph. Conditions will steadily improve today over North Carolina, but deteriorate over New England. Earl's outer rain bands have now reached New York's Long Island, as seen on long range Dover radar. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer the impressive hurricane it once was. The eye is no longer visible, and the hurricane appears lopsided, due upper level winds out of the southwest that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. The latest 10:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Earl continues to weaken, with a central pressure up to 961 mb. Top surface winds measured via their SFMR instrument were just 76 mph--barely Category 1 strength.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots today, then increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.


Figure 3. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 9:30am EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 75 kt (87 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (west) side were just 65 knots (74 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Impact of Earl on New England
The latest track forecasts still keep Earl's eye barely offshore of New England, with the center passing 20 - 60 miles southeast of Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 11am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 75 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be at its closest to Massachusetts. Earl will be moving northeastward near 25 mph at that time, meaning that we will see a large difference in the winds between the weak and strong sides of this fast-moving hurricane. This difference is likely to be about 15 - 20 mph, based on the wind distribution around Earl's eye seen so far this morning. Winds analyzed on the experimental H*Wind product put out by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at 9:30am this morning (Figure 3) showed that the winds on the weak left side of the storm were about 15 mph less than the winds in the powerful right front quadrant. Assuming Earl maintains this structure for the next day, we can expect the hurricane will have top winds of 75 mph on its strong southeast side over water when it whips by Southeast Massachusetts early Saturday morning, and winds of 55 - 60 mph in its northwest eyewall, closest to Massachusetts. If Cape Cod and Nantucket barely miss Earl's northwest eyewall, as currently forecast, top winds in those locations might only reach 45 - 50 mph. The latest NHC wind probability forecast from 11am this morning gives Nantucket a 12% chance of receiving sustained hurricane force winds of 74+ mph, and Hyannis on Cape Cod a 3% chance.

The highest storm surge from Earl is likely to be on the south side of Cape Cod Bay, due to the northeast winds that will be piling up water in the bay. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Cape Cod Bay, but it is more likely that the surge will be 2 - 3 feet. The extreme western portion of Long Island Sound at New York City could see a storm surge bringing water levels 1 - 2 feet above ground level.


Figure 4. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 3 - 5 feet in southern Cape Cod Bay. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on Canada
Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia late Friday night and early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 55 - 60 mph winds. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 - 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 15 - 20 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. Earl's impact is likely to be less than 2008's Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 15% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 3% in Halifax.

Fiona
There is not much to Tropical Storm Fiona, which satellite loops show to be a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and be able to destroy the storm by Saturday.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).

Gaston may regenerate
Tropical storm Gaston lost its battle with dry air yesterday, degenerating into a disorganized low pressure area. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a broad surface circulation again, and a few heavy thunderstorms have begun to appear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate. The large amount of dry air surrounding Gaston's remains seen on water vapor satellite loops will continue to be a major impediment to development. NHC is giving Gaston a 40% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday. I'd put these odds a little higher, at 60%. The GFS model develops Gaston and predicts it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also indicate Gaston will re-develop, but move the storm slower and show it near the northern Lesser Antilles seven days from now.

New tropical wave
A large tropical off the coast of Africa is moving westward at about 10 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 20 - 30 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles from the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.

Next post
I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Earl meets Surf City Pier (travelingangel2003)
First of pics ( I have taken 400 today) going to go back tonight.
Earl meets Surf City Pier
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 447 - 397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

447. StormPro
6:27 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Gaston and Igor on the UKMET 12z forecast:


No "H" storm?
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
446. Drakoen
6:25 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Gaston and Hermine on the UKMET 12z forecast:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30724
445. BLee2333
6:24 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
IMHO, yes. I believe G will continue it's southerly track and definately clear the leeward islands before any major change in direction.
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
444. breald
6:24 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting JUSTCOASTING:
So what is the general thinking on the path of Gaston from the gang here on the blog. Will it recurve or go into the Caribean ?


I say re-curve and go up the east coast like Earl did.J/K

We are getting some heavy steady rains now from Earl. The wind should start picking up later tonight.
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
443. PSLFLCaneVet
6:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm rather impressed with ex-Gaston right now. Check out the visible loop. The circulation continues to get better defined and more vigorous. You can also notice that the overall rotation of the system is becoming more evident as the circulation continues to tighten up. The convection also continues to get better organized and centered over the circulation. If this trend continues, we should have a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Nice banding features also starting to develop. I do believe that the 50% chance that the NHC gave ex-Gaston is a bit low, I would go with a 60%-70% chance in the next 48 hours.

Nice swirl, but seems the dry air is not allowing the thunderstorms to persist.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
442. cajunkid
6:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Any surge expected in and around NY?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1281
441. IKE
6:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
12Z NOGAPS run...Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
440. seflagamma
6:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!


I agree with you 100%
These storms cannot be forcast perfectly.
Too many times nothing big was made out of a storm that caught everyone off guard; the warnings went out too late to help much.

Much better to be prepared and then just put all your stuff away for next alarm.
Thanks Zoo!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 301 Comments: 40944
439. pottery
6:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm rather impressed with ex-Gaston right now. Check out the visible loop. The circulation continues to get better defined and more vigorous. You can also notice that the overall rotation of the system is becoming more evident as the circulation continues to tighten up. The convection also continues to get better organized and centered over the circulation. If this trend continues, we should have a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Nice banding features also starting to develop. I do believe that the 50% chance that the NHC gave ex-Gaston is a bit low, I would go with a 60%-70% chance in the next 48 hours.


Although the system is far south, there is rotation.
It would be interesting (from my perspective) to see if the rotation can draw the clouds from within the ITCZ (to the south-west of the system) into the main area.
This would tend to draw the moisture that is currently east of the southern Islands away from here.
I have noticed that over the years that I have been observing, that this tends to happen in August and September, bringing hot, dry conditions here.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
438. weatherwart
6:22 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
What the heck is Fiona doing?

Link
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
437. OSMS
6:21 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!

Zoo, Couldn't have said it any better. This use
to be a decent blog 5-6 years ago.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 77
436. IKE
6:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I wouldn't even really count Bonnie. IIRC Bonnie was never TS force in the GOM, only reason it had a name is because it was named prior to entering the GOM.


Then it was Alex...about 2 months ago.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
435. Drakoen
6:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Regeneration of Gaston is more likely than not.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30724
434. GTcooliebai
6:19 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting MagicSpork:
My apologies if this has already been asked, but will Zombie Gaston get a new name if he re-generates?

In short, No.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
433. MagicSpork
6:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
My apologies if this has already been asked, but will Zombie Gaston get a new name if he re-generates?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
432. JUSTCOASTING
6:17 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
So what is the general thinking on the path of Gaston from the gang here on the blog. Will it recurve or go into the Caribean ?
Member Since: August 15, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 666
431. MiamiHurricanes09
6:16 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
I'm rather impressed with ex-Gaston right now. Check out the visible loop. The circulation continues to get better defined and more vigorous. You can also notice that the overall rotation of the system is becoming more evident as the circulation continues to tighten up. The convection also continues to get better organized and centered over the circulation. If this trend continues, we should have a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Nice banding features also starting to develop. I do believe that the 50% chance that the NHC gave ex-Gaston is a bit low, I would go with a 60%-70% chance in the next 48 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
430. pottery
6:15 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting weatherwart:


I think she's still out there... lurking in the Louisiana bayous, just waiting for the right time. Mwuahhaha!

De Creature, from De Black Lagoon......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
429. notabubba
6:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormPro:

Amen to that IKE...


Just want to be sure I'm reading this properly...THAT was a "power poof", right??
Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
428. BLee2333
6:12 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
On June 27, Alex emerged into the Bay of Campeche and began to strengthen again. On June 29, after continuous drops in pressure, the Hurricane Hunters found that Alex had strong enough winds to be upgraded to hurricane status. Accordingly, late that night, Alex was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. This made the storm the first hurricane of the season, and the first June hurricane in the Atlantic since 1995's Hurricane Allison.[11] Alex later went on to make landfall as a moderate Category 2 hurricane in Soto la Marina with an unusually low barometric pressure reading of 947 millibars (27.96 inHg), typical of a Category 3 or 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.


img
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
427. Bordonaro
6:11 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!

1, agreed. This could have been a disaster and thankfully Earl behaved..

IF Earl would have maintained his intensity & took a path similar to Floyd, there would have been serious impacts from NC through all of New England..
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
426. Owen1027
6:10 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
tornado dude...any chance you can provide a link to the OZ chat room transcripts last night? That was classic! funny as heck
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
425. KoritheMan
6:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting GTcooliebai:

I don't know, something are Geography teacher would have to clarify. No but really what I meant was a hurricane in the GOM threatening the lower 48's has there ever been a yr. w/o?


In 1990, there was no US landfall of tropical storm strength. Marco was the only US threat that year, and it was a depression.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21224
424. GTcooliebai
6:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting angiest:


AFAIK it is considered part of the GOM, just as the Caribbean and GOM are part of the larger Atlantic Ocean.

That's true Gulf, Bays, Rivers all flow towards the ocean. I reworded the question if anyone cared to answer.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
423. weatherwart
6:08 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting swlavp:


Would TD#5 looping around around 6 times count? LOL


I think she's still out there... lurking in the Louisiana bayous, just waiting for the right time. Mwuahhaha!
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
422. NOLALawyer
6:08 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting OuterBanker:
OBX damage (or lack thereof) report: Avon: Homeowner reported that screens were torn, signs on posts were turned; Kitty Hawk: No overwash was apparent and along the Kitty Hawk Kill Devil Hills border-other than water coming through the beach accesses which are cut through the dunes (to keep people off the dunes)-no overwash was readily apparent. Debris in the water was low especially compared to 2009 unnamed storms; my subdivision which is 900 yards from the breakers had NO debris whatsoever, not even leaves on the grass. One exception was in Southern Shores, a highly wooded town, which is four miles north of my home, they did have branches down. I do not know whether there any trees fell. All-in-all a winter typical nor'easter does significantly more damage. One final thought: the Weather Channel people are a bunch of amped up, rating seekers, who focus on worse case scenarios even after the scenario is no longer possible. It is really frustrating and quite disappointing. I don't think it used to be like this.


Buxton flooded:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2010/09/03/VI2010090302132.html
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
421. StormPro
6:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I've had enough of you. Before I add you to my ignore list, you are one of the biggest hypers on here...ever! You hype everything.

You act like you're pissed at me and the GFS model for not showing anything in the GOM on almost every run the last 2 weeks. And it shows something in the GOM on this run! Down in the Bay of Campeche.

You want GOM storms. It's obvious.

Bye.............105 and counting.


Amen to that IKE...
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 606
420. swlavp
6:06 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!


+100
Member Since: June 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
419. pottery
6:06 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Hey...how are you?

Not ragging you at all.

I should clarify when I say trending west in my forecasting terminology...as in, not a 270-208 true heading, but a trend with a further westward component, hence the difference between the actual "north" turn, and the actual time it occurred.

Out for a while.
No Problem at all.
Doing Good here.
You keep well...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
418. zoomiami
6:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Instead of complaining that "too" much was made of Earl, I think everyone should be thankful that worst case scenario didn't happen. But you can bet if it had, these same people would be all up in arms about "the experts" not being forceful enough.

Ten years ago, we would prepare for a storm as if it were going to hit at full strength (whatever was forecast). 9 times out of 10, it didn't happen. You put your stuff away, thanked the weather gods, and got back to work. None of this Monday morning quarterbacking, should have done this, should have done that. I blame it on the "want it right now" crowd. There are also those who find it impossible to take personal responsibility for what they do, and have made everyone else their keeper.

Moral: quit b*>* over something that didn't happen and be happy!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
417. pottery
6:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
Earl... basically ontrack with a slight shift to PORT. Latest pressure reading is a drop of 1mb (962 to 961)




More Port?
Well, I dont mind if I do!
Cheers, Old Bean!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
416. angiest
6:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


That isn't considered part of the GoM?


AFAIK it is considered part of the GOM, just as the Caribbean and GOM are part of the larger Atlantic Ocean.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
415. GTcooliebai
6:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting pottery:
HEH!!
Gaston the Undead (he was declared Dead, remember?) is up to 50% at the 2:00 pm TWO.
Got to love Tropical weather...

He just needed refueling.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
414. NOLALawyer
6:04 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Thanks bud, He's at 105 if he keeps it up he will come to the blog with no one on it. I don't want any storms but to say that nothing in the gulf until 9/19 in Sept. is foolish if you ask me as these systems can develope fast this time of year. IKE reminds me of Grumpy Old Men.


Ike just likes to pour salt in everyone's wounds.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 520
412. NCHurricane2009
6:03 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Well, she didn't "actually" begin "that" turn they called for until 60W...which is west of 50W


LOL, yeah I was trying to say that Danielle turned north west of 50W, I guess I didn't say it so well,
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
411. angiest
6:02 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Earlier today (before lunch) I posted that I thought the NHC finally got Earl's track more or less correct on the 30th. I was wrong by about a day. It seems they finally got close on the 29th (though still too far to the right). Click through to see the full image:

earl verification 3

This is Earl's real track in the yellow and red squares and circles, and a sampling of forecasts starting with advisory 1 on the 25th.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
410. pottery
6:02 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
HEH!!
Gaston the Undead (he was declared Dead, remember?) is up to 50% at the 2:00 pm TWO.
Got to love Tropical weather...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
409. GTcooliebai
6:01 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


That isn't considered part of the GoM?

I don't know, something are Geography teacher would have to clarify. No but really what I meant was a hurricane in the GOM threatening the lower 48's has there ever been a yr. w/o?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
408. HurricaneSwirl
6:01 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting IKE:
The last named system in the GOM was Bonnie on July 24th...6 weeks ago. I guess 6 weeks is a long time to wait.



lol.


I wouldn't even really count Bonnie. IIRC Bonnie was never TS force in the GOM, only reason it had a name is because it was named prior to entering the GOM.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
407. Orcasystems
6:01 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Earl... basically ontrack with a slight shift to PORT. Latest pressure reading is a drop of 1mb (962 to 961)



Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
406. WeatherfanPR
6:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Here comes Gaston !!!
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1592
405. NCHurricane2009
6:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Quoting PensacolaT:
I'm a newbie, but just curious, what caused Gatons' forward speed to slow from 14mph down to 4 mph or so? Was it the fact that he became so disorganized, at least in the short term?

Thank you!


Subtropical ridges steer tropical cyclones from east to west when they are in the tropics. A trough occasinally causes the ridge to open a weakness for a storm to turn northward, and that's why Earl & Fiona are moving northward (they are in a ridge weakness)

Sometimes, a ridge weakness is not strong enough to turn a tropical cyclone northward. Instead, it continues westward, but at a slower speed while steered by the softened part of the ridge. That's what has happened with Gaston. Just for kicks, the trough that softened the ridge north of Gaston is the same system that absorbed the remnants of Danielle.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
404. challengerpr
6:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
000

WHXX04 KWBC 031748

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON 09L



INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 3



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 13.8 41.3 285./ 5.0

6 13.9 41.5 293./ 2.2

12 13.9 41.8 278./ 3.4

18 14.1 42.6 286./ 8.0

24 14.2 43.4 276./ 7.2

30 14.4 44.3 281./ 9.0

36 14.3 44.9 258./ 6.6

42 14.4 45.8 281./ 9.0

48 14.7 46.8 284./ 9.5

54 14.6 47.9 264./10.9

60 14.6 48.9 269./ 9.6

66 14.5 50.2 269./12.3

72 14.5 51.5 268./12.7

78 14.3 53.0 264./14.5

84 14.1 54.4 261./13.5

90 14.1 55.8 270./13.7

96 14.2 56.5 275./ 7.3

102 14.6 57.5 293./10.8

108 14.8 58.4 284./ 8.6

114 14.9 59.6 272./11.6

120 15.3 60.6 295./10.4

126 15.6 61.6 285./10.2


Member Since: August 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
403. HurricaneSwirl
6:00 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Well we've got 2 oranges.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
402. IKE
5:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
The last named system in the GOM was Bonnie on July 24th...6 weeks ago. I guess 6 weeks is a long time to wait.

Quoting swlavp:


Would TD#5 looping around around 6 times count? LOL


lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Well actually Alex wouldn't technically count, since it tracked across the BOC.


That isn't considered part of the GoM?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 601 Comments: 21224
StormW, you have any ideas on what the GOM is in for the rest of the season? I live along the coast so have a vested interest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 447 - 397

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
29 °F
Overcast