Yucatan Stan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on October 02, 2005

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Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is holding together as it moves slowly across the Yucatan Peninsula. Stan came ashore this morning as a 45-mph tropical storm just south of Cozumel Island, the same place Hurricane Emily hit earlier this season. Stan looks pretty good for a storm whose circulation is over land--some impressive spiral bands lie to the east over the Caribbean, and the upper level ouflow is good on all sides except the west. The wind shear is a low 5 knots over the storm.

Stan will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday, and will have at least 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf as it tracks westward towards the northeast coast of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and Stan could be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday. It is not certain Stan will make it ashore on Tuesday, as the ridge that is driving Stan westward is forecast to weaken. Stan may stall, loop back, or even turn northwards and threaten the U.S. later in the week. Complicating the long range forecast is the fact that most of the computer models expect a second tropical storm to form in the region by Wednesday or Thursday. The formation location varies depending upon which model one looks at, but ranges from Key West to Cedar Key to west of Jamaica to the southern Bahama Islands, or possibly the Carolina coast.

Tropical Storm Otis
Hurricane Otis is now Tropical Storm Otis, with 70 mph winds. Otis is looking like much less of a threat to Mexico and Arizona today. This is a small storm, and is expected to weaken further before it crosses the Baja Peninsula Monday, bringing at most 3 - 6 inches of rain to that region. By the time Otis makes it to northern Mexico, the storm will have dissipated, and should bring only 2 -4 inches of mostly beneficial rains to drought-starved southern Arizona.

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is struggling with wind shear, and is not expected to live long. It is unlikely that this storm will get a name, and instead be torn apart by wind shear within three days as it heads northward over open ocean, far from land.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The disturbed area of weather that was 500 miles east of Trinidad and the southern Lesser Antilles Islands has diminshed, and tropical storm developement in this area is not expected. An area of clouds north of Puerto RIco is primarily due to a upper-level low, and development is not expected.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang (Chinese for Dragon King), made landfall on Taiwan at dawn Sunday as a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan significantly weakened Longwang, which is expected to strike mainland China today as a Category 1 hurricane. Longwang did heavy damage on Taiwan, injuring at least 36 people. In a freakish double-whammy, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake hit the island as Longwang came ashore. No damage reports from the earthquake have been received yet.

My next update will be at 10pm EDT tonight.
Jeff Masters

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332. primez
1:48 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
331. quipment
1:46 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
jldfish where in the upstate are you we sit here in the clemson area
330. jldfish
1:40 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
st simons

wow quite a detailed answer and discussion we do usually get a strong cold front in early October here... cant give specifics but just remember cold (for here) cub scout campin trips with my son!!!

we really do need some rain ahead of this system because if we just getr cool dry winds the risk of wildfires will be really high though not like the Santa Anas

326. IKE
1:31 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
A new blog by Dr. Masters
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
324. tornadoty
1:30 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
The GFS has a large hurricane in the western Atlanic two weeks from now...
323. guygee
1:28 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
MysteryMeat at 9:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2005 Wrote:
"The NHC/TPC should drop the Greek alphabet and sell the naming rights for any post-Wilma storms on Ebay. All fear Hurricane Goldenpalace.com"

Hurricane Enron will knock out electrical power for months.
But on the bright side, the Dept. of Homeland Security will be able to upgrade and hire the manager of the Budweiser Clydedales to oversee FEMA.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3059
322. 8888888889gg
1:20 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
What was the major regional natural history event of the 20th century? No contest.

Lake Erie froze over by December 14, 1976, an early record. This normally puts an end to the lake effect snowstorms created by winds picking up moisture from the lake surface, converting it to snow and dumping it when those winds reach shore. But that winter something different happened.

It began to snow just after Christmas and a few inches accumulated almost every day through the next month. By late January snow depth in Buffalo was 30 to 35 inches and street plowing was already falling behind -- 33 of the city's 79 plows were in for repairs. More ominous, snow depth on the 10,000 square miles of Lake Erie surface was also almost three feet.

Although the National Weather Service had posted blizzard warnings, that fateful Friday, January 28, 1977 started out quite pleasant. There was little wind and it wasn't too cold for late January. But suddenly, just before noon, the infamous Blizzard of '77 hit.

The temperature quickly plummeted to near zero and the winds arrived with gusts peaking at over 70 miles per hour. This produced a wind chill that dropped almost off the chart to 60 below. Only about seven inches of new snow fell over the next several days, but western New York and nearby Canada were also inundated with those tons of snow blown in off Lake Erie.

As one consequence, visibility remained at zero for the first 25 hours of the storm. Drivers found themselves being buried and many, surrounded by the whiteout, were forced to stay in their cars. Some of those contributed to the 29 death toll, dying of carbon monoxide poisoning or exposure. (In another episode carbon monoxide from a snow blower started in an enclosed garage killed not only the operator but his daughter in a nearby bedroom.) Hearing of people marooned in their cars, police struggled over drifts to bang on car roofs. They were relieved to receive no answer because they had no way of digging anyone out.

Ordinary snow would not have been so bad. During this same period the east end of Lake Ontario received almost six feet, but theirs didn't pack the way it did in Buffalo. Here the wind was so strong that it broke up snow crystals and compressed them into drifts that were cement-like in quality. At the same time buildings acted like snow fences causing the drifts to accumulate in some places to 30 feet, enough to bury a house.

The problem became more than the usual too few plows; now it was plows that could not penetrate the drifts. Some broke down, were quickly buried and themselves contributed to the difficulty of opening roads. The state's National Guard and Department of Transportation, the Army Corps of Engineers, nearby towns and commercial firms had to bring in earth moving equipment to handle the huge accumulation.

Seven western New York counties were designated part of a major national disaster area and soldiers were dispatched from Fort Bragg in North Carolina to assist in the clean-up. It lasted well into February.

Although there was some looting and theft during the storm, it was mostly an episode that brought the community together. Stores and restaurants and hotels provided food and places to stay, often free. Agencies like the Salvation Army and the Red Cross as well as city and county departments worked continuously through the emergency to provide services. Individual people helped not only neighbors but strangers as well.

and this is the year 1977
321. jldfish
1:16 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
tnx st simons

I hope the pop is high inland here in SC we have been a mini drought here and i had to stetch hoses 200ft to water trees that i thought were established three years ago

what's "cape" I am readint the forcast out of Wilmington NC

tnx again
320. aquak9
1:14 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
stsimons, yes I remember your posts as well, I suppose we just might still be cussing and dis-cussing the weather long after hurricane season is over. And I was thinking earlier how these female storms have been beee- otches this year, hope we are wrong about Tammy. Anyway, the weather here in jax has made a complete change starting Sat 3pm...something's going on out there, the pine trees are wiggling thier fingers, the clouds are practicing exploding into the sky...yes something's going on out there..
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25506
317. jldfish
1:10 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
lefty

what's pop in last line of forcast also what is baroclinic system

I like Joe Gibbs but am from Orange Crush country so gotta go with Thunder at invesco field

316. leftyy420
1:08 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
be back later guys
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
315. 8888888889gg
1:05 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
dos any one have a link to the big blizzards that made landfall
314. leftyy420
1:04 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
j this is why


THE FRI THROUGH SUN PERIOD IS WHERE THE REAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT TREKKING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/DGEX/NOGAPS/UKMET ALL...TO SOME
DEGREE...DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT FRI OR SAT. THE CANADIAN IS
BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A MONSTROUS SUBTROPICAL LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. THE OTHERS EITHER DEVELOP A
DISCRETE WAVE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD OR BRING SOMETHING
OF A TROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS FL UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THAT
PERIOD. WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FRONT STALLING JUST
OFFSHORE BUT WITH DECENT COASTAL CONVERGENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN
ESSENCE...THE FCST WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER PART WITH
THE HIGHEST POP AND CLOUD COVER RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATERS.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
312. 8888888889gg
1:02 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
dos any one have a satellite or photo of a eye in a blizzard like hurricane so i can see it?
310. jhans624
12:57 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
why are we talking ne gulf and charlston and Jacksonville?
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 19
309. 8888888889gg
12:56 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
dos a blizzard get a name? any one no that if no why?
306. 8888888889gg
12:52 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
can a blizzards be like a hurricane too and can they get a eye too and do they get a name and dos any one have a photo of a blizzards like hurricane that has a eye any one no this ? let me no
304. dcw
12:51 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Yes, 888888888888889, they can. There was a Mediteranian (spelling?) "hurricane" once, only there was snow in the eyewall and it was January :P
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
303. tornadoty
12:50 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Arlene- strongest June storm since Allison '95

Cindy- borderline TS/Cat. 1

Emily- borderline cat. 4/5 (strongest July hurricane on record)

Gert- minimal tropical storm (the outcast)

Irene- cat. 2, long transition to extratropical

Katrina- 5th strongest ever, 3rd strongest ever to strike the US, deadliest US hurricane since 1928, possibly cat. 5 landfall

Maria- cat. 3 in Atlantic

Ophelia- incredibly destructibe for a cat. 1

Rita- 14th strongest to strike US, 3rd strongest ever, possibly cat. 4 landfall

Tammy- ?

Wilma- ?


Look at it this way: Once we reach the Greek Alphabet, there will be no more female names this year. :)
302. cornflake826
12:48 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
i hope its not a sign for something to come. Katrina and Rita were enough for S Fla this year.
301. cornflake826
12:47 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
good evening everyone, just a thought about the ants connection and tc's, here in Dania Fl we have been getting downpours all day long, however I have noticed all these black ants crawling up my house, they are everywhere. I cant think in the last 4 years I have had any ant problem living here. Except for your occasional fire ant pile. But I have not had black ants ever.
299. 8888888889gg
12:43 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
can a blizzards be like a hurricane too and can they get a eye too and do they get a name and dos any one have a photo of a blizzards like hurricane that has a eye any one no this ? let me no
298. leftyy420
12:42 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
i think a cat 2 or higher storm and wherew it will be i don;t know but tell u this much, ia m trying to make plans to chase her if she comes close to va beach. so to answer ur question, i think we wil have a cyclone and it will be tammy and remebr thos women this year
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
296. leftyy420
12:40 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
yeah st. i live in northern va. it snowed almost 3 days in the blizzard of 96. we had over 2 feet and it came down so heavy at times it was accompained by thunder. i was 16 than. i also was not into weather like i am today and would love to track a blizzard like that this year
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
295. leftyy420
12:37 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
ur welcome siesta
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
293. leftyy420
12:35 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
its pretty much the same map just different colors and mine is more specifric if u will. he also notes the heat content ion the gulf could support atleast a cat 2 so it should not be a problem with stan reaching cat 1 status and the ships makes him a 95mph hurricane in 72 hrs so we will see what happens. i personally think he will stall in the bay but eventually make landfall like roxanne in 95
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
292. Siesta5328
12:33 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Lefty, Thank you very much for your explanation.
291. leftyy420
12:33 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
yeah st, i remebr that post and i have noticed the trnd myself. i expect this winter to be a good one. thank good i don;t use gas or oil to heat my house lol. plus my house , actually apartment, is on the top floor so i actually get good heating from the lower untis so in the winter i barely have to run the heat lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
289. leftyy420
12:31 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
st i expect a huge winter here in the north east. hope we get a 96 blizzard type storm. nothing like 2 feet of snow lol. plus i want to experience thunder snow again. that was awsome
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
287. leftyy420
12:30 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
st, there is a msall cool eddy but the majority of the bay is extremely warm and he will likley reach hurricane status with ease.

Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
285. leftyy420
12:28 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
not really as its not the air tempature but the sun that gives the tropics there heat. it might make it a slow season to start but the reason the season peak is sept is that the time from spring till late summer the sun is at its highest angle and heats the tropics vary effiecently. so the key is how hot or cold the waters in the tropics are and roight now we appear to be in a cycle of hotter watter temps. this years temps are 2-4 degress hotter than normal. so it would be hard to not have that trend continue next year. also if we don't have any storms in the carribean those temps could play into stronger guilf staorm and nor easters this winter. if u look at the carribean there waters are really hot as we have not had any storms to take that heat away and the currents can only do so much. so this winter will be brutal. if any one remebrs our last crazy season, 1995, that janurary we had one of the worse blizzards in the north east and that storm even had gale force wonds as it formed over florida. so this winter will be colder and wetter basically. but those water temps are really tied to sunlight more and not air tempature
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
283. cctxshirl
12:23 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
I still have my eye on Stan and will until he goes into Mexico.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 333
282. AySz88
12:22 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Found the "LonLat" option - no disagreement with the NHC after all. :p
Just jumpy about wobbles, I guess.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.