Category 4 Earl Approaches the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:49 AM GMT on September 02, 2010

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Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with category 4 Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storms Fiona and Gaston in the Atlantic. We'll focus on Earl tonight.

Earl
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph and faster gusts. From the advisory, Earl is located at 27.8 N, 73.8 W, 520 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving north-northwest at 18 mph. Data from hurricane hunter flights show that Earl's pressure has fallen, the minimum central pressure is now 932 mb. Looking at Figure 1, an estimate of rainfall rates (think radar in space), we see a complete eyewall, with an especiallly vigorous thunderstorm cluster in the northwest quadrant. These


Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl taken at 9PM EDT 1 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is still a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 230 miles away. 12 foot seas extend at least 210 nmi from the center in all directions and may reach out to 450 nmi in the northeast quadrant of the storm. The most recent estimate (930PM EDT) of Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 91 TJ, with a wind impact of 3.1 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.7 out of 6. Like Dr. Masters said earlier today, if the right front quadrant of Earl stays out to sea, the storm surge may not be as significant as this rating indicates.

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue turning toward the north as it moves around the subtropical high. When the trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. If the trough comes out quickly, Earl will stay at sea. If the trough is late in arriving, it could move Earl across the East Coast.

That said, the current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, but with Earl's center passing near the Outer Banks late Thursday night, then passing the Delmarva peninsula Friday morning before flying past Cape Cod Friday night and crossing over Canada's Nova Scotia Saturday. There is also a small possibility (less than 10%) that Earl could pass directly over the Outer Banks and/or the Delmarva peninsula. However, with a storm of Earl's size, the center does not have to pass overhead to cause damage. Please keep this in mind when considering your hurricane preparations.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend, and there is a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds along the Outer Banks. NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. The highlights are that Cape Hatteras, NC has a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds and a 91% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force winds. A wide swath of 30+% probabilities covers the East Coast from Virginia to New England. Cities with a greater than 40% chance of TS winds include Norfolk, Ocean City, Providence, Boston, and Nantucket. Halifax, Nova Scotia in Canada has a 62% chance of TS force winds.

Earl is expected to maintain its current intensity until it meets the trough and starts moving northeastwards. The shear from the trough will start weakening it. It will likely go by Cape Cod as a fast-moving category 2 hurricane. When it goes over Nova Scotia, it will likely still be a tropical storm.
Current Watches and Warnings

Hurricane warnings are valid for the coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border. Hurricane watches in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, DE and from Woods Hole, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover much of the coast in between the NC/VA border and Woods Hole, MA. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
The primary threats from Earl are going to be storm surge, surf, and wind. Since Earl is forecast to gain speed after meeting the trough, flooding from rain should not be a large problem. From a broad perspective, storm surges are expected to be 3-5 feet above the tidal level, with large breaking waves at the coast. Beach erosion along the Delmarva peninsula and Outer Banks (8-10 foot breaking waves) could be significant. For more localized info, check out NWS's Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the watches and warnings should be working through their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 24 hours to complete your preparations if you are in the Outer Banks and less than 48 hours in New England. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS.

Fiona
All watches and warnings for Fiona were discontinued by the 5:00 PM EDT forecast. Fiona is forecast to curve northward without affecting land and dissipate in 4 days.

Gaston
Once Earl moves past Nova Scotia, this is the storm to watch in the tropical Atlantic. While it is far out at sea (more than 6 days to affect land), some computer models suggest Gaston could affect the Bahamas or the Caribbean. Statistical intensity forecast models (LGEM and SHIPS) rapidly intensify Gaston, but the dynamical models (HWRF, GFDL) do not. This storm will be worth watching over the next week or so.

Aerial Reconnaissance
The skies around Earl are going to be very busy Thursday according to the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day. There will be 3 flights from the Hurricane Hunters. NCAR and NOAA's Gulfstream's will be flying around Earl. HRD's WP-3D's will be flying research missions every 12 hours. NASA is sending several aircchraft as part of their Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) mission. Their Global Hawk UAV will be flying for at least 24 hours. NASA's DC-8 has a six-hour mission scheduled. Finally, a WB-57 (one of the planes I supported during 2001's CRYSTAL-FACE) will also be flying high above Earl with microwave remote sensing gear. NASA has a nice list of the airborne instruments.


Fig. 2 Photo of Earl's eyewall taken from NASA's DC-8 Image Credit: NASA/Jane Peterson. (Full size image)

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Thursday morning. Dr. Masters, myself, Shaun Tanner, and myself will be participating in a special Hurricane Haven Thursday afternoon to discuss Earl's imminent approach. Dr. Masters will have the finalized details in his blog update.

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From the looks of the center fix, it appears that Earl is heading more to the North now -- I hope!!!

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 09:11Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 07L in 2010
Storm Name: Earl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 12
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 8:49:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°12'N 74°35'W (29.2N 74.5833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 332 miles (535 km) to the NNE (31°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,512m (8,241ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the WNW (285°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 15° at 99kts (From the NNE at ~ 113.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WNW (286°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 932mb (27.52 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,058m (10,033ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 141kts (~ 162.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 7:10:50Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 118kts (~ 135.8mph) in the southeast quadrant at 9:00:50Z
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the southeast quadrant at 8:59:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INFRQT MDT TURBC IN NW EYEWALL



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Earl is also the most intense Category 4 hurricane since Floyd in 1999.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
'Pressure wise, at 928 mb, Earl became the most intense cyclone in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Felix of 2007.'

Someone was quick to add that on Wiki.

Can I take credit?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting KoritheMan:


Earl's 1 mb below the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane, so that makes him the 20th strongest Atlantic hurricane in terms of central pressure.
lol thank you i so gave up when wiki only went to 17 and the source went to an out of order 100 year chart history of all atlantic storms lol
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Quoting breald:


is it stationary or just a little slower?
Slower
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Quoting Engine2:
Trough is lagging a little behind - lets hope its not late to dinner


is it stationary or just a little slower?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting smuldy:
Wilma was the strongest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Basin, so where does that put Earl at? Probably an edit with an answer per wikipedia in about 90 seconds lol


Earl's 1 mb below the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane, so that makes him the 20th strongest Atlantic hurricane in terms of central pressure.
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NHC still hasnt updated their track graphic
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We need more green barbs with winds from the SW
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=wvir&zoom=&t ime=
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Quoting SykKid:


Dean....


Oh, I was thinking Dean was in the 920s for some reason. You're right.
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Quoting breald:


I just looked at the NHC info and model tracks and I am getting a little nervous. Why are these darn tracks moving closer west? Where is this trough?
Trough is lagging a little behind - lets hope its not late to dinner
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Quoting Engine2:
This is going to be close for OBX and SNE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html


I just looked at the NHC info and model tracks and I am getting a little nervous. Why are these darn tracks moving closer west? Where is this trough?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which makes Earl the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005, and also the strongest hurricane in this part of the Atlantic since Andrew in 1992.
Wilma was the strongest hurricane in the history of the Atlantic Basin, so where does that put Earl at? Probably an edit with an answer per wikipedia in about 90 seconds lol

edit:ok too late to go igging, not top 17 yet
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 020907
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS
AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK
INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION
. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 29.3N 74.7W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 38.1N 72.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 69.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 50.5N 62.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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So yet again a western shift
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Quoting Cotillion:
Earl beats Felix by 1mb (Felix had 929mb, though had 175mph winds at max).

Earl also has gusts up to 175mph.


Which makes Earl the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005, and also the strongest hurricane in this part of the Atlantic since Andrew in 1992.
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 020907
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS
AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK
INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT
ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL
BEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 29.3N 74.7W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.3W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 38.1N 72.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 41.6N 69.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 50.5N 62.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting traumaboyy:
Thanks guys.....and I know both of you are still thinking about calling me an idiot, know I not wish or westcaster at all....but something just did not jive in my limited knowledge base!!
no not at all its a legitimate question i am putting all of my faith in the models forecasted synoptic pattern at this point because it is within 3 days if they are wrong I am wrong just it is very rare for them to be very wrong, a little wrong, ie eastern new england and coastal carolina feeling stronger effects than current models say is well within the realm of reason given the trof taking its time and angled a bit less eastward than predicted; that said the same issues came up with danielle and the models were right on the recurve before bermuda (though not at 40w) and when a model did a head scratching thing (like gfs having Danielle barrel through a ridge of high pressure due north to the east of bermuda) it was the strength of the forecasted ridge, not the path Danielle would take, that was wrong in the model's layout.
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Earl beats Felix by 1mb (Felix had 929mb, though had 175mph winds at max).

Earl also has gusts up to 175mph.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 29.3°N 74.7°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 928 mb

Earl is the strongest hurricane since Dean of 2007.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
000
WTNT32 KNHC 020855
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 74.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES

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BY 36-48 HOURS...FIONA
MAY MOVE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF LOW SHEAR BENEATH A
SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP
NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR FIONA TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME FLUCTUATIONS DURING THAT
TIME AS THE SHEAR WAXES AND WANES. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Cotillion:
Korithe, a fair few last night had the collective chill down the spine with Gaston.

Looks like it wants to be the first storm this year to take a proper drink outta the Caribbean.

---

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.


Yep. I've been thinking this myself for awhile. It doesn't look like much now, but just wait.
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yeah it's slowly making the turn now. Not hardly any W component now. Unless it wobbles back W it will go E of the Banks. Looks like it is going to stay near 75 or just to the right. Looks like the Banks are going to get spared the worst. They are still going to get some damage out of this.
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Korithe, a fair few last night had the collective chill down the spine with Gaston.

Looks like it wants to be the first storm this year to take a proper drink outta the Caribbean.

---

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...AND WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Well I see no slowing at all and Earl has definitely taken on a NNW bearing, so the northerly turn has begun. I'm sure we will see temporary jogs to the NW or maybe west, but I assume he straddles mighty close to 74.8 to 75.2 from here onward.
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 020845
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED
TO A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GASTON REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER
WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GASTON IS
PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS WHICH COULD
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...LYING IN
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.

GASTON CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
280/8. GASTON IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY
48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR
EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 38.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.6N 39.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 13.8N 40.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.0N 41.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 14.2N 42.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 14.6N 45.9W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 15.0N 50.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 16.0N 55.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN

Trouble.
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Hard to pick out Fiona straight away on WV, like she got lost in Earl's outflow.

Gaston's discussion is basically 'same as'.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
This is going to be close for OBX and SNE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
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Quoting Engine2:
Looks like from the water vapor ir map that there arent any steering mechanisms in-site that are going to move Earl east - no green barbs from the sw - going to be a foot race


Yup. WV imagery indicates that the ridge to the east continues to hold fairly steady.
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looks like it just made a bit of North jog on the last few frames...maybe just a wobble??
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Quoting SCwannabe:


They usually do slow down before a turn.


Exactly. Meaning Earl isn't turning yet.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
...FIONA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
Looks like from the water vapor ir map that there arent any steering mechanisms in-site that are going to move Earl east - no green barbs from the sw - going to be a foot race
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No I think he said that.


They usually do slow down before a turn.
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Quoting traumaboyy:
Thanks guys.....and I know both of you are still thinking about calling me an idiot, know I not wish or westcaster at all....but something just did not jive in my limited knowledge base!!


Oh no, it's fine. I understand.
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Thanks guys.....and I know both of you are still thinking about calling me an idiot, know I not wish or westcaster at all....but something just did not jive in my limited knowledge base!!
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...FIONA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
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TS Watch posted for Bermuda due to Fiona.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2
Location: 13.5°N 38.2°W
Max sustained: 40 mph
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb

5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2
Location: 22.6°N 65.4°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting traumaboyy:


Ok....I don't mind being told I am an idiot ....But that High is just sitting there on east coast....will that high turn it Northeast?? I know the trough was supposed to turn it..it slowed down......but I have been told for days now there is a turn coming...and where is it...I mean could it just barrell right on inland before the turn??


Did you check the blog I made tonight? I alluded to something similar in it. Whilst I currently expect it to stay just offshore, I do think it will pass about 10-30 miles offshore coastal North Carolina before turning northward.

Basically, I feel that both the models and the NHC are being much too quick with northward turn. Water vapor images suggest that the ridge to the east is still holding steady, and heights are only slowly falling across the southeast and mid-Atlantic in advance of the trough.

The trough is moving slower than Earl. He'll turn, but it's becoming more dangerous as the hours go on.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Ok....I don't mind being told I am an idiot ....But that High is just sitting there on east coast....will that high turn it Northeast?? I know the trough was supposed to turn it..it slowed down......but I have been told for days now there is a turn coming...and where is it...I mean could it just barrell right on inland before the turn??
it's going to recurve, its just a question of when and from and to where
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I can't say I've seen any frost yet, actually. That's despite being a couple of hundred miles north of you.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting KoritheMan:


lmao


Ok....I don't mind being told I am an idiot ....But that High is just sitting there on east coast....will that high turn it Northeast?? I know the trough was supposed to turn it..it slowed down......but I have been told for days now there is a turn coming...and where is it...I mean could it just barrell right on inland before the turn??
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Chilly at 6:30, but no frost!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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