Earl spares North Carolina, heads for New England

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2010

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Hurricane Earl sideswiped North Carolina's Outer Banks early this morning, passing just 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Special weather statements indicate that the only road out of the barrier island chain, Highway 12, is closed. Pounding waves over 15 feet high, on top of a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet, pushed water over the highway in multiple locations. Earl's winds also piled up huge waves offshore--waves peaked at 28 feet at the Diamond Shoals buoy, and at 31 feet at a buoy 150 nm offshore of Cape Hatteras. Peak wind gusts from Earl were 74 mph at 12:30am at Oregon Inlet, and 70 mph at Nags Head and Manteo. Sustained winds of 47 mph were recorded at Oregon Inlet, but sustained winds at Cape Hatteras never reached tropical storm force--top winds there were just 36 mph, with gusts to 62 mph. Radar estimated rainfall (Figure 2) for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks. Overall, aside from some significant beach erosion, Earl spared North Carolina.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Earl taken at 11:29am EDT September 2, 2010, by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Earl was a Category 3 hurricane with top winds of 125 mph. The storm had a somewhat lopsided shape, due to wind shear from the southwest affecting the storm. Image credit: NASA.

Earl is now headed to the north-northeast at 18 mph. Conditions will steadily improve today over North Carolina, but deteriorate over New England. Earl's outer rain bands have now reached New York's Long Island, as seen on long range Dover radar. Satellite imagery shows that Earl is no longer the impressive hurricane it once was. The eye is no longer visible, and the hurricane appears lopsided, due upper level winds out of the southwest that are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear. The latest 10:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Earl continues to weaken, with a central pressure up to 961 mb. Top surface winds measured via their SFMR instrument were just 76 mph--barely Category 1 strength.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the Cape Hatteras, North Carolina radar shows that 3 - 4 inches of rain fell across much of the Outer Banks.

Forecast for Earl
The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning show little change to Earl's track. Earl is expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast of wind shear also shows no surprises. Wind shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots today, then increase to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, on Saturday. Ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C early Saturday morning, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.


Figure 3. Wind field analysis of Hurricane Earl from 9:30am EDT Friday, September 3, 2010. Note the 15 mph asymmetry in Earl's wind field, caused by the storm's forward motion of 18 mph to the north-northeast at the time. The highest contour had top winds of 75 kt (87 mph) surrounding the "+" on the east side of Earl--the strong right front quadrant of the storm. However, winds on the left (west) side were just 65 knots (74 mph.) The asymmetry was greater--about 20 mph--at 6:30 am EDT this morning. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division.

Impact of Earl on New England
The latest track forecasts still keep Earl's eye barely offshore of New England, with the center passing 20 - 60 miles southeast of Nantucket and the extreme eastern tip of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The 11am NHC intensity forecast calls for Earl to have top winds of 75 mph at 2am Saturday, when the storm is expected to be at its closest to Massachusetts. Earl will be moving northeastward near 25 mph at that time, meaning that we will see a large difference in the winds between the weak and strong sides of this fast-moving hurricane. This difference is likely to be about 15 - 20 mph, based on the wind distribution around Earl's eye seen so far this morning. Winds analyzed on the experimental H*Wind product put out by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division at 9:30am this morning (Figure 3) showed that the winds on the weak left side of the storm were about 15 mph less than the winds in the powerful right front quadrant. Assuming Earl maintains this structure for the next day, we can expect the hurricane will have top winds of 75 mph on its strong southeast side over water when it whips by Southeast Massachusetts early Saturday morning, and winds of 55 - 60 mph in its northwest eyewall, closest to Massachusetts. If Cape Cod and Nantucket barely miss Earl's northwest eyewall, as currently forecast, top winds in those locations might only reach 45 - 50 mph. The latest NHC wind probability forecast from 11am this morning gives Nantucket a 12% chance of receiving sustained hurricane force winds of 74+ mph, and Hyannis on Cape Cod a 3% chance.

The highest storm surge from Earl is likely to be on the south side of Cape Cod Bay, due to the northeast winds that will be piling up water in the bay. NHC is giving a 10% chance that a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet will occur in Cape Cod Bay, but it is more likely that the surge will be 2 - 3 feet. The extreme western portion of Long Island Sound at New York City could see a storm surge bringing water levels 1 - 2 feet above ground level.


Figure 4. NHC is giving a 10% chance that the storm surge will reach heights of 3 - 5 feet in southern Cape Cod Bay. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Impact of Earl on Canada
Winds will begin to rise on the southwest coast of Nova Scotia late Friday night and early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday, Earl is expected to make landfall somewhere between the Maine/New Brunswick border and central Nova Scotia. At that time, Earl will probably be a strong tropical storm with 55 - 60 mph winds. Earl will be moving at a very rapid 25 - 30 mph when it arrives in Canada, and regions on the right side of the eye can expect winds 15 - 20 mph greater than on the left side, due to the fast forward motion of the hurricane. Earl's impact is likely to be less than 2008's Hurricane Kyle, the last hurricane to hit Nova Scotia. Kyle hit near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia, as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Kyle produced a storm surge of 2.6 feet, and did $9 million in damage to Canada. The 11am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is calling for a 15% chance of hurricane-force winds in Yarmouth, and 3% in Halifax.

Fiona
There is not much to Tropical Storm Fiona, which satellite loops show to be a naked swirl of low clouds with just one diminishing spot of heavy thunderstorms on the southwest side of the circulation. High wind shear from Earl should continue to affect Fiona over the next two days, and be able to destroy the storm by Saturday.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of Gaston's remains (left) and the latest tropical wave to move off of Africa (right).

Gaston may regenerate
Tropical storm Gaston lost its battle with dry air yesterday, degenerating into a disorganized low pressure area. Recent satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains have developed a broad surface circulation again, and a few heavy thunderstorms have begun to appear. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days, so it is possible Gaston could regenerate. The large amount of dry air surrounding Gaston's remains seen on water vapor satellite loops will continue to be a major impediment to development. NHC is giving Gaston a 40% chance of regenerating into a tropical depression by Sunday. I'd put these odds a little higher, at 60%. The GFS model develops Gaston and predicts it will move though the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. The NOGAPS and Canadian models also indicate Gaston will re-develop, but move the storm slower and show it near the northern Lesser Antilles seven days from now.

New tropical wave
A large tropical off the coast of Africa is moving westward at about 10 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression next week. NHC is giving the wave a 10% chance of developing by Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is currently too high, 20 - 30 knots, for the wave to develop. However, once the wave reaches a point a few hundred miles from the Cape Verdes Islands two days from now, wind shear will drop and development will be more likely.

Next post
I'll have an update late this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Earl meets Surf City Pier (travelingangel2003)
First of pics ( I have taken 400 today) going to go back tonight.
Earl meets Surf City Pier
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Earl's Swells Reach The Rhode Island Coast@ Newport # 11

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Flood...Dont forget the "you hurt my feelings with too many poofs" ban POOF
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, but none of the really knowledgeable folks, such as you and I, will not so easily and readily bat an eye if the model(s) shows a couple of majors in the Gulf. That's just silly. We should just ignore and shake our heads at those who do go ballistic over that sort of thing.

I suppose it'd be a little inaccurate and dishonest to say "near 0". But also keep in mind that we've had four systems in the Gulf this year: Alex, TD2, Bonnie, and TD5. Granted, Alex was the only real threat, but had the other three had more favorable conditions to work with... Well, you know the rest.

Well actually Alex wouldn't technically count, since it tracked across the BOC.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CCreader:
We are on lower Cape Cod. Have had a few bands of heavy rain, no wind and very humid. Things may change overnight!


Currently displace Cape Codder here....maybe it won't be too bad there. The storm is getting weaker so it won't be the monster we heard about earlier. That's good. Hang in there...keep us posted ok? I'm in NJ at the moment near Atlantic City and it's wicked hot and muggy here...every now and then a drizzle and not much wind. It looks like big time rain is on the way though but it's very much needed here.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 031756
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM FIONA...LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TODAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
000

WTNT80 EGRR 031800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 41.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2010 14.0N 41.6W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2010 13.9N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2010 14.4N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2010 14.9N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2010 15.1N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2010 14.4N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2010 14.2N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2010 14.0N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2010 14.4N 55.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2010 15.1N 57.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2010 16.3N 59.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2010 17.5N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2010 18.8N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
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Awaiting 2PM TWO... Ex-Gaston should be red..
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I'm a newbie, but just curious, what caused Gatons' forward speed to slow from 14mph down to 4 mph or so? Was it the fact that he became so disorganized, at least in the short term?

Thank you!
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Quoting IKE:


I'll guarantee you if the GFS showed a couple of major systems in the GOM the next 16 days, this blog would be all over it.

The rebuttal is what you just said to me. The model is long-range. You can't trust it. I didn't say I trusted it.

As far as a 0% chance of verifying. How many GOM storms have we had the last few weeks?


Would TD#5 looping around around 6 times count? LOL
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Quoting StormW:


Actually, she did

DANIELLE Graphics Archive

True. For a brief period.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
down to 80MPH winds
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Quoting FloridaHeat:


are you the same tornadodude from the webcam guy chat


yes
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Quoting twooks:
Evening folks.

Models still inconsistent with Gaston?


Don't know, models were taken down on Wunderground.com/tropical after Gaston dissipated. I don't understand why the front page can't keep computer models runs on the remnants of a tropical cyclone. If they show models runs for Invests, they should also do the same for the remnants of a tropical cyclone, especially if those remnants are mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook like Gaston's are.
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Quoting IKE:


I'll guarantee you if the GFS showed a couple of major systems in the GOM the next 16 days, this blog would be all over it.

The rebuttal is what you just said to me. The model is long-range. You can't trust it. I didn't say I trusted it.

As far as a 0% chance of verifying. How many GOM storms have we had the last few weeks?


Yeah, but none of the really knowledgeable folks, such as you and I, will so easily and readily bat an eye if the model(s) shows a couple of majors in the Gulf. That's just silly. We should just ignore and shake our heads at those who do go ballistic over that sort of thing.

I suppose it'd be a little inaccurate and dishonest to say "near 0". But also keep in mind that we've had four systems in the Gulf this year: Alex, TD2, Bonnie, and TD5. Granted, Alex was the only real threat, but had the other three had more favorable conditions to work with... Well, you know the rest.
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The first rain band in RI was at 10am. Since then we have had a few other bands that were heavier. Quiet right now. Still expecting the worse later this afternoon and tonight. Most schools closed at 12:00. Weather last night was not as humid and still as I remember it was in 1985 with Gloria. Since this is still early in the season and the last four storms have been in this direction I have a bad feeling about what is to come later in the month.
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Quoting BLee2333:
Guess everyone forgot about the beginning of the season already. No, this will not be a year without a GOM storm...


I should've clarified: I meant a year without a Hurricane.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting tornadodude:


exactly my point! :)

This guy gets to do what he always wanted to do, and we get to watch him do it. No one is forced to watch it, no one is endangered from him, and he has a blast.

lighten up guys


are you the same tornadodude from the webcam guy chat
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Very impressive compared to Fiona:



Doesn't look like anything in that image, although it is much easier to see Fiona's exposed circulation in this image:



looks like it no longer has a closed low.. should be discontinued shortly
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You think they hype, at least they make the CNN weatherfolks look more intelligent, but I don't like the CNN nor Weather Channel coverages.

We can be thankful that Earl has taken the rightmost and weakest scenario track. There will still be some surf, rip currents, rain, gusty winds, etc. up the east coast and Atlantic Canada, but at least this is not the worst case scenario.


Sorry, I meant to say the Weather Channel makes CNN weatherfolks look LESS intelligent :)
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Quoting Halyn:
TorDu .. Having reached the latter part of my "journey" .. I can assure you that my only regrets are for the things I wanted to do .. and didn't do ! .. :D My life has not been "dull", though .. :)


exactly my point! :)

This guy gets to do what he always wanted to do, and we get to watch him do it. No one is forced to watch it, no one is endangered from him, and he has a blast.

lighten up guys
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Guess everyone forgot about the beginning of the season already. No, this will not be a year without a GOM storm...

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Quoting btwntx08:
another flare up with ex gaston


Very impressive compared to Fiona:



Doesn't look like anything in that image, although it is much easier to see Fiona's exposed circulation in this image:

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Quoting StormW:


Actually, she did

DANIELLE Graphics Archive


StormW is technically right, Danielle banked to the left around 50W, then AFTER that, banked to the north again when it got caught in its final ridge weakness.
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372. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


I understand that IKE, but you should know as well as anyone that long-range predictions are completely useless. So regardless of what the model shows (either something in the Gulf or not), there's absolutely no reason to believe such a long-range forecast, which has a near 0% chance of verifying.


I'll guarantee you if the GFS showed a couple of major systems in the GOM the next 16 days, this blog would be all over it.

The rebuttal is what you just said to me. The model is long-range. You can't trust it. I didn't say I trusted it.

As far as a 0% chance of verifying. How many GOM storms have we had the last few weeks?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Nah, I think Earl's going to go just east of the Bay of Fundy. Check out this projected path I made yesterday for Earl. Every time I check the coordinates of Earl, it has taken the right edge of the projected path. So, extrapolate that, you can see it going just east of the Bay of Fundy and make landfall in south-central Nova Scotia.

Also, my intensity forecast seems to be on par. I predicted Earl would be 105 to 115 mph when it passed just east of Hatteras, and it was 105 mph. Looks like at the current rate of decay, I still believe it will be 70 to 80 mph (as shown in my forecast) when it passes by Cape Cod, and then 50 to 60 mph as it moves across Nova Scotia.


Thats what I think too, been saying it for the last 24 hours in a local Halifax forum.
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Evening folks.

Models still inconsistent with Gaston?
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Quoting Floodman:


There's one I missed: the implied poof
Don't forget the "bandwagon" poof..."Everyone poof so and so...he's a troll!!!!"
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Quoting OuterBanker:
OBX damage (or lack thereof) report: Avon: Homeowner reported that screens were torn, signs on posts were turned; Kitty Hawk: No overwash was apparent and along the Kitty Hawk Kill Devil Hills border-other than water coming through the beach accesses which are cut through the dunes (to keep people off the dunes)-no overwash was readily apparent. Debris in the water was low especially compared to 2009 unnamed storms; my subdivision which is 900 yards from the breakers had NO debris whatsoever, not even leaves on the grass. One exception was in Southern Shores, a highly wooded town, which is four miles north of my home, they did have branches down. I do not know whether there any trees fell. All-in-all a winter typical nor'easter does significantly more damage. One final thought: the Weather Channel people are a bunch of amped up, rating seekers, who focus on worse case scenarios even after the scenario is no longer possible. It is really frustrating and quite disappointing. I don't think it used to be like this.


You think they hype, at least they make the CNN weatherfolks look more intelligent, but I don't like the CNN nor Weather Channel coverages.

We can be thankful that Earl has taken the rightmost and weakest scenario track. There will still be some surf, rip currents, rain, gusty winds, etc. up the east coast and Atlantic Canada, but at least this is not the worst case scenario.
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...FIONA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 65.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting btwntx08:
another flare up with ex gaston


Most importantly, the low-level circulation has become more vigorous over the last several hours.
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...EARL CONTINUES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 72.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good afternoon, fellow WU peeps. Has everyone in the path of Earl fared well so far?
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 884
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


The blog wasn't hacked, it just glitched up.

A T# of 7.2 would be a Category 5 hurricane, btw, lol. It was instead a Magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the general vicinity of New zealand


thank you i knew a t# that high would have been a scary thing i should have realized it was a quake
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360. Halyn
Quoting tornadodude:


Thanks!

(the following not directed at you Geep)

so many people criticize him for living out his childhood dream. he isnt risking any of your lives, so quit freaking out about it.

he gets to do what he has always wanted to do and youre stuck working in an office from 9-5. get over it?
TorDu .. Having reached the latter part of my "journey" .. I can assure you that my only regrets are for the things I wanted to do .. and didn't do ! .. :D My life has not been "dull", though .. :)
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Quoting RickWPB:
Looks like Earl is still forecast to go right up the bay of fundy %u2014 where they have the world's largest tide changes (some places up to 55').

Bay of Fundy: Canda's New7Wonders of Nature Finalist



Nah, I think Earl's going to go just east of the Bay of Fundy. Check out this projected path I made yesterday for Earl. Every time I check the coordinates of Earl, it has taken the right edge of the projected path. So, extrapolate that, you can see it going just east of the Bay of Fundy and make landfall in south-central Nova Scotia.

Also, my intensity forecast seems to be on par. I predicted Earl would be 105 to 115 mph when it passed just east of Hatteras, and it was 105 mph. Looks like at the current rate of decay, I still believe it will be 70 to 80 mph (as shown in my forecast) when it passes by Cape Cod, and then 50 to 60 mph as it moves across Nova Scotia.
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OBX damage (or lack thereof) report: Avon: Homeowner reported that screens were torn, signs on posts were turned; Kitty Hawk: No overwash was apparent and along the Kitty Hawk Kill Devil Hills border-other than water coming through the beach accesses which are cut through the dunes (to keep people off the dunes)-no overwash was readily apparent. Debris in the water was low especially compared to 2009 unnamed storms; my subdivision which is 900 yards from the breakers had NO debris whatsoever, not even leaves on the grass. One exception was in Southern Shores, a highly wooded town, which is four miles north of my home, they did have branches down. I do not know whether there any trees fell. All-in-all a winter typical nor'easter does significantly more damage. One final thought: the Weather Channel people are a bunch of amped up, rating seekers, who focus on worse case scenarios even after the scenario is no longer possible. It is really frustrating and quite disappointing. I don't think it used to be like this.
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Quoting maeko:


that was really weird. i've never seen that before.
Me either. I kept signing out and signing back in because I thought it was my computer. LOL. Gotta head back to work now and will check back in later to see what Gaston is up to.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
03-SEP-2010 16:35:44 -43.33 172.44 7.2 16.1 SOUTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND

A strong earthquake hit near New Zealand,second-largest city, Christchurch, early Saturday. Radio New Zealand described the quake as severe, and reported that power was out across the city and that several roadways were damaged.

No casualties were immediately reported, but some residents posted Twitter alerts reporting damage and large aftershocks. The government said the earthquake was a big one and that it would decide soon whether to activate its national disaster procedures.

Link





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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
"My word is my bond" goes back to the Biblical admonition not to need to swear an oath "but let your yea be yea and your nay be nay" Matt. 5:34+5 KJV

Dig deep enough and just about every English expression goes back to Shakespeare either his original work or translation of Christian scripture.
That's a shade oversimplified, and I'd have to say Floodman's reference is more on point for the current usage... but I'm sorta wasting more space here that is best used otherwise. I shall digress... but I am an English Major who studied Latin, btw
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Nice band of rain and wind frm Earl about to impact along the coast from New York up to Boston over the next half-hour or so.....
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
Quoting NOSinger:
Not that STORM has the final say all when it comes to storms and forecasting....but earlier, he posted that a "north" turn with Gaston was " Not gonna happen"....I feel confident that he has looked at the current conditions that we have right now and has made that assumption off of facts...JMO

No one has the Final Say, in forecasting.
StormW made a prediction on Daneille when she was about 50W, that she would trend to the West based on Steering Maps, location of highs, etc.
That did not happen.
But the thing is, he makes his predictions based on Research of the conditions, and we respect him for that.
Being right 100% in this game, is not likely to happen.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
Quoting FloridaHeat:


was it just me or was the blog just hack???

i thought that was a t# that everyone always talks about but instead it was an earth quake??? in new zeland???


The blog wasn't hacked, it just glitched up.

A T# of 7.2 would be a Category 5 hurricane, btw, lol. It was instead a Magnitude 7.2 earthquake in the general vicinity of New zealand
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349. maeko
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sorry about that earlier post. I don't know what happened there.


that was really weird. i've never seen that before.
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Quoting IKE:


***Takes a shot***




And I've said I thought there would be at least one this month in the GOM...maybe more.

But...I'm not going to act all fired up if it shows 2-3 of them slamming into the northern GOM. If it shows the opposite I will...because the GOM has taken enough lately. The entire GOM deserves a break from weather and oil rig explosions and ruined lives on account of it or death.


I understand that IKE, but you should know as well as anyone that long-range predictions are completely useless. So regardless of what the model shows (either something in the Gulf or not), there's absolutely no reason to believe such a long-range forecast, which has a near 0% chance of verifying.
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Quoting Floodman:


No, that would be puff...LOL
Hence, your avatar? LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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